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UNLV

UNLV 14 at Northwestern 30

NU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:26 · Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal Grimes, broken up by Earnest Brown IV
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Pregame prior+1.1Home team on offense+26.0Garbage-time factor+6.9Score differential+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:21: Charlie Kuhbander 33 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +1.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:56: Charles Williams run for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:19: Charlie Kuhbander 44 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +1.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:58: Hunter Johnson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 50 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +11.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:30: Drake Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NU 4th & 3 at UNLV 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21NU 4th & 9 at UNLV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14UNLV 4th & 1 at NU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:01NU 4th & 10 at UNLV 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:55UNLV 4th & 4 at UNLV 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:19NU 4th & 7 at UNLV 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:04NU 4th & 3 at UNLV 40, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−1.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:07UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 28, down 2
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:50UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:44NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00NU 4th & 4 at UNLV 34, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:22NU 4th & 8 at NU 31, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:11UNLV 4th & 13 at NU 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:11NU 4th & 15 at UNLV 42, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:43UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 15, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:26UNLV 4th & 6 at NU 38, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:32NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:14UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:56UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:58NU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:30NU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2887% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.7%
Jesse Brown run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
86.7%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Charlie Mangieri, broken up by Evan AustrieSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+35
86.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 20 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
86.7%
Jesse Brown run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
86.7%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+2
86.7%
Jesse Brown run for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+16
86.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 16 yds to the UNLV 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
86.7%
Drake Anderson run for 13 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.5%
Hunter Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:1114% → 15%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
86.4%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
86.3%
Armani Rogers run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+65
85.4%
Charles Williams run for 65 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 4:5386% → 85%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
85.6%
Johnson, Hunter pass incomplete to Skowronek, B, PENALTY NU pass interference (Skowronek, B) 13 yards to the NU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+14
85.5%
Hunter Johnson run for 14 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
85.5%
Johnson, Hunter pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY UNLV pass interference (FLOWERS, J.) 15 yards to the NU42, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
85.7%
Jesse Brown run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
85.8%
Jesse Brown run for 9 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
85.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 8 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+8
85.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
85.9%
Jesse Brown run for 12 yds to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
85.9%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Jericho Flowers for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 17
OPP 23
+8
85.8%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
85.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowan, broken up by Myles PlummerSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
84.6%
Charlie Kuhbander 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.5%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
84.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Randal Grimes for 8 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+30
84.2%
Armani Rogers run for 30 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
83.9%
Tyleek Collins run for 7 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+1
83.9%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
84.1%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
84.3%
Armani Rogers run for 1 yd to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
83.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyree Jackson for 1 yd Tyree Jackson fumbled, forced by Travis Whillock, recovered by Nwest Joe GazianoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+35
83.5%
Jesse Brown run for 35 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
84.2%
Jesse Brown run for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+11
84.2%
Hunter Johnson run for 11 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.4%
Hunter Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. Javin White return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:3517% → 24%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.1%
Tyleek Collins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
83.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 7 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
83.1%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
82.4%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
82.2%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
81.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Randal Grimes for 5 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
81.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 6 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
81.7%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-5
81.7%
ROGERS, Armani pass complete to JENKINS, Steve for 19 yards to the NU23, out-of-bounds (Williams, Trae), PENALTY UNLV ineligible downfield on pass (BRAYTON, Matt) 5 yards to the NU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+10
82.0%
Armani Rogers run for 10 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+37
76.2%
Charles Williams run for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:4878% → 77%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
77.7%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+13
77.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 13 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
78.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+26
78.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 11 yds to the NORTHWSTRN 40 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
79.6%
Drake Anderson run for 9 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
79.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 4 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
77.3%
Johnson, Hunter pass complete to McGowan, Kyric for 12 yards to the UNLV0, clock 07:49, PENALTY NU ineligible downfield on pass (Urban, Nik) 5 yards to the UNLV17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+7
77.3%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
77.3%
Jesse Brown run for 3 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-5
76.5%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Rashawn Slater) to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
76.5%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse BrownSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
76.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
74.5%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
74.4%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Randal Grimes for 10 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
73.6%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Charles Williams for 8 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-2
73.1%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
73.4%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal GrimesSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
74.7%
Hayes Hicken punt for 42 yds, downed at the Nwest 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:2675% → 79%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+31
74.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 16 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Drew Tejchman) to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
76.6%
Drake Anderson run for 10 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
77.2%
Hunter Johnson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
77.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 4 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
77.9%
Hunter Johnson run for 3 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
77.9%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Rayshad JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
77.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Drake AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
78.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5923% → 23%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.4%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
77.6%
Armani Rogers run for 2 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+6
77.9%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
77.4%
Hayes Hicken punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
77.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0023% → 26%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
76.9%
Charles Williams run for 12 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
75.5%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
75.7%
Tyleek Collins run for 5 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
75.3%
Armani Rogers run for 5 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
74.7%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 13 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+26
73.9%
Armani Rogers pass intercepted Paddy Fisher return for 11 yds to the Nwest 15 Paddy Fisher fumbled, forced by Darren Woods Jr., recovered by Nwest Travis Whillock NORTHWESTERN Penalty, IB (JR Pace) to the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
76.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Charlie Mangieri, broken up by Rayshad JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
76.1%
Drake Anderson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
75.9%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
76.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 15 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.9%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowan, broken up by Myles PlummerSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
77.2%
Drake Anderson run for 12 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
76.5%
Johnson, Hunter pass incomplete to Chiaokhiao-Bowm, PENALTY NU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY UNLV pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
78.9%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
79.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
78.6%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Bennett SkowronekSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
77.4%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 39 yds, downed at the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+19
75.1%
Armani Rogers run for 19 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.7%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 9 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
74.6%
Darran Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 9:07
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+8
76.3%
Hayes Hicken punt for 40 yds , Riley Lees returns for 8 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:3876% → 88%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
76.1%
Drake Anderson run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
50
+50
87.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 50 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
85.8%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
86.0%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-3
86.6%
Armani Rogers sacked by Samdup Miller and Alex Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
87.3%
Hayes Hicken punt for 55 yds, downed at the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.9%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
86.7%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
86.8%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+3
86.1%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 33 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for 3 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
86.0%
Armani Rogers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40 Armani Rogers fumbled, forced by Earnest Brown IV, recovered by Nwest Travis WhillockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3489% → 87%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
88.6%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
88.8%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-3
88.1%
Hunter Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+3
87.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to John Moten IV for 3 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
86.2%
Armani Rogers sacked by Earnest Brown IV and Chris Bergin for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-3
86.9%
Tyleek Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
87.8%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Charles Williams, broken up by Greg Newsome IISimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+9
88.2%
Hayes Hicken punt for 53 yds , Riley Lees returns for 9 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.4%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
87.4%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
86.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Rayshad JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
86.0%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 34 yds, downed at the UNLV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:2313% → 11%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
87.5%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 16 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
85.7%
ROGERS, Armani pass incomplete to JENKINS, Steve, QB hurry by Fisher, Paddy, PENALTY NU pass interference (Williams, Trae) 15 yards to the NU34, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
84.9%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
84.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
86.1%
ROGERS, Armani pass incomplete to GRIMES, Randal (Newsome, Greg), PENALTY NU pass interference (Newsome, Greg) 15 yards to the NU17, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
84.5%
Tyleek Collins run for no gain to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
84.7%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Steve Jenkins, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-3
86.1%
Armani Rogers sacked by Joe Gaziano and Joe Spivak for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 20 UNLV Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+38
88.7%
Daniel Gutierrez 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
14 plays · 38 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.3%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
88.4%
Hunter Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
87.9%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
88.6%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-5
88.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
88.2%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+15
87.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 15 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
89.4%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+8
89.5%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
89.6%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+1
89.2%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+2
88.6%
John Moten IV run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 10
OPP 37
-5
87.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 42Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 15
OPP 42
+4
87.3%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 34 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for 4 yds to the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
93.9%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Charles Williams for 7 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-4
93.4%
Armani Rogers sacked by Earnest Brown IV for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
94.3%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 7
OWN 15
-8
94.6%
Armani Rogers sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 7 Armani Rogers fumbled, recovered by UNLV , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.3%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
97.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 11 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
97.2%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Noah Bean for 16 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
96.9%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal Grimes, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
97.0%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Charles Williams, broken up by Paddy FisherSimilar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+4
97.1%
Armani Rogers pass complete to Randal Grimes for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
97.1%
Armani Rogers pass incomplete to Randal Grimes, broken up by Earnest Brown IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:58
Hunter Johnson pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 50 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q2 10:56
Charles Williams run for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q4 1:30
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com