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MSU

Michigan State 10 at Michigan 44

MICH
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:25 · Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior+15.3Home team on offense+15.2Score differential+5.6Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:48: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Max Rosenthal for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:29: Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:18: Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +6.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:40: Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 18 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +5.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:46: Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 22 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:09MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48MSU 4th & 7 at MICH 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:57MSU 4th & 7 at MICH 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:21MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15MICH 4th & 9 at MSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:25MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:43MSU 4th & 8 at MICH 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:13MICH 4th & 20 at MSU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:12MICH 4th & 4 at MSU 15, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:21MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 36, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:05MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 41, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:17MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 4, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:48MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:29MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:18MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:40MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:46MICH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:33MICH Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:4682% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
82.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 17
OWN 9
+8
81.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-5
81.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Tarik Black) to the Mich 12Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+16
81.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 16 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
81.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
81.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
81.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
81.3%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for no gain to the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:1219% → 20%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
81.3%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
81.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt Dominique LongSimilar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
81.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Nelson, Laress, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Hill, Daxton) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
80.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 2
50
+5
80.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Carlo Kemp) to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
80.4%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+4
80.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-4
79.8%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Michael Danna for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
79.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 28 yds, downed at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:1080% → 80%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
80.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+15
79.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 15 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
79.8%
Giles Jackson run for 21 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
80.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
79.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik Black, broken up by Josh ButlerSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
79.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:4221% → 27%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. Hayes, broken up by Lavert HillSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
78.9%
Brandon Wright run for 1 yd to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+13
78.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 13 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
78.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Dominique LongSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
77.9%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
77.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 6 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+7
77.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Max Rosenthal for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:4974% → 79%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
73.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
73.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 15 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
74.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the MICHIGAN 44 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Shakur Brown) to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
75.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 8 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+18
74.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 18 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 4:1823% → 25%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.6%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
76.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Aidan Hutchinson) to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.7%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+20
75.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 20 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
75.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cody White) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-15
75.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Luke Campbell) to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
75.7%
Brandon Wright run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
75.4%
Brandon Wright run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+10
75.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 10 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
74.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
73.9%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
73.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
74.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
15 plays · 98 yds · 5:3276% → 83%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
75.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
75.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+8
74.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 8 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
75.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
75.0%
Shea Patterson run for 15 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
75.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 18 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
76.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+14
76.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 14 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
77.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 6 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
76.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
76.8%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Collins, Nico, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Brown, Shakur) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
76.7%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4919% → 18%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
81.2%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
81.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SeybertSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:0082% → 84%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
82.4%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
81.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+42
81.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 42 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
82.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
82.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
82.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik Black, broken up by Shakur BrownSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
83.6%
Quinn Nordin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:5617% → 17%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.8%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Barnett, Julian, PENALTY MICHIGAN roughing passer (Paye, Kwity) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
82.2%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+4
82.8%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Ambry Thomas return for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:1085% → 91%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
84.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 19 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+20
85.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 20 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
91.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 18 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 5:529% → 11%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.2%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
91.2%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
91.1%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
91.1%
Julian Barnett run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
50
+20
90.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 20 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
90.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+8
90.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 8 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+5
90.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Mich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
89.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 1 yd to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+1
89.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
91.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trenton GillisonSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+35
89.0%
Matt Coghlin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 4:2791% → 95%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
91.3%
Giles Jackson run for 11 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.0%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
92.0%
Tru Wilson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+12
92.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 27 yds to the MICHIGAN 23 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tarik Black) to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-13
92.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 13 yards to the MICHIGAN 49 MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shea Patterson) to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 23
OWN 49
+3
92.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tru Wilson for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+27
92.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Sean McKeon for 27 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
92.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
93.0%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-12
94.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by Antjuan Simmons for a loss of 12 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+49
95.2%
Quinn Nordin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:575% → 5%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 7 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
94.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
94.8%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
94.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (AJ Arcuri) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
95.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Khaleke Hudson blocked by Khaleke HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 22 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:211% → 1%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
98.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 22 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.6%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Lavert Hill return for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:4899% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.3%
Tru Wilson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
99.4%
Shea Patterson run for 8 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
99.4%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-11
99.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 32 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by MichSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 21
OPP 32
+2
99.5%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+15
99.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 15 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
99.9%
Quinn Nordin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 7 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Dominique LongSimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+50
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 50 yds to the MchSt 21 Donovan Peoples-Jones fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Sideline Interference (15 Yards) to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
99.9%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jordan Glasgow and Carlo Kemp for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 7 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 8 yds to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 5 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
99.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacub Panasiuk) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Tru Wilson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-1
100.0%
Tru Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+39
100.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
100.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-11
100.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Carlo Kemp for a loss of 11 yards to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 20
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 20
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:18
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q3 12:40
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 18 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q1 1:48
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Max Rosenthal for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com