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MINN

Minnesota 38 at Fresno State 35

FRES
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:52 · Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 32Pregame prior−13.5Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−0.5Time remaining+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:27: Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 14 yds for a TD, (J. Hokit Run For Two-point Conversion) — FRES win probability +22.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:18: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +23.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:58: Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +33.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:46: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +38.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +36.7 pts (now 57%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:39FRES 4th & 9 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:52FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:07FRES 4th & 11 at MINN 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:10MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:48FRES 4th & 3 at MINN 13, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−10.6
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:18FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:12FRES 4th & 1 at MINN 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−7.9
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−28.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:46MINN 4th & 13 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−0.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:30FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−13.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:47MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:38MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:02FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:27FRES Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:18MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:58FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−1.8
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:46MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:1366% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.1%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
34.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
34.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Jake Paulson for 3 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+16
34.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Jake Paulson for 16 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
34.1%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
34.1%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
34.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
34.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
34.1%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-1
34.1%
Tyler Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
33.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 15 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:0234% → 35%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
34.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 11 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
34.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
34.4%
RIVERS, Ronnie rush for 9 yards to the FS44 (Durr, Coney;Winfield, A), PENALTY FS holding (BULL, Dontae) 5 yards to the FS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+20
34.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
50
+16
34.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FRESNOST 49 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, tripping (15 Yards) to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
35.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
35.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
34.9%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
35.0%
Cesar Silva 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Mohamed IbrahimSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+34
34.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 34 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
33.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 26 Mohamed Ibrahim fumbled, forced by Justin Rice, recovered by FrsSt Wylan FreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
34.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
35.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
35.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 2
OPP 47
-10
35.8%
HOKIT, Josh rush for 11 yards to the MINN36 (Oliver, Braelen), PENALTY FS holding (MOSBY, Arron) 10 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
34.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
34.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3665% → 65%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
35.0%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+6
34.7%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
34.6%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 18Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-3
34.7%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
35.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Demetrius DouglasSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
35.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 48 yds, downed at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:3635% → 39%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
35.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 15 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
36.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
36.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
36.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 14 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
37.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-9
37.1%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Carter Coughlin for a loss of 9 yards to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+7
35.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 7 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
38.8%
Cesar Silva 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:2262% → 72%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
38.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+16
37.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 16 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
36.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
36.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
36.6%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
36.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+13
36.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Arron Mosby) to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
36.5%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
36.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.2%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3629% → 44%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
28.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 20 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
29.7%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Sam Renner for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 14
OWN 41
-8
28.9%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Chris Williamson for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 22
OWN 33
+26
27.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 11 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
30.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 16 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
44.2%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 25 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:4663% → 62%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
37.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 15
OWN 22
-5
38.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Levelle Bailey for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 17Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+10
38.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rodney Smith for 10 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+5
38.3%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
37.6%
Jacob Herbers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
38.1%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
38.5%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Kiondre Thomas return for no gain to the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0667% → 64%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
33.4%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
35.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 13
OPP 49
-11
36.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 11 yards to the Minn 42 Tanner Morgan fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:1238% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
38.4%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
38.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Chris Coleman, broken up by Jordan HowdenSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+10
37.2%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared Rice, broken up by Jordan Howden for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
38.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
40.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
40.8%
Jorge Reyna run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 38 Jorge Reyna fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Jorge ReynaSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+10
38.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Josh Hokit for 10 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
40.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 8 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
42.0%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Derrion Grim for 24 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
43.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 7 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
43.5%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
41.7%
Jorge Reyna run for no gain to the Minn 13Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
45.6%
Cesar Silva 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0058% → 61%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
42.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
42.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
41.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
39.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 9 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
39.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
39.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
39.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38 Tanner Morgan fumbled, forced by Justin Rice, recovered by FrsSt Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:1047% → 74%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
46.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+20
48.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 20 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
49.5%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 17 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
50.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
73.8%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Jared Rice for 14 yds for a TD, (J. Hokit Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
18 plays · 78 yds · 8:0434% → 57%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
66.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
66.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+15
66.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 15 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
65.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
63.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+7
63.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
62.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
63.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell, broken up by Jaron BryantSimilar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+16
65.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 16 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
65.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
64.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+1
64.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
66.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
64.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
64.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.6%
Ibrahim, Mohamed rush for no gain to the FS1 (RICE, Justin), PENALTY FS offside 0 yards to the FS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
55.9%
Jorge Reyna sacked by Austin Winfield for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
50.6%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Juan Rodriguez for 3 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
49.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for no gain to the Minn 38 Demetrius Douglas fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Justin RiceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:1459% → 90%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
59.4%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 19 yds to the Minn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
60.9%
Jorge Reyna run for 3 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+6
60.9%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Zane Pope for 6 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
58.8%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+8
56.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.7%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
15 plays · 59 yds · 5:0319% → 48%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
81.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 8 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
78.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
79.2%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
79.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-10
80.6%
Morgan, Tanner pass complete to Douglas, Demetrius for 12 yards to the FS34 (RUFFIN, Deshawn;FREE, Wylan), PENALTY MINN holding (Faalele, Daniel) 10 yards to the MINN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+18
84.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 18 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
79.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+15
76.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
76.8%
Seth Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+4
77.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
86.0%
Tanner Morgan run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 20 Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Minn Rodney SmithSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+20
52.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1658% → 54%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.3%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Jared Rice, broken up by Kamal MartinSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.5%
Jorge Reyna run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
55.4%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Zane Pope, broken up by Chris WilliamsonSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
53.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds, downed at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
51.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.7%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Chris Coleman for 7 yds to the Minn 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
64.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Minn 18Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+8
62.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Cam Sutton for 8 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the Minn 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.7%
Jorge Reyna pass incomplete to Cam Sutton, broken up by Chris WilliamsonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
62.2%
REYNA, Jorge pass incomplete to COLEMAN, Chris (Thomas, Kiondre), PENALTY MINN roughing passer (Oliver, Braelen) 5 yards to the MINN5, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.3%
Jorge Reyna pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
80.4%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
79.3%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
42.6%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
40.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler Johnson, broken up by Juju HughesSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+4
43.7%
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
27.8%
Michael Lantz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.3%
Jorge Reyna pass intercepted Austin Winfield return for 2 yds to the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-41.3
TD · Q4 0:46
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 20 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)
-38.6
TD · OT 0:00
Tanner Morgan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)
-36.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com