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MICH

Michigan 14 at Wisconsin 35

WIS
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:46 · Anthony Lotti punt for 41 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 3 yds to the Mich 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense+34.7Score differential+26.2Garbage-time factor+11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.6Blowout margin+10.6Pregame prior+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:35: Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +1.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:43: Jonathan Taylor 72 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +5.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:40: Jack Coan 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +11.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:57: Jack Coan 25 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:55: Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Mich 31 — MICH win probability +6.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:00WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:49WIS 4th & 3 at MICH 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:53MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:09MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:14WIS 4th & 3 at MICH 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:40WIS 4th & 1 at MICH 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−8.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:00WIS 4th & 15 at WIS 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:11MICH 4th & 22 at MICH 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:15MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 46, down 28
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:46WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 35, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:49MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 27, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:56WIS 4th & 20 at MICH 31, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:56MICH 4th & 5 at WIS 5, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:32MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:13MICH 4th & 16 at WIS 42, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:28WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 25, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:20MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 40, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:35WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:43WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:40WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:57WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:13WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:08MICH Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:56MICH Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2058% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.8%
Jack Coan run for no gain to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
57.8%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
57.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
58.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Ross) to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
58.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 18 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
58.5%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
58.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 5 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+14
58.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 14 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
58.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Mich 1Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.8%
Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 71 yds · 0:4040% → 40%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+68
60.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 68 yds to the Wisc 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
59.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
59.7%
Ben Mason run for 3 yds to the Wisc 4 Ben Mason fumbled, forced by Reggie Pearson, recovered by Wisc Eric BurrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:5561% → 63%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
61.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 10 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
61.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+10
61.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 10 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
62.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+10
62.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
63.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
63.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+7
62.7%
Garrett Groshek run for 7 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
63.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4938% → 37%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
62.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
62.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+14
63.1%
Will Hart punt for 61 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 14 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
68.8%
Jonathan Taylor 72 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:2332% → 31%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.6%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
67.9%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-15
67.8%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Peoples-Jones, Donovan, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Wildgoose, Rachad) 6 yards to the MICHIGAN36, NO PLAY, PENALTY MICHIGAN unsportsmanlike conduct (Peoples-Jones, Donovan) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
68.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 11 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
68.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
69.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Christian Turner for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
69.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+9
69.5%
Will Hart punt for 53 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 8:2071% → 88%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
70.9%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
70.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
71.2%
Mason Stokke run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+20
72.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 20 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.9%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
74.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
74.6%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+26
74.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 26 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
76.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 3 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+11
76.9%
A.J. Taylor run for 11 yds to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.5%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Mich 1Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.9%
Jack Coan run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.9%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
Jack Coan 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5215% → 14%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.0%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Collins, Nico, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Williams, Caesar) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
85.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-3
85.6%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Eric Burrell return for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:3190% → 92%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 2 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
90.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 8 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.9%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
91.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-5
91.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Quintez Cephus) to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
91.9%
Jack Coan run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 15
OWN 47
+5
91.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 43 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 5 yds to the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:3911% → 10%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
89.5%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 12Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 13
OWN 12
-8
89.7%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 4Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 21
OWN 4
-1
89.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 3Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 22
OWN 3
+5
89.7%
Will Hart punt for 45 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 5 yds to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
2 plays · 43 yds · 0:0893% → 97%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
92.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 18 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
97.3%
Jack Coan 25 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:408% → 2%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.8%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
96.1%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 9 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
97.8%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
97.7%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
97.9%
Will Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
16 plays · 84 yds · 7:5698% → 100%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
98.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
98.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 8 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
98.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.6%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
98.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
50
+4
98.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
98.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
98.8%
Groshek, Garrett rush for 10 yards to the MICHIGAN27, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Seltzner, Josh) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+23
99.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 23 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.3%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
99.3%
John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
99.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
John Chenal 2 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:591% → 0%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+22
99.5%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Eric Burrell) to the Mich 49 for a 1ST down. Eric Burrell ejected for targetingSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+13
99.6%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 13 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+18
99.5%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Sean McKeon for 18 yds to the Wisc 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
99.5%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Reggie Pearson) to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST down. Reggie Pearson ejected for targetingSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Sean McKeon 6 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Shea Patterson Pass to Tarik Black for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
99.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+4
99.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+9
99.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
99.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
99.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-5
99.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+3
99.7%
Anthony Lotti punt for 41 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for no gain to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+11
99.8%
Will Hart punt for 58 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 11 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+42
99.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for 42 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
99.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
99.8%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Jason Erdmann) to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Brady SchipperSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-11
99.9%
Jack Coan sacked by Khaleke Hudson for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 31Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+48
99.8%
Collin Larsh 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:470% → 1%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 5
OWN 36
-15
99.9%
Patterson, Shea pass complete to Collins, Nico for 36 yards to the WISCONSIN28, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Collins, Nico) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+32
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 32 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 11 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+32
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 32 yds to the Wisc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Eubanks, Nick, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Wilder, Collin) 2 yards to the WISCONSIN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
99.9%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 5Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Donovan Peoples-Jones 5 Yd pass from Shea Patterson , (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FUMBLE
10 plays · 37 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q4 4:32
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+20
99.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 20 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-9
99.2%
Jon Runyan run for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 42 Jon Runyan fumbled, recovered by Mich Ben BredesonSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 16
OPP 42
+23
99.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 23 yds to the Wisc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-7
99.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 16 Shea Patterson fumbled, forced by Zack Baun, recovered by Wisc Chris Orr , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.7%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
99.8%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
99.8%
Brady Schipper run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 53 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 12 yds to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:011% → 0%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Joe Milton run for no gain to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.5%
Joe Milton run for 6 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Hassan HaskinsSimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+9
99.6%
Joe Milton pass intercepted John Torchio return for 9 yds to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:40
Jack Coan 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)
+11.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:55
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Mich 31
-6
TD · Q1 2:43
Jonathan Taylor 72 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com