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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 21 at Michigan 40

MICH
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:54 · Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the MTnSt 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior+15.1Home team on offense+28.9Score differential+17.7Garbage-time factor+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:08: Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 28 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:12: Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:05: Jake Moody 27 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:53: Dylan McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MICH win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:06: Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 59 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 7:37MICH 4th & 6 at MTSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:01MICH 4th & 21 at MTSU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:02MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:29MICH 4th & 8 at MTSU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05MICH 4th & 5 at MTSU 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:04MTSU 4th & 7 at MICH 44, down 13
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:07MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:30MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:11MICH 4th & 12 at MICH 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:40MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:40MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 48, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:54MICH 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:48MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 1, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:44MTSU 4th & 1 at MICH 44, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:00MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 49, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:52MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:21MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:54MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:08MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:12MTSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:53MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:37MICH Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:06MTSU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
98.5%
Shea Patterson run for 15 yds to the Mich 42 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by MTnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:322% → 2%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
98.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 17 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
98.5%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
98.4%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 3 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
98.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 18 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:5598% → 98%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
98.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 14 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
98.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+15
98.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 15 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
98.0%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
97.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
97.9%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
97.8%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
97.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
97.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
97.6%
Jake Moody 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
97.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 10 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
97.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
97.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-8
97.2%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Jordan Glasgow for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:0297% → 96%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
97.2%
Christian Turner run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
97.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 10 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
97.1%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-5
97.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+1
96.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dylan McCaffrey for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 11
OPP 32
-10
96.7%
Shea Patterson sacked by Khalil Brooks and Robert Payne for a loss of 10 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 21
OPP 42
0
96.3%
Will Hart punt for 37 yds, downed at the MTnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:594% → 4%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
96.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 12
OWN 3
0
96.3%
Terelle West run for no gain to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 12
OWN 3
0
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 12
OWN 3
0
96.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 36 yds , Lavert Hill returns for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:1996% → 97%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
96.3%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+36
96.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 36 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:133% → 4%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Dalton Frantz for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
96.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+42
96.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 42 yds , Lavert Hill returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0696% → 97%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
96.3%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+22
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 22 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 12 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
97.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 28 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:493% → 4%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
96.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
96.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 12 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Ambry Thomas return for 2 yds to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1697% → 96%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
96.8%
Christian Turner run for 8 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
96.7%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 1
50
+3
96.5%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
96.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Christian Turner for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
96.1%
Will Hart punt for 42 yds, downed at the MTnSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:054% → 4%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+18
96.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 18 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
96.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Terelle WestSimilar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Terelle West for 7 yds Terelle West fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0596% → 98%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
97.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 28 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:423% → 3%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+6
97.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ben Mason) to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
97.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
97.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 1 yd to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 36 yds , Lavert Hill returns for no gain to the Mich 33 Lavert Hill fumbled, recovered by MTnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:383% → 5%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
97.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 6 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+11
97.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 11 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
96.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the Mich 15Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+7
96.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 7 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+7
97.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jocquez Bruce for 7 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.9%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Tyrese Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 2Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 1:5596% → 96%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
95.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 5 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
95.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 9 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
95.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
95.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+10
95.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Desmond Anderson) to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
95.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
95.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+9
95.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 9 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
95.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
95.5%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
95.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
96.4%
Jake Moody 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.9%
Jayy McDonald run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:434% → 4%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.1%
Zack Dobson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
95.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Zack Dobson for 10 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
95.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 13 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
95.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 6 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
95.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-4
95.4%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Jordan Glasgow for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
95.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:4396% → 96%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.4%
Christian Turner run for 8 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+12
96.3%
Shea Patterson run for 12 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
96.5%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
96.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
96.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+6
96.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-9
96.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jordan Branch for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 18
OWN 45
+7
95.8%
Will Hart punt for 37 yds , Ty Lee returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:304% → 4%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Zack Dobson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
95.4%
Zack Dobson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
95.3%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 6 yds to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0996% → 96%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 13 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
96.3%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 36 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
96.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
95.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Will Hart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
95.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-13
94.5%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 13 yards to the MTnSt 14 Asher O'Hara fumbled, recovered by MTnStSimilar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 19
OWN 14
0
95.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 19
OWN 14
+8
95.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 8 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:0797% → 99%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
96.5%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
96.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+8
96.4%
Shea Patterson run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+9
96.4%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
96.9%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+15
96.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Gregory Grate Jr.) to the MTnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.7%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:082% → 2%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Zack DobsonSimilar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Terelle West for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+19
97.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
97.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Ruben GarnettSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
97.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 10
OPP 47
-5
97.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
97.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:2199% → 99%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
98.8%
Ben VanSumeren run for 3 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+12
98.8%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
98.9%
Ben VanSumeren run for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
98.9%
Dylan McCaffrey pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 5 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+41
98.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 41 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.0%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+10
99.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
99.0%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.0%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 7 Dylan McCaffrey fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
99.0%
Dylan McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
98.2%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
98.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
98.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+27
98.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 27 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27TD
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4399% → 100%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
99.0%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
99.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Justin Brown) to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.0%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.1%
Ben VanSumeren run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Ben VanSumeren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 1 yd to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 10 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.9%
Jayy McDonald run for 9 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Jayy McDonald run for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Joeseph SewellSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Dalton Frantz for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 5
50
-10
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Joe Milton run for 9 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Will Hart punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:390% → 2%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
99.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 20 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+59
98.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 59 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.4%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
99.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:53
Dylan McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+1.9
TD · Q2 2:12
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-1.8
TD · Q2 7:08
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 28 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com