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MD

Maryland 16 at Michigan State 19

MSU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:22 · Matt Coghlin 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Pregame prior+16.0Home team on offense−2.0Garbage-time factor−1.5Score differential−1.4Blowout margin−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:47: Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +2.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 12:47: Joseph Petrino 33 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +2.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 11:10: Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 63 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino PAT BLOCKED) — MD win probability +10.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:30: Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:14: Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +20.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:23MSU 4th & 10 at MD 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01MSU 4th & 1 at MD 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    89.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11MD 4th & 20 at MD 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:45MSU 4th & 9 at MD 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:39MD 4th & 3 at MSU 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:47MD 4th & 11 at MSU 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:41MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 25, up 3
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:10MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:17MD 4th & 14 at MSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:22MSU 4th & 6 at MD 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:30MSU 4th & 5 at MD 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−3.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−16.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:30MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:14MSU 4th & 8 at MD 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−2.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−27.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:05MD 4th & 5 at MD 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:47MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:08MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:10MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:3793% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
92.5%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+21
92.5%
Elijah Collins run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
92.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 5 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+23
92.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 23 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
92.5%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-5
92.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to Nailor, Jalen for 22 yards to the UMD1 (Lewis, Marcus), PENALTY MSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UMD28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+4
92.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 4 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+2
92.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
91.4%
Matt Coghlin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.4%
Javon Leake run for no gain to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
91.4%
Javon Leake run for no gain to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Josh Jackson pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for no gain to the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
91.3%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
91.3%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+6
91.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
91.4%
Jalen Nailor run for 3 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+17
91.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
91.4%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
91.4%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+6
91.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-3
91.2%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
89.9%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
90.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for 4 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+7
90.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 7 yds Dontay Demus Jr. fumbled, forced by Antjuan Simmons, recovered by MchSt Antjuan SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.1%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted, touchback. Marcus Lewis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
89.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+5
89.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
89.7%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-4
89.8%
Javon Leake run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 15
OWN 15
-5
90.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
90.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
50
+7
89.3%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Deonte Banks return for 7 yds to the Mary 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:3412% → 14%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
88.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 15 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
86.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:0287% → 86%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
86.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
86.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 10 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
87.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 13 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
87.3%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+27
87.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 27 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
87.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-1
87.6%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
87.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
86.2%
Matt Coghlin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
85.2%
Javon Leake run for 4 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+15
85.2%
Jackson, Josh pass incomplete to Okonkwo, Chigoziem, PENALTY MSU roughing passer 15 yards to the UMD38, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
84.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
84.4%
Josh Jackson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
84.4%
Josh Jackson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
84.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 11 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
84.1%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
84.1%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+7
84.5%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 7 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
85.0%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony McFarland Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 8:3186% → 89%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
85.8%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
85.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 16 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
86.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+6
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.8%
Brandon Wright run for no gain to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+24
86.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 24 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
87.1%
Brandon Wright run for 5 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
87.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+10
86.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 10 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.1%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12DOWNS
17 plays · 32 yds · 2:5614% → 13%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
86.3%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+10
85.9%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 10 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
85.6%
Josh Jackson run for 9 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+10
84.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
84.8%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 11 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
82.3%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
82.4%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+15
83.5%
Jackson, Josh sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MSU41 (Willekes, Kenny), PENALTY MSU personal foul 15 yards to the MSU16, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
82.1%
Josh Jackson sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 17
OPP 23
-8
84.9%
Josh Jackson sacked by Raequan Williams and Kenny Willekes for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 25
OPP 31
-13
86.3%
Josh Jackson sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 13 yards to the MchSt 44 MARYLAND Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 38
OPP 44
0
87.0%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:1315% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
84.1%
Javon Leake run for 12 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
83.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 40 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
82.6%
Javon Leake run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
82.9%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
83.8%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Dontay Demus Jr.Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
81.4%
Joseph Petrino 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
82.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
82.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+6
81.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 6 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+15
81.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 53 yds , Tyler DeSue returns for 15 yds to the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
71.0%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 63 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.3%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
72.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by Brandon GaddySimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
71.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian Barnett, broken up by Shaq SmithSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
70.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, downed at the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.3%
Javon Leake run for 3 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
69.7%
Javon Leake run for 4 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
69.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 6 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.0%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler DeSueSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
69.2%
Josh Jackson run for 13 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
68.5%
Tyler DeSue run for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 17
OPP 48
0
69.8%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony McFarland Jr., broken up by Jacob SladeSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 17
OPP 48
+3
70.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
72.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 41 yds, downed at the MchSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2168% → 65%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
67.5%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+16
67.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 16 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+32
68.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
50
+6
71.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
72.2%
Jalen Nailor run for 3 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+10
71.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 10 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.3%
Cody White pass incomplete to Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
73.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
71.8%
Cody White pass incomplete to Julian Barnett MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
65.0%
Matt Coghlin 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 46 yds · 0:0040% → 43%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+43
60.1%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 43 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
55.4%
Javon Leake run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
55.0%
Javon Leake run for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-8
57.4%
Josh Jackson sacked by Noah Harvey for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 27 Josh Jackson fumbled, recovered by MchSt Mike Panasiuk , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 6:1562% → 67%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
61.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-1
64.4%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+11
61.7%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
64.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 15 yds Matt Seybert fumbled, forced by Keandre Jones,Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+3
65.5%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
64.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+13
65.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 13 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
67.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 12 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
67.6%
Brandon Wright run for no gain to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
67.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for no gain to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+5
53.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
66.9%
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.1%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
60.7%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 20Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+9
62.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
63.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 60 yds, downed at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:5962% → 89%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
61.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 12 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
62.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
62.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
66.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 19 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
68.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 13 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
69.5%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
69.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 6 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+4
67.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
69.5%
Brandon Wright run for no gain to the Mary 17Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
67.0%
Brandon Wright run for 2 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
68.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
88.5%
Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.4%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
78.4%
Josh Jackson run for 5 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
76.6%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Dontay Demus Jr.Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
79.7%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 13
50
-2
89.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:14
Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG GOOD
+20.2
FG · Q4 9:30
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOOD
+13.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com