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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 7 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:39: Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 55 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +6.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:03: Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +5.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:11: Collin Larsh 24 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:50: Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +11.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:19: Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 23 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK) — NEB win probability +12.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 15:00NEB 4th & 17 at WIS 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snapGo for it19.2%−0.115% to convertField goal19.2%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q1 5:16NEB 4th & 3 at WIS 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.6%53% to convertField goal24.3%−0.249% to makePunt24.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00WIS 4th & 6 at NEB 26, tiedClose callWent for it · 73.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.7%−0.139% to convertField goal73.7%64% to makePunt72.0%−1.8average punt
- Q2 11:22WIS 4th & 4 at NEB 13, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call71.8%−0.285% to makePunt69.0%−3.0average punt
- Q2 4:23NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%average punt
- Q2 0:11WIS 4th & 6 at NEB 6, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snapGo for it79.4%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call79.6%91% to makePunt77.1%−2.5average punt
- Q3 14:52WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 21, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it81.0%−1.827% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%average punt
- Q3 10:19NEB 4th & 10 at WIS 24, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snapGo for it17.7%−0.628% to convertField goalTheir call18.2%68% to makePunt14.6%−3.6average punt
- Q4 15:00WIS 4th & 3 at NEB 48, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it90.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%−1.0average punt
- Q4 14:09NEB 4th & 4 at WIS 17, down 13Close callWent for it · 15.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.4%−0.147% to convertField goal15.5%80% to makePunt11.2%−4.3average punt
- Q4 5:25WIS 4th & 3 at NEB 12, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.5%50% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%−0.686% to makePunt89.4%−5.0average punt
- Q4 2:20NEB 4th & 4 at WIS 4, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%40% to convertField goal3.4%−1.193% to makePunt2.3%−2.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 5:27NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.6%97% to makeGo for two26.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:32NEB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.3%97% to makeGo for two33.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:39WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:03WIS Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:50WIS Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:19NEB Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.3%97% to makeGo for two12.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
WISDrive 2FUMBLE5 plays · 44 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
50
+13
20.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 13 yds Jonathan Taylor fumbled, forced by JoJo Domann, recovered by Neb Lamar JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD5 plays · 63 yds · 1:4823% → 27%
Q1 7:15
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+22
22.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 22 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
WISDrive 6FG10 plays · 53 yds · 4:4475% → 74%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+7
25.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 7 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD7 plays · 73 yds · 1:4627% → 36%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+38
26.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Jack Stoll for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, roughing passer (Zack Baun) to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+14
29.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 14 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD6 plays · 86 yds · 2:4666% → 74%
Q2 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+10
33.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 10 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
33.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 12 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+55
26.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 55 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
28.6%
Adrian Martinez pass intercepted Jack Sanborn return for 11 yds to the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD3 plays · 21 yds · 1:2574% → 80%
NEBDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4021% → 20%
WISDrive 12FG14 plays · 73 yds · 3:5579% → 86%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
20.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 12 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
19.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez Cephus, broken up by Ben StilleSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+12
20.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 12 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
NEBDrive 15MISSED FG7 plays · 33 yds · 3:1019% → 19%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
19.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 12 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
19.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 21 yds to the Wisc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-20
21.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 20 yards to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 25
OPP 39
+15
18.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 15 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD9 plays · 76 yds · 5:2984% → 97%
Q3 10:19
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+12
14.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 12 yds to the Neb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 17TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:316% → 20%
WISDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 3:1688% → 89%
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+11
12.2%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Ferguson, Jake, PENALTY NEB pass interference (Eric Lee Jr.) 11 yards to the WIS45, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+6
11.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 6 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+4
10.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 4 yds to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 81 yds · 0:0013% → 16%
WISDrive 20FG10 plays · 73 yds · 5:2792% → 97%
Q4 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+14
7.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 14 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21DOWNS16 plays · 74 yds · 3:055% → 4%
Q4 5:25
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+20
4.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wyatt Mazour for 20 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
5.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 47Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+6
4.9%
Adrian Martinez sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NEB48 (Sanborn, Jack), PENALTY WIS offside defense (Burton, Donte) 6 yards to the WIS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+36
5.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 36 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
3.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wyatt Mazour for 3 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22END OF GAME6 plays · 32 yds · 0:4898% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:19
Adrian Martinez pass complete to JD Spielman for 23 yds for a TD (Barret Pickering KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q3 4:50
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 6:39
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 55 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
-6