Try the model
PSU

Penn State 28 at Michigan State 7

MSU
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:40 · Theo Day pass complete to Julian Barnett for 4 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense−43.8Score differential−26.0Garbage-time factor−15.3Pregame prior−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:20: Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 27 yds for a TD, (S. Clifford Run For Two-point Conversion) — PSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:07: Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 00:07 — MSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Jordan Stout kickoff for 63 yds , Andre Welch return for 12 yds to the MchSt 14 — PSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:10: Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:34: Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:53PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56MSU 4th & 11 at PSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:41MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:08PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:30MSU 4th & 4 at PSU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:22MSU 4th & 11 at PSU 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:30PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−3.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:20MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:16PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:13PSU 4th & 17 at MSU 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:00PSU 4th & 7 at MSU 35, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:46MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 9, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:10PSU 4th & 17 at MSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:27MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:34PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:40MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:59MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:31PSU 4th & 4 at MSU 43, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:54PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:30PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:20PSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:10PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:34MSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4260% → 60%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
39.6%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
39.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+2
40.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 2 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+58
40.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 58 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5040% → 41%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
40.3%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
40.5%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
40.4%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
40.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds, downed at the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:4159% → 62%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
40.7%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
40.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 15 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
40.6%
Noah Cain run for 8 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
40.6%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+5
40.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
40.7%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
40.8%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+10
41.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 10 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4939% → 39%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
39.2%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+8
39.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
39.9%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
40.2%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
40.2%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
40.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
39.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
38.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 26 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 3:5061% → 67%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
38.6%
Journey Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
38.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+10
39.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Shakur Brown) to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
38.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Justin Shorter for 9 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
37.8%
Journey Brown run for 7 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
37.6%
Journey Brown run for 10 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
37.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
36.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 9 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
36.7%
Journey Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
36.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+14
36.8%
Sean Clifford run for 14 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
36.3%
KJ Hamler run for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
32.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 19 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1935% → 34%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
34.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+36
33.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the MICHIGANST 31 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2167% → 67%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.9%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-4
32.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+7
33.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 7 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+2
32.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 7:2834% → 29%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
33.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 12 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.4%
Brandon Wright run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
33.5%
Brandon Wright run for 1 yd to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
32.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
33.4%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
33.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
32.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
33.7%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
32.9%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
32.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+9
31.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
32.4%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-11
32.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr. MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 18
OPP 35
0
31.5%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 18
OPP 35
+7
29.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 7 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+8
29.3%
Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Shaka Toney Keaton Ellis return for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4872% → 72%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
27.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
27.6%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+4
27.1%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
28.2%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:5473% → 87%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
26.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
25.2%
Devyn Ford run for 16 yds to the MchSt 28 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+11
24.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 11 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
13.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 27 yds for a TD, (S. Clifford Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
14 plays · 30 yds · 0:5916% → 23%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
16.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
16.8%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SeybertSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
16.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+5
16.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 5 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+5
17.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Trenton GillisonSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
17.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 7 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
16.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
23.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jayson Oweh for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 46 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3015% → 14%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
15.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+9
15.0%
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
14.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Max Rosenthal for 3 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
14.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
13.9%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
13.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+6
13.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 36 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4990% → 91%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
9.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+7
9.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+3
9.0%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
9.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for no gain to the MchSt 6 Brandon Sowards fumbled, recovered by PnStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 6 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:066% → 13%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.9%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
5.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
5.9%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SeybertSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
5.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 10 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+49
6.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 49 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
6.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Anthony Williams Jr.Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1493% → 95%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
6.6%
Ricky Slade run for 9 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
6.6%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
4.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
4.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
4.6%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted David Dowell return for no gain to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
7.0%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Marquis Wilson return for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:0296% → 97%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
4.2%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
4.1%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
4.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.5%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
3.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Mike Panasiuk for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 17
OPP 42
0
3.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
3.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:515% → 4%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
5.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 19 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
5.0%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-1
4.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+14
4.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 14 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
4.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
4.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
4.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
4.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+8
4.0%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jayson Oweh for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by PnSt Ellis Brooks , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 40 PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:3097% → 98%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
2.6%
Journey Brown run for no gain to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
2.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+38
2.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 38 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
2.3%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
2.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
2.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
1.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 34 yds, downed at the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:043% → 3%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
2.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+5
2.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 5 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 9
0
2.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
2.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds, downed at the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
1.3%
Ricky Slade run for 27 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
1.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-6
1.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Antjuan Simmons for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
1.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 35 yds, downed at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
2.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
2.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Brandon SowardsSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
2.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+5
2.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the MchSt 13Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+9
2.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 44 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 9 yds to the PnSt 22 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4199% → 99%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
1.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
1.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+6
1.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 48 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:212% → 1%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
2.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
1.9%
Theo Day pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
2.1%
Theo Day pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
2.0%
Theo Day run for no gain to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+4
1.5%
Theo Day pass complete to Julian Barnett for 4 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
1.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
1.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
1.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 5 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5499% → 100%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
0.6%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
0.6%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+1
0.5%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+44
1.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Jaquan Brisker return for 29 yds to the MchSt 49 PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
0.3%
Journey Brown run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
0.3%
Journey Brown run for 5 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
0.3%
Journey Brown run for 11 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
0.3%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 27 yds for a TD, (S. Clifford Run For Two-point Conversion)
-11.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Jordan Stout kickoff for 63 yds , Andre Welch return for 12 yds to the MchSt 14
-10.1
TD · Q3 7:34
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com