2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:03 · Drue Chrisman punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Maurice Thomas at the MiaOh 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:16: J.K. Dobbins run for 26 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:36: Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 53 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:04: Justin Fields run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:37: Justin Fields run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:06: Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4M-OH made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 12:34M-OH 4th & 7 at OSU 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 11:00M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 42, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:25M-OH 4th & 3 at OSU 3, up 2Close callKicked a field goal · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call2.5%−0.193% to makePunt2.0%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:03M-OH 4th & 6 at OSU 48, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 2:03OSU 4th & 14 at OSU 30, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%average punt
- Q1 0:13M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 25, down 2Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:34M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 24, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 9:40OSU 4th & 2 at M-OH 13, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%56% to convertField goal97.6%−0.185% to makePunt97.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 2:40M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 25, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 1:01OSU 4th & 3 at M-OH 26, up 37Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−<0.152% to convertField goal99.6%64% to makePunt99.3%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:22OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 31, up 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 11:42M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 20, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 9:21M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 22, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 6:53M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 25, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:25M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 29, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:05M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 39, down 65Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 5:16OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:36OSU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:04OSU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:37OSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:06OSU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:14OSU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53OSU Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:00OSU Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:15OSU Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:59OSU Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:02OSU Touchdown, up 71 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 2:101% → 1%
OSUDrive 2SF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2499% → 99%
M-OHDrive 3FG16 plays · 66 yds · 4:052% → 2%
Q1 11:00
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+12
98.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
98.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 13 yds to the OhSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+7
98.2%
Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Homer, Andrew, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Werner, Pete) 7 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIOH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q1 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
97.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 9 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
97.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 7 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
97.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 6 yds to the OHIOST 47 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Bart Baratti) to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 0:582% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5698% → 97%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 6 yds to the OhSt 26Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-7
97.5%
Justin Fields sacked by Zedrick Raymond and Doug Costin for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
97.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Maurice Thomas at the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:383% → 3%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
97.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Baron Browning for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+10
97.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Luke Mayock for 10 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD3 plays · 67 yds · 0:2897% → 98%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
97.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 53 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Jeff Okudah return for no gain to the MiaOh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD3 plays · 41 yds · 0:1898% → 98%
M-OHDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:092% → 2%
OSUDrive 12TD11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4398% → 99%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
98.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 24 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
98.3%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Dobbins, J.K., PENALTY MIAMIOH roughing passer 15 yards to the MIAMIOH21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
98.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13FUMBLE7 plays · 3 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.8%
Jackson Williamson pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-7
98.7%
Jackson Williamson sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 28 Jackson Williamson fumbled, forced by Chase Young, recovered by OhSt Tyler Friday , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD4 plays · 28 yds · 0:5199% → 100%
M-OHDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 2:050% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD4 plays · 20 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
99.6%
Fields, Justin pass complete to Mack, Austin for 20 yards to the MIAMIOH0, PENALTY OHIOST holding 10 yards to the MIAMIOH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+30
99.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 30 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.8%
Jackson Williamson sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 33 Jackson Williamson fumbled, forced by Chase Young, recovered by OhSt Tyler Friday , return for 0 yards OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MiaOh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD6 plays · 33 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
M-OHDrive 19END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:260% → 0%
OSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q3 14:01
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
99.8%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q3 11:42
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+52
99.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 52 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
M-OHDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+30
99.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 45 yds, downed at the OHIOST 33, MIAMI OH Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Zedrick Raymond) to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD2 plays · 52 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
M-OHDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:490% → 0%
OSUDrive 26TD11 plays · 70 yds · 4:22100% → 100%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Ellijah Gardiner for 10 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 11
50
+5
99.9%
Chugunov, Chris pass incomplete to Wilson, Garrett, PENALTY MIAMIOH offside 5 yards to the MIAMIOH45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Jameson Williams for 13 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Jake Hausmann for 9 yds to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Marcus Crowley for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:280% → 0%
OSUDrive 28TD4 plays · 79 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
M-OHDrive 29PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 4:310% → 0%
Q4 9:05
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaelen Gill at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 30TD10 plays · 76 yds · 5:41100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Steele Chambers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominic DiMaccio PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 31END OF GAME2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:37
Justin Fields run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 14:04
Justin Fields run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 14:36
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 53 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+0.5