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MINN

Minnesota 38 at Northwestern 22

NU
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:24 · Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Nwest 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:03: Rashod Bateman 10 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick) — MINN win probability +4.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:52: Jace James 9 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +4.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:03: Rashod Bateman 7 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick) — MINN win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:27: Andrew Marty 2 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +7.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:20: Tyler Johnson 17 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick) — MINN win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:40NU 4th & 14 at NU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50NU 4th & 14 at NU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:46NU 4th & 9 at NU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:41NU 4th & 18 at NU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:37MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:39NU 4th & 1 at NU 21, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:51NU 4th & 1 at MINN 16, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−2.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−8.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:53NU 4th & 6 at NU 42, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:14MINN 4th & 4 at NU 20, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:04MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:04MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:03MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:52NU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:03MINN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:27NU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:20MINN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:01NU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1511% → 12%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.1%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
11.3%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Kamal Martin for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
11.5%
Andrew David punt for 35 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for no gain to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:3689% → 88%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
11.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
11.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+8
11.9%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
12.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
12.4%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
12.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 12 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
12.9%
Tanner Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 20Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+14
12.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 14 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
13.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 0
OPP 9
-10
13.3%
Morgan, Tanner rush for 8 yards to the NORTHWSTRN1, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Faalele, Daniel) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
12.5%
Rashod Bateman 19 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0813% → 13%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.9%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-9
13.2%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Sam Renner for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
13.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
13.0%
Andrew David punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Nwest 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:4687% → 89%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
12.8%
Rodney Smith run for 13 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
12.9%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
13.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
13.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 11 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
11.5%
Shannon Brooks 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:1212% → 12%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
12.2%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
12.4%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
12.6%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.2%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
12.1%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-3
12.5%
Hunter Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
12.2%
Andrew David punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:4388% → 92%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
11.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 7 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+22
11.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 22 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
11.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
11.6%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+26
11.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 26 yds to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
11.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
11.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-5
11.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Curtis Dunlap Jr.) to the Nwest 10Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
7.7%
Rashod Bateman 10 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:209% → 8%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-20
8.7%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Antoine Winfield Jr. for a loss of 20 yards to the Nwest 15 Hunter Johnson fumbled, forced by Antoine Winfield Jr., recovered by Nwest Drake Anderson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 30
OWN 15
-2
8.4%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 13Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 32
OWN 13
+14
8.3%
Jesse Brown run for 14 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
8.2%
Andrew David punt for 67 yds, downed at the Minn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8SF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-6
8.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Minn 0 by Joe Gaziano, Team Safety. MINNESOTA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tanner Morgan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 6:3510% → 15%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
10.4%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
10.5%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
10.4%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.0%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
10.7%
Evan Hull run for 11 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
10.7%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-2
10.7%
Andrew Marty run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+11
10.5%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
10.7%
Jesse Brown run for 13 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
11.2%
Jesse Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+11
11.2%
Andrew Marty run for 11 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
11.2%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Minn 10Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
11.1%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Minn 9Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
15.4%
Jace James 9 Yd pass from Andrew Marty (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:0585% → 87%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
15.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 20 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
14.0%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
13.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-2
13.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Alex Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
13.3%
Jacob Herbers punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5814% → 14%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
14.1%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+5
14.2%
Andrew Marty run for 5 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+2
13.4%
Jesse Brown run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+2
13.6%
Andrew David punt for 35 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 2 yds to the Minn 46 Demetrius Douglas fumbled, recovered by Minn Demetrius DouglasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
12.2%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Blake Gallagher return for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3415% → 13%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
14.5%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 1 yd to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
14.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 31Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 19
OWN 31
+6
13.6%
Andrew Marty run for 6 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+6
13.1%
Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:5286% → 95%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
14.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
14.3%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
13.6%
Rodney Smith run for 13 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
12.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+11
12.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
12.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 14 yds to the Nwest 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
12.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
12.5%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Nwest 19Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+10
12.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 10 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
12.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.1%
Rashod Bateman 7 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:269% → 17%
Q3 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
8.6%
Andrew Marty pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.3%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
8.4%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 12 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
9.1%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Trey Pugh for 8 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
9.2%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
9.1%
Marty, Andrew pass incomplete to Lees, Riley, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN ineligible downfield on pass (Gerak, Sam) 5 yards to the MINNESOTA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+9
8.7%
Andrew Marty run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
9.4%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+9
9.0%
Drake Anderson run for 9 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
9.4%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Drake Anderson for 8 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
9.4%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
9.1%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
8.9%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
8.8%
Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Mariano Sori-Marin) to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
8.8%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Minn 2Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.7%
Andrew Marty 2 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 5:0389% → 97%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
10.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+20
10.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 20 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
10.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
10.3%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
9.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
9.2%
Smith, Rodney rush for no gain to the NORTHWSTRN23, PENALTY MINNESOTA personal foul (Autman-Bell, Chris) 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+8
9.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 8 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
10.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+6
10.2%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Douglas, Demetrius, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference (Fisher, Paddy) 6 yards to the NORTHWSTRN24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
9.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
9.8%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+17
2.6%
Tyler Johnson 17 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:204% → 4%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
4.4%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
4.3%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Andrew MartySimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
3.9%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:3997% → 99%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
2.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
2.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+14
2.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
2.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
2.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+25
2.0%
Seth Green run for 25 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
1.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
1.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+5
1.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
0.7%
Michael Lantz 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:081% → 4%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+40
1.0%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 40 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
1.1%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
1.2%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+5
1.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Esezi Otomewo) to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
1.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+4
1.1%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+7
1.2%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the Minn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
1.1%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.2%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.8%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTHWESTERN, clock 02:01 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:3499% → 99%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
0.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
0.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:27
Andrew Marty 2 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
+7.9
TD · Q4 13:20
Tyler Johnson 17 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick)
-7.1
TD · Q3 10:03
Rashod Bateman 7 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz Kick)
-7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com