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MSU

Michigan State 10 at Ohio State 34

OSU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:03 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+7.0Home team on offense+30.2Score differential+21.3Garbage-time factor+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:12: Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 60 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:36: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:09: Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 21 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:24: J.K. Dobbins run for 67 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:41: Justin Fields run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30OSU 4th & 26 at OSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34OSU 4th & 3 at MSU 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:04OSU 4th & 10 at MSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:49MSU 4th & 7 at OSU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:09MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:36MSU 4th & 6 at OSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:46MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:05OSU 4th & 5 at MSU 26, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:43MSU 4th & 5 at OSU 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:04MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:32OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:03MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:39OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:12MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:12OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:36MSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:09OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:24OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:41OSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:2588% → 88%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.1%
Justin Fields run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Luke FarrellSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-18
87.9%
Justin Fields sacked by Joe Bachie for a loss of 18 yards to the OhSt 9Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
87.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2412% → 13%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
87.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds Cody White fumbled, forced by Damon Arnette, recovered by OhSt Malik Harrison , return for 22 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0688% → 87%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
87.7%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
87.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Wyatt Davis) to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+4
87.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+6
87.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
87.0%
Blake Haubeil 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3213% → 13%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
86.8%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
86.7%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 22 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by OhSt Davon HamiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4687% → 87%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
87.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
86.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for no gain to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-1
86.5%
Justin Fields sacked by Joe Bachie for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
86.5%
Blake Haubeil 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1114% → 14%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
86.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+13
86.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
50
0
85.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
50
+3
85.4%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
85.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds, downed at the OhSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:5385% → 84%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
85.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for no gain to the OhSt 5Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
85.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 4 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+15
84.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 15 yds to the OhSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
85.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jonah Jackson) to the OhSt 14Similar
Q1 3:09
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
85.0%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+15
84.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Kevin Jarvis) to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
84.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 27Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
84.6%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Binjimen VictorSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+3
84.2%
Justin Fields run for 3 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3615% → 16%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
84.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+1
83.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
84.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-5
84.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Carrick) to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+11
84.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
83.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:4884% → 87%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
83.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 1 yd to the OhSt 15Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+2
83.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+10
82.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 10 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
83.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 13 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
86.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 60 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2414% → 19%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+23
86.0%
Elijah Collins run for 23 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
85.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 19 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
80.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2182% → 88%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
82.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 2 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+35
81.8%
Justin Fields run for 35 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
83.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
84.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
84.0%
Justin Fields run for 13 yds to the MchSt 11 OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 7
OPP 21
+21
87.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 21 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:3313% → 15%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
86.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marcus Hooker) to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
86.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Chase Young and Zach Harrison for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+4
86.9%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+16
87.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 16 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-5
85.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Elijah Collins) to the OhSt 43Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+18
86.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 18 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
85.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 2 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
85.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
85.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
84.6%
Matt Coghlin 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0486% → 91%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 1 yd to the OhSt 26Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
85.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 7 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
90.5%
J.K. Dobbins run for 67 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2910% → 10%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.1%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
89.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
90.4%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 1:3091% → 94%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
91.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 5 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
91.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 4 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+9
91.2%
J.K. Dobbins run for 9 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.5%
Justin Fields run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
50
0
91.6%
Justin Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
50
+19
91.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 19 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
91.8%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Austin MackSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
91.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 7 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 24
-5
91.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Binjimen Victor) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+3
91.4%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
93.5%
Blake Haubeil 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 4:128% → 8%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.9%
Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
91.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 18 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
91.2%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+19
91.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 19 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
91.0%
Cody White run for 11 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
91.0%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 16Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+7
91.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 7 yds to the OhSt 9Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
91.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
92.1%
Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:3594% → 95%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 18Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+23
94.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 23 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
94.8%
Justin Fields run for 18 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
94.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+9
95.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+34
95.2%
Justin Fields pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for 34 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:517% → 6%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-2
93.5%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 2 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
94.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2895% → 95%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
94.8%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the OhSt 8Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+6
94.8%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
95.1%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the OhSt 14Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
95.1%
Master Teague III run for 1 yd to the OhSt 15Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
95.0%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to K.J. HillSimilar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
94.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:405% → 4%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
94.7%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-2
94.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jashon Cornell for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
94.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
94.8%
Cody White run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 13
50
-1
95.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-9
95.6%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Baron Browning for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 23
OWN 40
0
96.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:0496% → 99%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+6
96.3%
J.K. Dobbins run for 6 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
96.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 5 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+12
96.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
96.9%
J.K. Dobbins run for 29 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
97.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
97.0%
J.K. Dobbins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+9
97.1%
Justin Fields run for 9 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
97.1%
J.K. Dobbins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Justin Fields run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:351% → 1%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 18 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.0%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Shaun Wade) to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to White, Cody for 18 yards to the OHIOST29, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal formation 5 yards to the MICHIGANST48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 15
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by K.J. Hill at the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.1%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the OhSt 17Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+9
99.2%
Master Teague III run for 9 yds to the OhSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
99.2%
Master Teague III run for 13 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.3%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-4
99.3%
Justin Fields sacked by Mike Panasiuk for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 34 Justin Fields fumbled, recovered by MchSt Drew Beesley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+41
99.3%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Jordan Fuller return for 26 yds to the OhSt 8 OHIO ST Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
99.4%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 27Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.4%
Master Teague III run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:211% → 0%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 9 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
99.5%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 9 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+5
99.5%
Williams Jr., Anthony rush for 2 yards to the OHIOST47, PENALTY OHIOST substitution infraction 5 yards to the OHIOST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-7
99.5%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Shaun Wade for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
99.7%
Master Teague III run for 41 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
99.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Branden Bowen) to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+7
99.7%
Master Teague III run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
99.7%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:24
J.K. Dobbins run for 67 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 10:36
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 8:09
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 21 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com