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Northwestern 7 at Stanford 17

STAN
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:08 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 34 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:12: K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 2 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +6.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:49: John Moten IV 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +22.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:30: Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Stanf 44 — NU win probability +16.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:42: Hunter Johnson pass incomplete — STAN win probability +8.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:49: Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 21 — STAN win probability +10.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 10:38STAN 4th & 4 at NU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09STAN 4th & 9 at NU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48NU 4th & 2 at NU 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08STAN 4th & 10 at NU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:34NU 4th & 1 at NU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:40NU 4th & 6 at STAN 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:20NU 4th & 9 at STAN 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−7.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:57STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:39STAN 4th & 9 at NU 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:15STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:20NU 4th & 1 at STAN 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−2.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:58NU 4th & 13 at NU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:30STAN 4th & 3 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 3:12STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:49NU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:20STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:1472% → 71%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
71.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+8
71.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
71.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 15 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
71.7%
K.J. Costello run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-5
71.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+8
71.4%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 8 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
71.4%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+1
71.2%
K.J. Costello run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1529% → 29%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
70.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
70.5%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
70.6%
Hunter Johnson pass intercepted Andrew Pryts return for no gain to the Nwest 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4071% → 71%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
71.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
71.3%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
71.1%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
70.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0729% → 29%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
70.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
70.5%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 3 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
70.5%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
70.7%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 53 yds , Michael Wilson returns for no gain to the Stanf 18 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 47 yds · 8:0870% → 69%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
70.2%
Dorian Maddox run for 8 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
70.3%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
69.8%
Dorian Maddox run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
69.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 21Similar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+8
69.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+3
69.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+21
68.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 21 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
70.5%
K.J. Costello run for 7 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+6
70.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 6 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
70.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Connor Wedington for 4 yds Connor Wedington fumbled, recovered by Stanf Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-10
70.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+8
69.7%
Dorian Maddox run for 8 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-3
70.0%
K.J. Costello sacked by Earnest Brown IV for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
68.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2132% → 34%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
67.6%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
67.7%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
67.7%
Hunter Johnson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
66.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
65.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
65.6%
Hunter Johnson run for no gain to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+48
66.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 48 yds , Michael Wilson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
17 plays · 90 yds · 8:1468% → 78%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
67.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 7 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
67.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 2 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+1
66.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
67.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
67.6%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
68.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 17 yds to the Stanf 48 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
68.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
69.0%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+27
68.8%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Dorian Maddox for 27 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
69.7%
Dorian Maddox run for 2 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
69.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 9 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
69.6%
K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
69.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Nwest 2Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.7%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 2 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:1924% → 24%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
75.6%
TJ Green pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 14 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
74.3%
TJ Green pass complete to Riley Lees for 8 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
73.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
73.5%
TJ Green pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
72.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 43Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
73.4%
TJ Green run for 13 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+8
74.0%
TJ Green pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 8 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
71.0%
TJ Green run for 1 yd to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
73.0%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
75.7%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:2877% → 82%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
76.9%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Michael Wilson for 8 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+1
78.3%
K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Scarlett for 1 yd to the Stanf 43Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
77.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
77.8%
K.J. Costello run for 4 yds to the STANFORD 48 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (-1 Yards) to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+51
82.3%
Jet Toner 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:1722% → 23%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.3%
TJ Green pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
77.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.3%
TJ Green pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
77.6%
TJ Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+23
79.7%
TJ Green pass complete to Jesse Brown for 23 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
77.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+15
76.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 15 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
76.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 11 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Stanf 5Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
76.9%
TJ Green sacked by Curtis Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 9 TJ Green fumbled, recovered by StanfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:4381% → 82%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+26
80.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 26 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
81.2%
Davis Mills run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
82.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 4 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+18
81.8%
Davis Mills run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 21 Davis Mills fumbled, recovered by Nwest Greg Newsome II , return for 18 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4922% → 19%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
77.7%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse BrownSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
78.1%
Jesse Brown run for 1 yd to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
79.4%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
80.9%
Charlie Kuhbander 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1382% → 82%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 9 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
82.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
81.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
82.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 13 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Osiris St. BrownSimilar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
83.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
82.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
81.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3118% → 17%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
81.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
81.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 7 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-5
82.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
83.1%
Hunter Johnson pass intercepted Paulson Adebo return for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2385% → 84%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
85.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 26 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Colby ParkinsonSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
85.5%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+1
84.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Nwest 11Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
83.6%
Jet Toner 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4717% → 16%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
83.3%
John Moten IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+17
83.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 17 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
82.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to John Moten IV for 13 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.5%
John Moten IV run for no gain to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
82.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-9
83.8%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Dalyn Wade-Perry for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 40 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 19
OWN 40
0
84.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 44 yds, downed at the Stanf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1285% → 86%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
85.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 6 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
85.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Colby Parkinson for 3 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
84.8%
Dorian Maddox run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
86.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Houston Heimuli for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
86.3%
Davis Mills run for 1 yd to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
86.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+20
85.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds , Riley Lees returns for 20 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:2917% → 39%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
50
0
83.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
50
+10
83.5%
Hunter Johnson run for 10 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
83.3%
John Moten IV run for 4 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+13
84.0%
Hunter Johnson run for 13 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
83.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (J.J. Parson) to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.9%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Charlie MangieriSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
84.0%
Hunter Johnson run for 4 yds to the Stanf 11Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
86.5%
Jesse Brown run for 5 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
87.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
85.5%
John Moten IV run for 1 yd to the Stanf 3Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.7%
John Moten IV 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
60.7%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 1 Hunter Johnson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Hunter JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0374% → 77%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
73.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 17 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
76.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+15
76.6%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Greg Newsome II) to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
78.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 3 yds to the Nwest 28 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 17
OPP 38
-1
76.7%
Davis Mills run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+6
76.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-2
76.7%
Davis Mills run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 35 Davis Mills fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3240% → 28%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
50
+6
60.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
65.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-12
59.3%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-12 Yards) to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 16
OWN 44
0
67.4%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+3
68.8%
Hunter Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 13
OWN 47
+35
72.4%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STANFORD 18 STANFORD Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Kick ( Yards) to the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:1983% → 95%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
82.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 21Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+12
85.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 12 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
87.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
90.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
92.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 3
50
0
94.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -22 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
97.1%
Jordan Fox 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jet Toner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
96.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:49
John Moten IV 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
-22.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:30
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Stanf 44
-16.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:49
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 21
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com