Try the model
PSU

Penn State 26 at Minnesota 31

MINN
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:56 · Blake Gillikin punt for 51 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 1 yd to the Minn 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense+11.8Pregame prior−4.6Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+4.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Time remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:29: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK) — MINN win probability +3.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:18: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 38 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK) — MINN win probability +8.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:05: Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — PSU win probability +20.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:11: Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Walker KICK) — MINN win probability +17.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:49: Journey Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +18.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 6:42MINN 4th & 1 at PSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:12PSU 4th & 8 at MINN 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:43MINN 4th & 7 at PSU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:18PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:36MINN 4th & 7 at PSU 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:55PSU 4th & 4 at MINN 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00PSU 4th & 3 at MINN 3, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%−1.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−8.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:58MINN 4th & 16 at PSU 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:56PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−4.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:38PSU 4th & 5 at MINN 5, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−7.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:17MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:40MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−3.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:06MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:51PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:29MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:18MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:05PSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:11MINN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:49PSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:3562% → 62%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
38.1%
Sean Clifford run for 17 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
38.2%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Antoine Winfield Jr. return for no gain to the Minn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 2:1738% → 40%
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
38.2%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+4
38.5%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
38.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 15 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
38.8%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+66
40.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 66 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:0860% → 61%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
40.1%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
40.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+20
40.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 20 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
38.9%
Journey Brown run for 45 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 6:1939% → 46%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+28
39.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 28 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
40.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+18
40.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 18 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
40.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
41.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
41.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
41.1%
Seth Green run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
42.2%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
42.5%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+21
46.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 21 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1155% → 57%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+39
45.4%
Journey Brown run for 39 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+23
44.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 23 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
44.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
44.1%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-5
44.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Sean Clifford) to the Minn 15Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
44.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
43.1%
Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:2844% → 46%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.0%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
44.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
45.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 5 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
46.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
45.6%
Tanner Morgan run for 7 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
46.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
47.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
46.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
46.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 41 yds, downed at the PnSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7INT
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:5153% → 53%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
47.4%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
47.7%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+13
48.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 13 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
47.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
47.1%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+10
48.3%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
46.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 17 yds to the MINNESOTA 40 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Tai'yon Devers) to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
45.1%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
45.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Journey BrownSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+33
46.9%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Antoine Winfield Jr. return for 33 yds to the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:2950% → 61%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
49.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 22 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
52.2%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+38
61.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 38 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5340% → 38%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
60.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
60.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
61.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 13
-2
62.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:4162% → 68%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
62.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 26 yds Tyler Johnson fumbled, forced by Marquis Wilson, recovered by Minn Tyler Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
62.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 22 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
63.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
64.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 1 yd to the PnSt 8Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
64.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
67.9%
Brock Walker 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11END OF HALF
17 plays · 71 yds · 3:3132% → 31%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
67.9%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+25
68.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 25 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
67.5%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-3
68.0%
Sean Clifford sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+6
70.0%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+9
67.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 9 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
67.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
67.4%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+20
68.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 20 yds to the Minn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
67.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nick BowersSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
68.6%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
68.7%
Jake Pinegar 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 6:0268% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
68.0%
Rodney Smith run for 11 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
69.4%
Tanner Morgan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
69.8%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+21
70.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 21 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
72.9%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-5
73.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
72.9%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+5
72.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 11
OPP 40
-5
72.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
72.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0127% → 24%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
72.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
73.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 10
OWN 9
-7
74.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Esezi Otomewo for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 17
OWN 2
+1
75.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 51 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 1 yd to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
76.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line Shannon Brooks fumbled, forced by Keaton Ellis, recovered by PnSt Shaka Toney , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3729% → 47%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
50
0
70.6%
Journey Brown run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 10
50
+16
71.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 16 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
70.0%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-2
70.2%
KJ Hamler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+14
72.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 14 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
70.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
71.0%
KJ Hamler run for 8 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+2
73.6%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
53.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5363% → 88%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 8 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
65.4%
Smith, Rodney rush for no gain to the MINNESOTA33, PENALTY MINNESOTA holding (Davis, Ben) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+23
63.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 23 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
66.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 13 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
68.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-5
68.7%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Autman-Bell, Chris, PENALTY MINNESOTA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+2
68.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 2 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+36
68.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 36 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
70.5%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2816% → 12%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
84.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 17 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
83.6%
Journey Brown run for 12 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
83.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 19 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
82.0%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+14
82.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 14 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.4%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
83.0%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
85.7%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 5Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
88.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:2091% → 94%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
90.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-3
90.9%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 4Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+15
90.9%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Bateman, Rashod, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Reid, John) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
91.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+11
91.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 11 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
92.9%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 16
OWN 26
0
93.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+4
93.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
94.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 33 yds, downed at the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:276% → 25%
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
93.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Dan Chisena for 20 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-5
93.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Des Holmes for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 15
OPP 48
+16
95.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 16 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
93.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 18 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
93.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 8 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
93.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
74.9%
Journey Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:0687% → 89%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
86.6%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-10
88.6%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Micah Parsons for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+10
87.8%
Rodney Smith run for 10 yds to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 11
OWN 20
-15
88.9%
Jacob Herbers punt for 37 yds , KJ Hamler returns for a loss of 15 yards to the PnSt 28 KJ Hamler fumbled, recovered by PnSt Ellis BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:3810% → 13%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
90.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 9 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
88.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 3 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
86.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 49 yds to the Minn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
79.3%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-15
79.1%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Brown, Journey for 8 yards to the MINNESOTA2, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (George, Daniel) 15 yards to the MINNESOTA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 24
OPP 25
0
82.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 24
OPP 25
0
87.2%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Howden return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22Uncategorized
2 plays · -1 yds · 1:0095% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
95.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:05
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-20.2
TD · Q4 3:49
Journey Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-18.9
TD · Q4 14:11
Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com