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Notre Dame 14 at Michigan 45

MICH
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:15 · Jay Bramblett punt for 28 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for no gain to the Mich 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Pregame prior+4.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:51: Zach Charbonnet 7 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +5.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:52: Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +11.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Cole Kmet 7 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +13.8 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:37: Donovan Peoples-Jones 8 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +10.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:29: Nico Collins 16 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 11:03ND 4th & 15 at MICH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:25MICH 4th & 2 at ND 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.4%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15ND 4th & 9 at ND 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57ND 4th & 8 at ND 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:58ND 4th & 6 at ND 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:20MICH 4th & 16 at MICH 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−4.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33ND 4th & 4 at MICH 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07MICH 4th & 2 at ND 43, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−1.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:22ND 4th & 5 at ND 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:35MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:38ND 4th & 12 at ND 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:09MICH 4th & 14 at MICH 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−3.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:06ND 4th & 8 at ND 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:17MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 24, up 17
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:22ND 4th & 16 at ND 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:47MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:18ND 4th & 5 at ND 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:13ND 4th & 20 at ND 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 13:51MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:52MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:27ND Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:37MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:29MICH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:46MICH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:23MICH Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:45ND Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 3:3144% → 44%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
55.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 5 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
55.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+18
55.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 18 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
55.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+2
55.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
55.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+15
55.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
55.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NDame Ian BookSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-5
55.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 19
OPP 49
+4
55.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 4 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
55.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
56.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, downed at the Mich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2356% → 56%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
55.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
55.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
55.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
55.6%
TEAM punt for 20 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the Mich 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Mich Daxton HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:0056% → 58%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
56.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+15
55.9%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Collins, Nico, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NOTREDAME49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
56.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
56.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+35
56.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 35 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
57.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
57.3%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 4 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Mich Shea PattersonSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
57.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the NDame 2Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+21
57.6%
Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0043% → 42%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
57.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 23Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
57.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
58.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 5 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
57.9%
Braden Lenzy run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
58.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
58.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 28 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for no gain to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:1658% → 65%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
58.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
58.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 1
50
+3
58.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
59.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 25 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
59.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+7
59.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
59.8%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the NDame 7Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
64.8%
Zach Charbonnet 7 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4836% → 35%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
64.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
64.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+16
65.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 16 yds to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:5865% → 79%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
65.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 20 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
65.4%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
65.6%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+13
65.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 13 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
66.7%
Shea Patterson run for 22 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.5%
Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4024% → 23%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
75.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
75.7%
Jahmir Smith run for no gain to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
76.8%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
76.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 61 yds, downed at the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2478% → 78%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
78.3%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 12Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
78.7%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 19
-13
78.8%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jamir Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the Mich 6 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 16
OWN 6
0
78.3%
Will Hart punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3924% → 22%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
76.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
75.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-1
76.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
77.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1782% → 83%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
82.2%
Tru Wilson run for 9 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
83.1%
Tru Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 9
50
+4
84.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
84.0%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
83.4%
Will Hart punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3819% → 18%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
81.4%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
82.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
82.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
82.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 29 yds, downed at the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1484% → 83%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
84.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-3
84.6%
Tru Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-7
83.3%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jack Lamb for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 47 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Mich Shea Patterson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1883% → 82%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
83.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
82.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
81.7%
Will Hart punt for 40 yds, downed at the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2316% → 15%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
83.7%
Ian Book sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 30Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
84.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
85.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 58 yds, downed at the Mich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2385% → 86%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
84.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-7
85.6%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 14
OWN 8
0
85.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 14
OWN 8
0
86.3%
Will Hart punt for 51 yds, downed at the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5615% → 14%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
85.3%
Jafar Armstrong run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
85.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+7
86.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 7 yds to the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4488% → 89%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
88.3%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+7
89.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+1
89.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
89.1%
Will Hart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:2813% → 26%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.7%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
87.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
88.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
87.8%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+9
88.1%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
87.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 24 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
87.6%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.8%
Cole Kmet 7 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4079% → 93%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+49
79.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 49 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
82.0%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Collins, Nico, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NOTREDAME11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
82.0%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+2
82.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+10
81.6%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Peoples-Jones, Donovan, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Crawford, Shaun) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
82.6%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 8Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
93.3%
Donovan Peoples-Jones 8 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:088% → 7%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 20Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
92.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 4 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
92.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
92.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2994% → 94%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
93.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
93.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
94.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
93.7%
Will Hart punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:227% → 6%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
93.2%
Jahmir Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+6
93.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Jahmir Smith for 6 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Javon McKinleySimilar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, downed at the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:4498% → 99%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
98.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
50
+34
98.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 34 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.3%
Nico Collins 16 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:442% → 1%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.5%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 12 yards to the NDame 13Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+1
98.6%
Phil Jurkovec run for 1 yd to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-7
98.6%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the NDame 7Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 28
OWN 7
+8
98.7%
Phil Jurkovec run for 8 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+1
98.7%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 1 yd to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:2199% → 100%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 20 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Tru Wilson 27 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 7 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 9 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Avery Davis run for no gain to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Avery Davis run for 3 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 45 Phil Jurkovec fumbled, recovered by Mich Daxton Hill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 28TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 7 yds to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Giles Jackson for 8 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 4 yds to the NDame 26Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Mike Sainristil 26 Yd pass from Dylan McCaffrey (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 29TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:210% → 0%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Javon McKinley for 28 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+33
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Cole Kmet for 18 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Taylor Upshaw) to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Javon McKinley 14 Yd pass from Phil Jurkovec (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Christian Turner run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Christian Turner run for 13 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
99.9%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Ben VanSumeren run for 2 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
100.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:27
Cole Kmet 7 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-13.8
TD · Q2 9:52
Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+11.5
TD · Q3 2:37
Donovan Peoples-Jones 8 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Jake Moody Kick)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com