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SDST

South Dakota State 21 at Minnesota 28

MINN
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadSDST aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreSDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:04 · Jacob Herbers punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Janke at the SDkSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+17.2Home team on offense+6.3Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Garbage-time factor+2.0Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:23: J'Bore Gibbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK) — SDST win probability +10.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:04: Mikey Daniel 1 Yd Run (Chase Vinatieri Kick) — SDST win probability +11.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:26: Zach Heins 13 Yd pass from J'Bore Gibbs (Chase Vinatieri Kick) — SDST win probability +23.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SDST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:12: Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the SDkSt 19 for a 1ST down — MINN win probability +11.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:39: Mohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Tyler Johnson Pass to Tanner Morgan for Two-Point Conversion) — MINN win probability +27.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SDST made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 6 at SDST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36SDST 4th & 7 at MINN 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15SDST 4th & 8 at MINN 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MINN 4th & 1 at SDST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:52SDST 4th & 4 at SDST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:09MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:04MINN 4th & 16 at MINN 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:10SDST 4th & 1 at MINN 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−3.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−13.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:57MINN 4th & 2 at SDST 49, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00SDST 4th & 4 at SDST 45, up 1
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:01MINN 4th & 23 at MINN 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−6.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:39SDST 4th & 10 at MINN 32, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4SDST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 9:52MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:23SDST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:49MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:42MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:04SDST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:26SDST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:39MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    80.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
87.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 24 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST down SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
87.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
87.4%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the SDkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
87.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the SDkSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+1
87.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 1 yd to the SDkSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
87.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 20 yds, downed at the SDkSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+25
86.4%
Cade Johnson run for 25 yds to the SDkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
86.3%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Adam Anderson for 8 yds to the SDkSt 49Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
86.2%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 1
50
+4
86.3%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
86.2%
C.J. Wilson run for 3 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
86.3%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Cade Johnson, broken up by Jordan HowdenSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
86.3%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for no gain to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
86.4%
Ben Dinkel punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3INT
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
85.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
85.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
85.6%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Joshua Manchigiah return for no gain to the SDkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
84.2%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 13 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.1%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Adam AndersonSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
84.1%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
84.2%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Adam Anderson, broken up by Austin WinfieldSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
84.6%
Ben Dinkel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
19 plays · 91 yds · 10:0584% → 85%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
84.1%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+8
84.1%
Tanner Morgan run for 8 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+9
84.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
84.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
84.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+12
84.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 12 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
84.6%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
84.8%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 1
50
+1
84.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
83.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
83.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
83.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
82.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
83.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 34Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+31
82.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 31 yds to the SDkSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 2Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
82.7%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 1Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.3%
Seth Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.3%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Blake Kunz for 3 yds to the SDkSt 28Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
84.1%
J'Bore Gibbs run for 3 yds to the SDkSt 31Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
84.2%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Adam Anderson, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
84.6%
Ben Dinkel punt for 57 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 8 yds to the Minn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
84.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+2
84.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 2 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+7
84.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 7 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Jacob Herbers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Janke at the SDkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:4017% → 29%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
83.5%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Cade Johnson for 17 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
82.4%
C.J. Wilson run for 11 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
82.4%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 11 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
81.4%
Mikey Daniel run for 9 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+17
81.4%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Cade Johnson for 17 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.5%
J'Bore Gibbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase Vinatieri KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3478% → 83%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.5%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
78.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
78.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 23 yds to the SDkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
79.6%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 38Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-4
79.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Reece Winkelman for a loss of 4 yards to the SDkSt 42Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+42
83.1%
Rashod Bateman 42 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Michael Lantz PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
81.3%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 11INT TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1819% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.4%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Cade Johnson for 7 yds to the SDkSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
80.1%
C.J. Wilson run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 36 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive holding (Sam Renner) to the SDkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.7%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete, broken up by Sam RennerSimilar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+43
88.4%
Chris Williamson 43 Yd Interception Return (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 12TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:3811% → 24%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
89.1%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 17Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 1
OPP 0
0
87.0%
PENALTY SDSU holding off-setting, PENALTY MINN holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+6
88.8%
Mikey Daniel run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
88.9%
J'Bore Gibbs run for 14 yds to the SDkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
88.6%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Jaxon Janke for 9 yds to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
87.8%
Mikey Daniel run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
88.2%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Pierre Strong Jr. for 39 yds to the MINNESOTA 14 for a 1ST down SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, illegal block (C.J. Wilson) to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.0%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Cade JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
87.2%
C.J. Wilson run for 6 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+17
87.6%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Cade Johnson for 17 yds to the Minn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.9%
Mikey Daniel 1 Yd Run (Chase Vinatieri Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.0%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
82.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
81.3%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Ryan Earith for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
80.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Janke at the SDkSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:3122% → 43%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
78.1%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Cade Johnson for 19 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
76.6%
Mikey Daniel run for 12 yds to the Minn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
77.8%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 7 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
77.8%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Cade JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
78.6%
J'Bore Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+4
80.6%
J'Bore Gibbs run for 4 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
57.4%
Zach Heins 13 Yd pass from J'Bore Gibbs (Chase Vinatieri Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:2967% → 64%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Tyler DeMartraSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
65.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 18 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+5
70.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 49Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
70.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the SDkSt 49Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
64.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 30 yds, downed at the SDkSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:4838% → 41%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
61.6%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Kallan HartSimilar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
62.1%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Pierre Strong Jr.Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+20
63.9%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Pierre Strong Jr. for 20 yds to the SDkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.5%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Cade Johnson, broken up by Jordan HowdenSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
57.2%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 6 yds to the SDkSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
56.0%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
59.1%
Ben Dinkel punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 58%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
60.9%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
63.8%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
62.6%
Tanner Morgan run for 14 yds to the SDkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
65.7%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 12
50
+4
62.7%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the SDkSt 46Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-15
64.2%
Morgan, Tanner pass complete to Douglas, D for 4 yards to the SDSU42 (Tolu Ogunrinde), PENALTY MINN personal foul (Andries, Blaise) 15 yards to the MINN39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 23
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod Bateman, broken up by Ryan EarithSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 23
OWN 39
+51
58.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Janke at the MINNESOTA 20 SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, illegal block (Jadon Janke) to the SDkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:0045% → 47%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
54.6%
C.J. Wilson run for 11 yds to the SDkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
53.8%
J'Bore Gibbs pass complete to Cade Johnson for 13 yds to the SDkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
52.5%
Mikey Daniel run for 1 yd to the SDkSt 35Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-1
52.8%
J'Bore Gibbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDkSt 34 J'Bore Gibbs fumbled, recovered by Minn Winston DeLattiboudereSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:3365% → 93%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
64.7%
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the SDkSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
64.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the SDkSt 14Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+9
64.8%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the SDkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
64.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the SDkSt 3Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.8%
SO DAKOTA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (2 Yards) to the SDkSt 1Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Tyler Johnson Pass to Tanner Morgan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSTDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
87.5%
C.J. Wilson run for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
86.6%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
86.3%
C.J. Wilson run for 7 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+3
84.2%
Mikey Daniel run for 3 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
84.8%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
85.9%
J'Bore Gibbs pass incomplete to Adam Anderson, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+3
87.9%
Pierre Strong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 32
-7
89.0%
J'Bore Gibbs sacked by Esezi Otomewo and Tai'yon Devers for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-2
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-1
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:39
Mohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Tyler Johnson Pass to Tanner Morgan for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.9
TD · Q3 3:26
Zach Heins 13 Yd pass from J'Bore Gibbs (Chase Vinatieri Kick)
-23.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:12
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the SDkSt 19 for a 1ST down
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com