2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreCIN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:24 · James Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:40: J.K. Dobbins 4 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick) — OSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:26: J.K. Dobbins 60 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick) — OSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:53: Garrett Wilson 9 Yd pass from Justin Fields (Blake Haubeil Kick) — OSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40: Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29 — CIN win probability +5.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:20: Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30 — OSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 11:23OSU 4th & 12 at CIN 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.1%−<0.124% to convertField goal83.1%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call83.1%average punt
- Q1 9:59CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q1 6:02CIN 4th & 16 at CIN 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.2%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.4%average punt
- Q1 2:41OSU 4th & 1 at CIN 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.3%71% to convertField goal82.9%−0.575% to makePunt81.4%−1.9average punt
- Q1 0:05CIN 4th & 1 at OSU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.9%70% to convertField goal16.7%−1.223% to makePunt17.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 11:29CIN 4th & 2 at OSU 14, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call18.1%−0.484% to makePunt15.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 8:06CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q2 5:24CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 45, down 21Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:14CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q3 11:38CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 45, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q3 9:10OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 46, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 7:24CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 6, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 10:07CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 35, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:45OSU 4th & 5 at CIN 45, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%41% to convertField goal99.8%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:28OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.4%97% to makeGo for two83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:40OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.9%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:26OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:53OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:32OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:30OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 3:0783% → 82%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
82.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 10 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
82.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-10
82.7%
Fields, Justin rush for no gain to the CINCINNATI34, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Jackson, Jonah) 10 yards to the CINCINNATI44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+3
82.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0618% → 18%
Q1 9:59
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+3
81.8%
James Smith punt for 41 yds , Demario McCall returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD5 plays · 41 yds · 1:1282% → 83%
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+22
81.7%
Justin Fields run for 12 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
81.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 10 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1317% → 17%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
82.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 21 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-7
82.3%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Malik Harrison for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+7
82.7%
James Smith punt for 46 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 7 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0983% → 82%
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+32
82.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 22 yds K.J. Hill fumbled, recovered by OhSt for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
83.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
83.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6MISSED FG14 plays · 66 yds · 6:0918% → 19%
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+25
81.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 25 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
81.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Trent Cloud for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
81.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Trent Cloud for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+8
81.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 8 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+15
81.1%
Ridder, Desmond pass incomplete, PENALTY OHIOST roughing passer (Togiai, Tommy) 15 yards to the OHIOST22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CINCINNATI.Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
80.3%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Tyreke Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+13
80.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 13 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+32
81.3%
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chase Young Damon Arnette return for no gain to the OhSt 13 Damon Arnette fumbled, recovered by OhSt Tuf BorlandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD6 plays · 87 yds · 1:4082% → 88%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
82.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 20 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
83.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 6 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+12
83.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 12 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
83.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 21 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5413% → 13%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
86.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Shaun Wade for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 26 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by Cincy Chris Ferguson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+3
86.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+9
87.0%
James Smith punt for 41 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 9 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD4 plays · 61 yds · 0:1088% → 94%
CINDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:508% → 7%
Q2 5:24
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
92.7%
James Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD8 plays · 88 yds · 3:0795% → 98%
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+24
94.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
50
+39
95.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 39 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:261% → 2%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+9
98.2%
James Smith punt for 46 yds , K.J. Hill returns for 9 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 18 yds · 1:0798% → 99%
CINDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:027% → 1%
Q3 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
98.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Trent Cloud for 4 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-8
99.0%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
99.1%
James Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q3 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+5
99.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Brown) to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 9 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+9
99.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+50
99.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the OHIOST 8 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (4 Yards) to the Cincy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:261% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17TD9 plays · 54 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q3 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+16
99.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 16 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18INT7 plays · 53 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+46
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 46 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+6
99.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tavion Thomas for 6 yds to the OhSt 7Similar
Q3 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+42
99.8%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Tuf Borland return for 42 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD12 plays · 55 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.8%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Mack, Austin, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Bryant, Coby) 15 yards to the CINCINNATI25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 9Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Fields, Justin pass sacked for loss of 11 yards to the CINCINNATI20 (Pitts, Michael), PENALTY CINCINNATI holding 4 yards to the CINCINNATI5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 10:15
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Brendon White for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
CINDrive 22FUMBLE11 plays · 79 yds · 4:500% → 0%
Q4 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
100.0%
Tavion Thomas run for 15 yds Tavion Thomas fumbled, recovered by OhSt Marcus WilliamsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23END OF GAME4 plays · 16 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:26
J.K. Dobbins 60 Yd Run (Blake Haubeil Kick)
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:40
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29
-5.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:20
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30
+5