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MINN

Minnesota 38 at Purdue 31

PUR
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:01 · Jack Plummer pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 22 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense−28.0Score differential−16.3Garbage-time factor−14.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.5Pregame prior−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:10: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 45 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +9.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +11.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:36: King Doerue run for 8 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +10.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:18: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +15.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:59: Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 13 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +22.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:33PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 9, up 7
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33PUR 4th & 4 at MINN 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49MINN 4th & 13 at PUR 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:55PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:57PUR 4th & 21 at PUR 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:49MINN 4th & 5 at PUR 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−7.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:18PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:37PUR 4th & 5 at PUR 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:34MINN 4th & 20 at MINN 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:01MINN 4th & 19 at PUR 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:01PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:01PUR 4th & 4 at MINN 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:35MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:34MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:49PUR Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:10MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:14MINN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:36PUR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:18MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:01PUR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:59PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2552% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
48.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
48.0%
Morgan, Tanner pass complete to Bateman, Rashod for 27 yards to the PUR31 (Jalen Graham), PENALTY MINN ineligible downfield on pass (Olson, Conner) 5 yards to the MINN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+3
48.0%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+18
48.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 18 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
48.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Jake Paulson for 24 yds to the Prdue 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
48.0%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
48.0%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
48.0%
Seth Green run for 2 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
48.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds to the Prdue 2Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds for a TD PURDUE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0247% → 47%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.2%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
47.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
46.5%
Brooks Cormier punt for 69 yds, downed at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5453% → 53%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
46.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 5 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+3
46.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 10
-1
47.0%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 9Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
47.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0648% → 49%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
47.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to David Bell for 17 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
48.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 7 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+11
48.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 11 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
48.1%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the Minn 4Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
48.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Rondale Moore, broken up by Kiondre ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to David Bell, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
49.1%
J.D. Dellinger 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5952% → 56%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.4%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
44.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 70 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:4044% → 50%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
44.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 11 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
44.7%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Tai'yon Devers for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+3
44.1%
Jackson Anthrop run for 3 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+14
43.8%
Jack Plummer run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
50
+15
45.2%
King Doerue run for 15 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
45.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
44.1%
King Doerue run for 10 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
44.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 18 yds to the Minn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
44.1%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
49.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Zander Horvath for 7 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
47.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 29 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
46.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
46.4%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-6
46.6%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Derrick Barnes and George Karlaftis for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 49Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
48.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 47 yds, downed at the Prdue 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:0748% → 48%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
47.5%
King Doerue run for 2 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+4
47.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 4 yds to the Prdue 8Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+4
46.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 4 yds to the Prdue 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
47.5%
King Doerue run for 8 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+4
47.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 4 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
47.7%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
47.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Brycen Hopkins, broken up by Thomas RushSimilar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
46.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 15 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
48.6%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
46.4%
King Doerue run for no gain to the Prdue 36Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+7
47.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
47.5%
Brooks Cormier punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:4552% → 65%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
47.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 22 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
46.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 7 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+16
44.9%
Rodney Smith run for 16 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
35.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 45 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:1336% → 33%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
36.4%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the Prdue 15Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
36.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 6 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+7
36.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 7 yds to the Prdue 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
37.1%
King Doerue run for 4 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
37.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 6 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-11
37.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Sam Renner for a loss of 11 yards to the Prdue 27Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 21
OWN 27
0
36.4%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jackson Anthrop, broken up by Carter CoughlinSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 21
OWN 27
0
35.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to King DoerueSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
32.6%
Brooks Cormier punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 1:4367% → 84%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
32.8%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Kai Higgins for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 35 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
34.1%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+8
32.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 8 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
31.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rodney Smith for 20 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
30.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
30.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 6 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+14
30.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Prdue 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
30.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the Prdue 3Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
15.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:1222% → 30%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
21.9%
King Doerue run for 13 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
29.6%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted Kamal Martin return for 12 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13MISSED FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+51
16.8%
Michael Lantz 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2421% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
21.1%
King Doerue run for 14 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
22.3%
King Doerue run for 15 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
23.2%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
22.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 1 yard to the MINN44 (Durr, Coney), PENALTY MINN substitution infraction 5 yards to the MINN40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
23.4%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+16
23.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 16 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
23.8%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Amad Anderson, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Thomas, Kiondre) 15 yards to the MINN8, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
34.6%
King Doerue run for 8 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:4769% → 80%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
30.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 42 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
29.2%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
29.1%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
29.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
29.1%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-1
29.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 15Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
20.1%
Michael Lantz 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:3122% → 20%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
21.7%
Jack Plummer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 13Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+5
21.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 5 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-9
20.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 12 yards to the PUR30 (Winfield, A), PENALTY PUR holding (Alex Criddle) 9 yards to the PUR9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+7
20.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 7 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
19.7%
Brooks Cormier punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Prdue 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
4.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:418% → 8%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.0%
Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
8.4%
Jack Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
8.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David Bell, broken up by Benjamin St-JusteSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
7.6%
Brooks Cormier punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:0396% → 96%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
4.1%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-9
4.1%
Tanner Morgan sacked by George Karlaftis for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 21
OWN 15
+1
4.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 20
OWN 16
0
3.7%
Jacob Herbers punt for 46 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the Prdue 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:057% → 6%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
6.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Milton Wright for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
50
-1
6.8%
King Doerue run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 49Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+14
6.8%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 14 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
7.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Amad Anderson Jr.Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
7.0%
King Doerue run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+2
5.8%
Jack Plummer pass intercepted Kamal Martin return for 2 yds to the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:2897% → 98%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
2.7%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
2.6%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
2.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+17
2.2%
Rodney Smith run for 17 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
2.2%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
2.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-10
2.2%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Ben Holt for a loss of 10 yards to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 37
-5
2.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 42Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
2.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 41 yds, downed at the Prdue 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22TD
16 plays · 99 yds · 6:003% → 8%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
3.1%
Jack Plummer run for 2 yds to the Prdue 3Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+8
3.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 8 yds to the Prdue 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
3.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-3
3.1%
King Doerue run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 8Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+18
3.0%
Jack Plummer run for 18 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
3.2%
Alfred Armour run for 2 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
3.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
3.3%
Alfred Armour run for 1 yd to the Prdue 37Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
3.2%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Payne DurhamSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+8
3.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 8 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
3.4%
King Doerue run for 2 yds to the Prdue 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+37
3.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 37 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
4.1%
Jack Plummer run for 7 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
4.1%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to King Doerue, broken up by Carter CoughlinSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+7
4.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David Bell (Brooks, Shannon), PENALTY MINN pass interference (Brooks, Shannon) 7 yards to the MINN2, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.0%
King Doerue run for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:027% → 30%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
6.6%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the Prdue 48Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+5
6.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 5 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
6.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David Bell, broken up by Benjamin St-JusteSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 4
OPP 47
+22
6.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 22 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jackson AnthropSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
7.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 12 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
8.0%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
30.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 13 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24END OF GAME
14 plays · 41 yds · 2:1286% → 95%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
14.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
14.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
12.2%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyler, PENALTY PUR pass interference (Simeon Smiley) 15 yards to the MINN44, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
10.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
8.9%
Smith, Rodney rush for 5 yards to the PUR48 (Anthony Watts), PENALTY PUR offside (Kieren Douglas) 5 yards to the PUR48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
8.2%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
8.3%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
4.6%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 33Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 33
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:59
Jack Plummer pass complete to King Doerue for 13 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
+22
TD · Q3 6:18
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 47 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q2 0:14
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com