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ASU

Arizona State 10 at Michigan State 7

MSU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:23 · Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+1.0Home team on offense+12.6Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:37: Elijah Collins run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +18.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 0:50: Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +76.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:50: Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down — MSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:50: TEAM pass incomplete — MSU win probability +12.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. MISSED FG · Q4 0:00: Matt Coghlin 47 yd FG MISSED — ASU win probability +12.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:10ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ASU 4th & 4 at MSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59MSU 4th & 1 at ASU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:18MSU 4th & 12 at ASU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:40ASU 4th & 19 at MSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36MSU 4th & 9 at ASU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−5.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:23MSU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%−3.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:43ASU 4th & 8 at MSU 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:33MSU 4th & 6 at ASU 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.9%−1.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:30ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:51MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−8.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:23ASU 4th & 13 at MSU 28, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.9 ptsWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%−3.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 8:37MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:50ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
86.8%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 2 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
86.8%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
86.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 46
-5
86.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
86.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
85.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
85.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
85.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
85.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
85.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+8
85.9%
Michael Turk punt for 51 yds , Cody White returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 40 ARIZONA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.7%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
84.9%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
84.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
84.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+11
84.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
50
+4
85.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
85.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Stewart, Darrell, PENALTY ASU pass interference 3 yards to the ASU43, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
85.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 39 Brian Lewerke fumbled, forced by Aashari Crosswell, recovered by ArzSt Tyler WhileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
83.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 9 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
83.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Michael Turk punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
83.3%
Elijah Collins run for 16 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
83.5%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
83.7%
Collins, Elijah rush for 2 yards to the MSU41 (Crosswell, Aashari), PENALTY ASU offside defense 5 yards to the MSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+8
83.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
84.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, QB hurry by Thomas,Khaylan, PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
83.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+4
83.4%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 16
OWN 46
0
83.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
83.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:1718% → 19%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
81.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 5 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-1
81.8%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Kenny Willekes and Tyriq Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
81.7%
Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Aiyuk,Brandon (Butler, Josh), PENALTY MSU roughing passer 15 yards to the ASU34, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
81.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 12 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
80.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-2
80.2%
Kyle Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
80.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
81.1%
Michael Turk punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:4181% → 80%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+48
81.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 48 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
82.3%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
82.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
81.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
82.5%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+2
82.0%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
81.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt Dotson MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
79.5%
Matt Coghlin 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 5:3822% → 26%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
78.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 2 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
78.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Pierce for 7 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
76.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
76.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 15 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
76.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 15 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
75.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 16 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
75.6%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-10
75.6%
A.J. Carter run for 5 yds to the MchSt 10 ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+2
77.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+41
73.7%
Christian Zendejas 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 3:0174% → 71%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
73.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
74.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 3 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
75.2%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
75.5%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+4
72.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 5
50
+36
72.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 36 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
74.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
74.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
73.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 4
OPP 8
-5
72.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
71.0%
Matt Coghlin 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
68.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
68.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Antjuan Simmons and Raequan Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.4%
Michael Turk punt for 26 yds, downed at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
71.0%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
69.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
70.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
71.8%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
69.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+13
68.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 13 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
70.3%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
64.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+15
63.5%
Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Benjamin,Eno, PENALTY MSU roughing passer 15 yards to the MSU45, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
62.9%
Eno Benjamin run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
62.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
63.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Eno Benjamin, broken up by Noah HarveySimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
65.8%
Michael Turk punt for 40 yds, downed at the MchSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:1066% → 63%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
65.6%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+2
65.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+20
64.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 20 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
61.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 20 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.4%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
65.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
65.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
66.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
66.3%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-2
65.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
63.2%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5044% → 44%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
55.9%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
56.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+11
57.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
55.1%
Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Darby,Frank, PENALTY ASU holding 9 yards to the ASU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+1
55.4%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 18
OWN 11
0
56.0%
Eno Benjamin run for no gain to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+9
54.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+3
56.1%
Michael Turk punt for 43 yds , Cody White returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 23 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3154% → 81%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
54.0%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+29
54.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 29 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
59.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
56.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+6
56.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+11
57.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 11 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
61.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
61.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+5
58.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 5 yds to the ArzSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
61.6%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
80.5%
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
70.2%
Daniels,Jayden sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ASU27 (Willekes, Kenny), fumble by Daniels,Jayden recovered by MSU Panasiuk, Jacub at ASU27, PENALTY MSU personal foul 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
50
-2
65.5%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Raequan Williams and Joe Bachie for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-4
69.1%
Eno Benjamin run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+5
72.1%
Eno Benjamin run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
72.4%
Michael Turk punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0080% → 76%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
79.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
79.4%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-6
78.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to White, Cody for 6 yards to the MSU19 (Williams,Kobe), PENALTY MSU pass interference 6 yards to the MSU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 14
OWN 7
0
77.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 14
OWN 7
-3
75.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds , Brandon Aiyuk returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 4 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:4425% → 93%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
73.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Eno Benjamin for 5 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
73.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 40 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brandon Aiyuk for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon AiyukSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
73.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 8
OPP 23
-5
82.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+15
85.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
75.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
75.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank Darby, broken up by Xavier HendersonSimilar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+7
83.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.6%
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:5023% → 22%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Aashari CrosswellSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
23.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
21.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY ASU pass interference 15 yards to the ASU49, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
27.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 25 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
34.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+47
22.0%
Matt Coghlin 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:50
Eno Benjamin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian Zendejas KICK)
-76.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-22
TD · Q4 8:37
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com