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ARMY

Army 21 at Michigan 24

MICH
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:21 · Will Hart punt for 61 yds , Akyah Miranda returns for 12 yds to the Army 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 93Pregame prior+26.0Home team on offense−7.3Score differential−2.3Time remaining−0.7Garbage-time factor−3.1Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:24: Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +16.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. 6 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick) — ARMY win probability +17.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Zach Charbonnet 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +36.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. FG · OT2 0:00: Jake Moody 43 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +16.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · OT2 0:00: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mich 23 — ARMY win probability +38.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:54ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:40MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 42, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:02ARMY 4th & 18 at ARMY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:24ARMY 4th & 2 at MICH 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%−0.6
    80% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00MICH 4th & 14 at ARMY 37, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:21MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:49ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:58MICH 4th & 2 at ARMY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−3.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−20.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:28ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 41, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:32MICH 4th & 2 at ARMY 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−9.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:19ARMY 4th & 1 at MICH 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.9%−9.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00ARMY 4th & 8 at MICH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−11.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−13.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:01ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:24MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:51ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:24MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:016% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 25Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.7%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
93.5%
Kell Walker run for 4 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
93.3%
Zach Potter punt for 42 yds, downed at the Mich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:3793% → 93%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
93.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
93.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Giles Jackson for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+12
93.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the MICHIGAN 49 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Defensive Holding (Elijah Riley) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
93.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ben Bredeson) to the Mich 46Similar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+11
92.9%
Christian Turner run for 11 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+15
93.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 15 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-12
92.9%
Shea Patterson sacked by Arik Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the Army 40 Shea Patterson fumbled, forced by Arik Smith, recovered by Army Kwabena Bonsu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:468% → 11%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
92.4%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
92.3%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
92.2%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Army 49Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
92.1%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
91.8%
Kell Walker run for 31 yds to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
91.5%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
91.3%
Sandon McCoy run for 3 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+8
91.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 8 yds to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.9%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Mich 1Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.4%
Sandon McCoy 1 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:2190% → 91%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
89.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
89.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 8 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
89.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
89.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
89.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for no gain to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-5
88.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Devin Gil) to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+25
87.8%
Michael Barrett pass complete to Daxton Hill for 25 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+24
88.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 24 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
88.6%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 0
OPP 6
+4
88.2%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Collins, Nico, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Riley, Elijah) 4 yards to the ARMY2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q1 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.6%
Zach Charbonnet 2 Yd Run (Quinn Nordin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
89.3%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 21 Kell Walker fumbled, recovered by Mich Josh MetellusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-7
90.5%
Shea Patterson sacked by Elijah Riley for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 28 Shea Patterson fumbled, forced by Elijah Riley, recovered by Army Elijah Riley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:5811% → 12%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
89.2%
Connor Slomka run for 6 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
88.8%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
88.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-13
88.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Army 40 ARMY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Connor Slomka) to the Army 25Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+5
88.6%
Sandon McCoy run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
88.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for no gain to the Army 30Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
88.5%
Zach Potter punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:1789% → 88%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
88.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+7
88.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
88.3%
Charbonnet, Zach rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGAN19, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Hayes, Ryan) 8 yards to the MICHIGAN9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+11
88.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 11 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+14
87.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 14 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
87.9%
Ben VanSumeren run for 6 yds to the Mich 40 Ben VanSumeren fumbled, forced by Cole Christiansen, recovered by Army Cam JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:3614% → 23%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
85.6%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
85.3%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-1
84.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 35 Kelvin Hopkins Jr. fumbled, recovered by Army Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+10
84.8%
Hopkins Jr., Kelvin pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Hill, Lavert) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARMY.Similar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.6%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
83.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+2
83.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+3
84.4%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
82.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
82.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
82.4%
Sandon McCoy run for 4 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. 1 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10DOWNS
19 plays · 40 yds · 2:3276% → 71%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
76.3%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
76.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 3 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
75.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+5
74.2%
Charbonnet, Zach rush for 3 yards to the MICHIGAN35, PENALTY ARMY substitution infraction 5 yards to the MICHIGAN37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
74.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Cesar Ruiz) to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+13
73.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 13 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
75.6%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
74.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
50
-5
75.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ben Bredeson) to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
73.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+22
73.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 22 yds to the Army 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
76.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 6 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
76.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 37
-10
74.7%
Shea Patterson sacked by Elijah Riley for a loss of 10 yards to the Army 37 MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shea Patterson) to the Army 37Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 37
+55
71.2%
Quinn Nordin 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3471% → 68%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
71.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
70.4%
Dylan McCaffrey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-1
68.5%
Shea Patterson sacked by JB Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+12
67.6%
Will Hart punt for 61 yds , Akyah Miranda returns for 12 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13INT
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:3233% → 43%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
66.9%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+34
66.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 34 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
62.9%
Connor Slomka run for 8 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
62.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
61.4%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
60.5%
Sandon McCoy run for 1 yd to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
60.4%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
58.6%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mich 1Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
56.9%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (Connor Slomka) to the Mich 6Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
57.2%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 1 yd to the Mich 5Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+20
56.8%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass intercepted Lavert Hill return for 20 yds to the Mich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:1163% → 79%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
62.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
63.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
61.9%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
61.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
59.7%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Collins, Nico, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Riley, Elijah) 15 yards to the ARMY49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Army 49Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
61.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 1 yd to the Army 48Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+18
60.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 18 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
63.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
63.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+25
60.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 25 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.3%
Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2830% → 30%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
70.5%
Hopkins Jr., Kelvin rush for 1 yard to the ARMY26, PENALTY ARMY holding (Reeder, Peyton) 10 yards to the ARMY15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
70.6%
Kell Walker run for 8 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
69.9%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass complete to Artice Hobbs IV for 9 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
68.3%
Kell Walker run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
70.2%
Zach Potter punt for 31 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 32 Ronnie Bell fumbled, forced by Ryan Velez, recovered by Mich Josh MetellusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4273% → 71%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
73.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
75.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
74.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
74.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
74.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 7
50
+11
73.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 11 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
74.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
76.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+5
75.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 5 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+1
73.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Army 19Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 2
OPP 19
-4
71.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:2237% → 40%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
63.4%
Connor Slomka run for 5 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
61.8%
Connor Slomka run for 6 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
61.0%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Army 35Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
60.3%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
59.2%
Connor Slomka run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
59.8%
Zach Potter punt for 43 yds, downed at the Mich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:4266% → 66%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
65.8%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, Personal Foul (Javhari Bourdeau) to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
67.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
68.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
67.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
68.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+4
68.9%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+1
68.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Army 43Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+1
65.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 25 yds · 2:2649% → 52%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
51.4%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. pass incomplete to Artice Hobbs IVSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
52.4%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 2
50
+1
46.9%
Connor Slomka run for 1 yd to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
49.3%
Artice Hobbs IV run for 3 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
45.2%
Connor Slomka run for 6 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
44.1%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.9%
Connor Slomka run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
39.2%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
41.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
47.7%
Cole Talley 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Connor Slomka run for 2 yds to the Mich 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+4
40.5%
Connor Slomka run for 4 yds to the Mich 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
43.0%
Slomka, Connor rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGAN17, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside (Hudson, Khaleke) 5 yards to the MICHIGAN14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARMY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
40.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 8 yds to the Mich 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
40.5%
Connor Slomka run for no gain to the Mich 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
22.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. 6 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
28.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Army 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+9
25.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
28.1%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Black, Tarik, PENALTY ARMY pass interference 9 yards to the ARMY3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.7%
Zach Charbonnet 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
64.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
61.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
78.6%
Jake Moody 43 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0060% → 56%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
40.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mich 23Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-3
40.5%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 26Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-10
43.7%
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. sacked by Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 36 Kelvin Hopkins Jr. fumbled, recovered by Mich Kwity Paye , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+56.3
KEY PLAY · OT2 0:00
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mich 23
-38.1
TD · OT 0:00
Zach Charbonnet 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)
+36.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com