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NU

Northwestern 15 at Wisconsin 24

WIS
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.5WIS 94.0%Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds for aTD, (Collin Larsh KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 7 · Q1 9:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:16 · Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+42.3Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. SACK · Q3 2:34: Hunter Johnson sacked by Eric Burrell for a loss of 16 yards Hunter Johnson fumbled, forced by Eric Burrell, recovered by Wisc Matt Henningsen , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +8.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 12:58: Collin Larsh 36 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +3.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:29: Aidan Smith pass intercepted by Noah Burks return 68 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:45: Drake Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NU win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:10: Aidan Smith pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NU win probability +7.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 11NU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 9:16WIS 4th & 2 at NU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:46WIS 4th & 3 at NU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:37NU 4th & 9 at WIS 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:20NU 4th & 3 at NU 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:52WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:03NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:04WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 48, up 4
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:33NU 4th & 6 at NU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:17NU 4th & 10 at NU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:12NU 4th & 17 at NU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:32WIS 4th & 4 at NU 36, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.8
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:27NU 4th & 11 at NU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:18WIS 4th & 5 at NU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:20NU 4th & 13 at NU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:43WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:15NU 4th & 9 at NU 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:58WIS 4th & 3 at NU 18, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−3.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:36NU 4th & 6 at NU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:27WIS 4th & 6 at NU 38, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:31NU 4th & 1 at WIS 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.0
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:55WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:36NU 4th & 19 at WIS 40, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:16WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:29WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:45NU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.7%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:10NU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.6%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:1195% → 94%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
94.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
94.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 6
50
+16
94.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 16 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
94.3%
Jack Coan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
94.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+5
94.0%
Mason Stokke run for 5 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
93.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
93.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+3
93.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+13
94.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:016% → 6%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
93.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
93.8%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4394% → 94%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
93.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 6 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
93.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
93.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
93.7%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
93.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 3
OPP 48
+42
93.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 37 yds , Riley Lees returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 49 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Ruiz) to the Nwest 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:037% → 8%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
93.4%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 3Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+3
93.4%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 9
OWN 6
-3
93.4%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Rashawn Slater) to the Nwest 3Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+1
93.2%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 4Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 11
OWN 4
+15
93.3%
Kubiuk, Daniel punt 41 yards to the NORTHWSTRN45, Dunn, Jack return 0 yards to the NORTHWSTRN45, PENALTY WISCONSIN face mask (Wildgoose, Rachad) 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+31
93.0%
Drake Anderson run for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
50
+12
92.5%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 12 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
92.5%
Hunter Johnson run for 25 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
92.3%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-2
92.1%
Hunter Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
92.3%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Charlie MangieriSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
91.8%
Charlie Kuhbander 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3192% → 91%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
91.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Mason StokkeSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+2
91.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+7
91.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 7 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:179% → 9%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
91.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
91.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-2
90.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
91.1%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0191% → 90%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
90.8%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
90.6%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+4
90.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 4 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+43
90.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 43 yds , Riley Lees returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:379% → 9%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.6%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
90.4%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
90.5%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Drake Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
90.6%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3490% → 90%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
90.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Travis Whillock for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 16
OWN 38
0
89.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for no gain to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+10
89.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 10 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Anthony Lotti punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 4:2510% → 12%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
89.6%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Trent GoensSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+11
89.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 11 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.0%
Hunter Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
88.7%
Hunter Johnson run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+8
88.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 8 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.9%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-2
88.0%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+6
88.6%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
87.9%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 50 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1488% → 88%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
87.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 7 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
87.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+4
87.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.8%
Jack Coan pass intercepted JR Pace return for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:2812% → 11%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
88.2%
Hunter Johnson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
87.6%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah BowserSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
88.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
88.8%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:0588% → 88%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
87.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 12 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
87.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
87.1%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+13
86.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 13 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
87.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 11 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1814% → 14%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
85.6%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
85.7%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Matt Henningsen for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 18Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
86.3%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:2386% → 86%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
86.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 15 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
86.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
86.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
87.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
86.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4315% → 15%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
84.7%
Kyric McGowan run for no gain to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-2
85.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
85.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 48 yds, downed at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4285% → 84%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
85.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 14 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
86.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+6
84.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
85.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jonathan TaylorSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
84.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3017% → 17%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.7%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-1
81.9%
Hunter Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-8
82.5%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 17Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+3
83.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 46 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 3 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1785% → 83%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
84.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 41Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
84.1%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+5
83.0%
Jack Coan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+17
82.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 45 yds , Riley Lees returns for 17 yds to the WISCONSIN 37 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20FUMBLE TD
1 play · -16 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
91.5%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Eric Burrell for a loss of 16 yards Hunter Johnson fumbled, forced by Eric Burrell, recovered by Wisc Matt Henningsen , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:139% → 8%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
91.6%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
91.7%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
92.1%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
92.1%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0292% → 96%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
92.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
50
+6
92.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
92.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 19 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
92.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
92.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
92.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 5 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
95.6%
Collin Larsh 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23INT TD
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:186% → 1%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
93.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
93.5%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
93.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 10 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.4%
Aidan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
93.3%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+68
99.0%
Aidan Smith pass intercepted by Noah Burks return 68 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:491% → 1%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.1%
Hunter Johnson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.1%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.1%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 39 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 32 Jack Dunn fumbled, recovered by Nwest Raymond Niro IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:241% → 5%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.0%
Drake Anderson run for 9 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
98.9%
Aidan Smith run for 2 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
98.9%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to JJ Jefferson for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Faion Hicks) to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.9%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Wisc 12Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
98.9%
Aidan Smith run for 8 yds to the Wisc 4Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
95.1%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:344% → 4%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.6%
Aidan Smith run for 6 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
95.6%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
95.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.7%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5397% → 97%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Nwest 42 Jonathan Taylor fumbled, recovered by Wisc Jonathan TaylorSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
97.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
97.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to A.J. TaylorSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 21 yds, downed at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 1:554% → 12%
Q4 6:05
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+8
96.2%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 8 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
96.5%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 7 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.2%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
96.3%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 12 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
96.3%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 11 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.7%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
95.7%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
96.5%
Aidan Smith run for 9 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
96.2%
Aidan Smith run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
96.1%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to Riley Lees for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
88.2%
Aidan Smith pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:0292% → 94%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
92.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 12 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
93.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
94.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-2
94.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+13
94.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 50 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 13 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
96.7%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
50
+19
96.3%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Riley Lees for 19 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.8%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
95.9%
Aidan Smith pass incomplete to Berkeley HolmanSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-9
95.9%
Aidan Smith sacked by Collin Wilder for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 19
OPP 40
+13
96.8%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Riley Lees for 13 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1096% → 96%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SACK · Q3 2:34
Hunter Johnson sacked by Eric Burrell for a loss of 16 yards Hunter Johnson fumbled, forced by Eric Burrell, recovered by Wisc Matt Henningsen , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q4 4:10
Aidan Smith pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-7.9
TD · Q4 11:29
Aidan Smith pass intercepted by Noah Burks return 68 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com