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MSU

Michigan State 31 at Northwestern 10

NU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:39 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 29 yds, downed at the Nwest 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense−53.7Pregame prior−2.7Score differential−40.2Garbage-time factor−21.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:13: Charlie Kuhbander 39 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +1.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:41: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:54: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 15 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down — MSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:41: Drake Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +2.0 pts (now 2%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 9:51NU 4th & 10 at NU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:59NU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:56MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13NU 4th & 13 at MSU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:58NU 4th & 11 at NU 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:06MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:17NU 4th & 4 at NU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:52MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:14NU 4th & 2 at NU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:37MSU 4th & 1 at NU 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.5%−2.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:20MSU 4th & 5 at NU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:29NU 4th & 5 at NU 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:18NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:03MSU 4th & 8 at NU 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−4.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:26NU 4th & 1 at NU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:01NU 4th & 13 at MSU 25, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:39MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 35, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:13NU 4th & 1 at MSU 14, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:42MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:24MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:41MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:34MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:41NU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5876% → 76%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
23.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
24.1%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+29
24.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 29 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
24.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
24.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 9 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
24.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
24.6%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+4
24.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.1%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1825% → 25%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
24.6%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Joe Bachie for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+5
24.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+4
24.5%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+6
24.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 44 yds , Cody White returns for 6 yds to the MchSt 27 Cody White fumbled, recovered by NwestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1726% → 26%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
25.6%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
25.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
25.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+2
25.8%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+10
25.7%
Hunter Johnson run for 10 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
26.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 5:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
25.8%
Hunter Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3475% → 74%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
25.5%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+4
25.4%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
25.5%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Alex Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 12
OWN 13
-5
25.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+6
25.8%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+6
26.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
26.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nwest 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:0926% → 29%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
26.1%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
26.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+18
25.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 18 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
27.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Drake Anderson for 2 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
27.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+7
27.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 7 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.9%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-2
28.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+15
26.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
28.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
27.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 13
OPP 21
0
26.9%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+39
28.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0872% → 70%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
28.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 25
OWN 27
-5
29.4%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 30
OWN 22
+5
29.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 25
OWN 27
+18
30.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 18 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
30.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5430% → 29%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
29.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
29.9%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-1
30.1%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+3
29.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 3 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
29.1%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2771% → 69%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.2%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-8
29.6%
Darrell Stewart Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+11
31.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 11 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+11
30.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 53 yds , Riley Lees returns for 11 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2030% → 31%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
30.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 21 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
31.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
31.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
30.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 6 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
30.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 26 yds , Cody White returns for no gain to the MchSt 31 Cody White fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1870% → 68%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
30.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
30.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
31.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
31.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11INT
14 plays · 31 yds · 3:4831% → 33%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
31.0%
Hunter Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
31.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
30.7%
Hunter Johnson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.7%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
31.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 6 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
32.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 7 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
34.1%
Hunter Johnson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
34.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+9
33.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
35.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 20
OWN 48
0
34.0%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 20
OWN 48
0
33.6%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 20
OWN 48
0
32.7%
Hunter Johnson pass intercepted Josiah Scott return for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 62 yds · 1:1170% → 81%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
30.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 18 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
28.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
29.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+9
28.7%
Connor Heyward run for 9 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
28.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-6
28.4%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+21
29.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 21 yds to the Nwest 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
27.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
27.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
18.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+19
20.9%
TEAM run for 19 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2622% → 21%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
21.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
21.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
21.0%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 38 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 12 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:3180% → 80%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
20.2%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
20.1%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
19.8%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
19.9%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
20.1%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
19.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
18.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
18.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
18.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
19.7%
Matt Coghlin 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4720% → 18%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
19.6%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
19.5%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
19.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+14
18.2%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 40 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 14 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:4082% → 93%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
17.9%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
17.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
17.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
17.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
16.9%
Elijah Collins run for 13 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
16.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 9 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
16.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
16.2%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the Nwest 1 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Nwest 10Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
16.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
6.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5510% → 10%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
10.1%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
9.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
9.5%
Daniel Kubiuk punt for 23 yds, downed at the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5195% → 97%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
5.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 15 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.3%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
5.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+27
4.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 27 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.6%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
4.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for no gain to the Nwest 8Similar
Q3 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
2.6%
Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:594% → 3%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
3.6%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 8 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
3.1%
Aidan Smith sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:4698% → 100%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
2.0%
Cody White run for 13 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
1.9%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22INT
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:141% → 0%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.5%
Aidan Smith run for 3 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
0.5%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
0.5%
Aidan Smith run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+15
0.4%
Drake Anderson run for 15 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
0.4%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Riley Lees for 6 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+14
0.3%
Drake Anderson run for 14 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
0.3%
Aidan Smith run for a loss of 12 yards to the MchSt 30 Aidan Smith fumbled, recovered by Nwest Aidan Smith Aidan Smith run for 4 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+5
0.3%
Jace James run for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
0.3%
Aidan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 13
OPP 25
+19
0.2%
Aidan Smith pass intercepted Joe Bachie return for 19 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
0.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 29 yds, downed at the Nwest 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:390% → 2%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
0.2%
Drake Anderson run for 11 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+20
0.1%
Aidan Smith pass complete to Bennett Skowronek for 20 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
0.2%
Drake Anderson run for 17 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
0.2%
Aidan Smith run for 4 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
0.2%
Aidan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+7
0.1%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
0.2%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.2%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
0.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
0.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 6Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
0.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.8%
Aidan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
0.8%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
0.8%
Aidan Smith run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.8%
Aidan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
0.8%
Aidan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
0.7%
Drake Anderson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-1
0.7%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:41
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 0:24
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-9
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:54
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 15 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com