Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 0 at Wisconsin 38

WIS
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Camp Randall Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.1WIS 99.1%Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD,(Collin Larsh KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 24 · Q4 13:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:38 · Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+31.7Score differential+21.0Pregame prior+4.5Garbage-time factor+11.3Blowout margin−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 19 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +5.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:30: Collin Larsh 29 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +6.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:47: Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 46 — WIS win probability +3.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:24: John Chenal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 17 — WIS win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:38: Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 14:55WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:37MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:16WIS 4th & 2 at MSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:48MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:04WIS 4th & 5 at MSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30WIS 4th & 8 at MSU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:38WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:53MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−1.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 38, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:48MSU 4th & 19 at WIS 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:52MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:38MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 25, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:25WIS 4th & 5 at MSU 38, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:00MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 16, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:04WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 37, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:55MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 47, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 5:00WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:38WIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:52WIS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:52WIS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
69.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 9 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-10
69.8%
Taylor, J. rush for 8 yards to the MSU41 (Bachie, Joe), PENALTY WIS holding (Erdmann, Jason) 10 yards to the WIS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-8
69.8%
Jack Coan run for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 33 Jack Coan fumbled, recovered by Wisc Jack CoanSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 19
OWN 33
+3
69.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 3 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+52
69.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
69.5%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 9Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
69.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+10
69.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+5
69.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 61 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:1669% → 72%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
69.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 11 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
69.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
69.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
69.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 9 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
69.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 13 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
69.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
69.8%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
69.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+27
69.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 27 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
71.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1772% → 78%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 8 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
72.1%
Taylor, J. rush for 5 yards to the WIS38 (Simmons, A.), PENALTY MSU offside (Panasiuk, Mike) 5 yards to the WIS38, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
72.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
72.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 5 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
72.1%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
72.4%
Nakia Watson run for 19 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
72.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 11 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
72.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
78.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 19 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
76.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
75.9%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
76.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 5 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
76.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
76.1%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
76.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Eric BurrellSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
76.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, downed at the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 7:3479% → 86%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
79.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
79.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 45Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
79.1%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Ferguson, Jake, PENALTY MSU offside (Willekes, Kenny) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN WIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
50
+11
79.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
79.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
79.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
79.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete, broken up by Antjuan SimmonsSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+10
78.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 10 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
79.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to John Chenal for 1 yd to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+10
79.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 10 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
79.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
79.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jonathan TaylorSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
79.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for no gain to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
85.7%
Collin Larsh 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.2%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
83.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
84.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
84.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 29 , Danny Davis III returns for 2 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
86.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 3 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
86.6%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+3
86.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Anthony Lotti punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:3614% → 14%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
85.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 7 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
85.3%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-3
85.4%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
85.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
89.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-7
89.2%
Jack Coan sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 39 Jack Coan fumbled, recovered by Wisc Cole Van Lanen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
16 plays · 39 yds · 5:1214% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
85.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-4
86.0%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 33 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt Brian LewerkeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+5
86.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+20
86.7%
Tyriq Thompson run for 20 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
84.8%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
84.5%
Cody White run for no gain to the Wisc 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+11
85.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-8
85.5%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 18
OPP 35
-4
86.8%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Isaiahh Loudermilk for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 39Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 22
OPP 39
-5
88.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 44Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 27
OPP 44
+8
88.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 8 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
88.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 28 yds, downed at the Wisc 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 8:4692% → 99%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
91.8%
John Chenal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 17Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+5
92.2%
Aron Cruickshank run for 5 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
92.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+18
92.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 18 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
92.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+9
92.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
92.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 9 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-1
92.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
92.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
92.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+12
92.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 12 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
92.8%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-2
95.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+21
95.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 21 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:462% → 0%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete, broken up by Isaiahh LoudermilkSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+34
99.8%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Zack Baun return for 34 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Matt Dotson, broken up by Chris OrrSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-8
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 29 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by MchSt Rocky LombardiSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 18
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 18
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds , Danny Davis III returns for 2 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
99.8%
Kendric Pryor run for 66 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:140% → 0%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to C.J. Hayes, broken up by Mike MaskalunasSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 54 yds, downed at the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
John Chenal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
99.9%
Aron Cruickshank run for 23 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
99.9%
John Chenal run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Adam KrumholzSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-5
99.9%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+8
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Wisc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 5 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
100.0%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY MSU pass interference (White, Cody) 15 yards to the MSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 25
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 25
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 25
OWN 28
+19
100.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cody White for 19 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+18
100.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 18 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 15 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Rachad Wildgoose return for 11 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 4:30
Collin Larsh 29 yd FG GOOD
+6.3
TD · Q2 14:54
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 19 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q4 13:38
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com