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MICH

Michigan 21 at Penn State 28

PSU
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:51 · Jake Moody 58 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+10.6Pregame prior+7.9Score differential+4.1Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:22: Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:55: Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +11.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:05: Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +14.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:14: Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 53 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:48: Shea Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +10.9 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:42MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:45MICH 4th & 3 at PSU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:47MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:53PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:53PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51MICH 4th & 6 at PSU 41, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12PSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:49PSU 4th & 11 at MICH 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:22MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:22PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:42MICH 4th & 3 at midfield, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:15PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:48MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−6.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:54PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:19MICH 4th & 4 at PSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−8.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:01MICH 4th & 3 at PSU 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−11.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−16.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:59PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:22PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:55MICH Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:05MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:14PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:48MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0835% → 35%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.4%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
65.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 17 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
65.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 2 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+7
65.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 7 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3565% → 65%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
65.3%
Journey Brown run for 11 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
65.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
65.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 4 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
65.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
65.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3035% → 35%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
65.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
65.1%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
65.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+3
65.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 11
OWN 14
-3
65.4%
Will Hart punt for 49 yds , KJ Hamler returns for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:5365% → 69%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
65.2%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
65.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
65.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 3 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
65.6%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+37
65.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 37 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
69.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 17 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:0432% → 32%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
68.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+19
68.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 19 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
67.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+13
68.3%
Shea Patterson run for 13 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
67.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 8 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
67.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
67.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
67.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
67.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
68.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:3470% → 77%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+44
69.7%
Ricky Slade run for 44 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
70.6%
KJ Hamler run for 2 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
70.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+10
70.5%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
70.9%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
71.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the Mich 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (1 Yards) to the Mich 2Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.6%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4126% → 24%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.5%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
74.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.8%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.1%
Will Hart punt for 49 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3977% → 77%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
77.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 4 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
77.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
77.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+3
76.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 3 yds to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4524% → 23%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
76.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
76.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 5 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
76.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+18
77.3%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Tariq Castro-Fields return for 3 yds to the Mich 43 PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5880% → 90%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
79.7%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 11
50
+18
79.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 18 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
80.4%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
80.0%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+25
89.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1413% → 22%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+30
87.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 30 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
87.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+10
87.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 10 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
87.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
87.5%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
88.6%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+7
89.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
88.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+15
89.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
78.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3782% → 82%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.2%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
82.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 35 yds, downed at the Mich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:5719% → 19%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
81.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 19 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
79.7%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
80.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
80.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+58
81.5%
Jake Moody 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2884% → 83%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
84.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 7 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
83.9%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 1
50
+43
83.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
83.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5184% → 83%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
84.0%
Noah Cain run for 13 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
84.1%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-3
84.1%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 11
OPP 43
+2
83.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 35 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 2 yds to the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5816% → 15%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
83.6%
Shea Patterson run for 12 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.9%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
84.1%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+15
84.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.2%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-7
83.7%
Shea Patterson sacked by Garrett Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+7
85.5%
Will Hart punt for 51 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 7 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3887% → 86%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
86.5%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
86.7%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
86.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 8
OWN 24
-6
85.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 60 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2215% → 15%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
85.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
85.4%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+17
85.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 17 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
85.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 6 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
84.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 3
50
0
85.3%
Will Hart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1189% → 89%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
88.5%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+2
89.0%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
89.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
88.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0413% → 29%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
86.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 14 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
86.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
86.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 11 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.6%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
86.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 9 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+10
86.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 10 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
85.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
71.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3682% → 94%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.4%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
83.5%
Sean Clifford sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
82.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
84.0%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
84.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 4 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+8
84.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 8 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
93.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 53 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:079% → 21%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 13 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
90.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 15 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
90.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
90.1%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+35
90.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 35 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
90.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
90.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
89.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.0%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3686% → 87%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
86.6%
Sean Clifford sacked by Cameron McGrone for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+6
87.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for 6 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+14
86.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 39 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 14 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:4519% → 15%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
80.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 14 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
79.4%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
79.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+6
81.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 6 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+6
83.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 6 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
79.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+1
79.5%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+10
82.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Erick All for 10 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
80.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.9%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.7%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 1 yds · 1:5594% → 96%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
93.8%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+2
94.8%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+4
94.8%
KJ Hamler run for 4 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 14
OWN 10
-3
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 17
OWN 7
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:05
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 2:55
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 8:48
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com