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WMU

Western Michigan 17 at Michigan State 51

MSU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:12 · Griffin Alstott pass complete to Ryan Selig for 5 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+0.8Home team on offense+35.2Score differential+29.8Blowout margin+19.1Garbage-time factor+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:14: La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:59: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:34: Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 14 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +5.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:32: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:30: Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:57WMU 4th & 7 at MSU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:14WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:34WMU 4th & 2 at MSU 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:12WMU 4th & 8 at MSU 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:32WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:55WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 28, down 24
    Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:30MSU 4th & 5 at WMU 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:24WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 28, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:36MSU 4th & 2 at WMU 2, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:37WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 43, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:41WMU 4th & 10 at MSU 14, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:41MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:12WMU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:26MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:14MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:59MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:34WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:32MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:37MSU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:02MSU Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:24WMU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:3486% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+33
85.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 33 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
85.5%
Elijah Collins run for 29 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
85.5%
Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
85.5%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY WMU pass interference 4 yards to the WMU2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2415% → 15%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
85.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+13
85.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
85.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 14 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
85.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 3 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
85.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon Bussell, broken up by Antjuan SimmonsSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
85.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
85.0%
Thiago Kapps 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:4385% → 87%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
85.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 22 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
85.4%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
85.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
85.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 7 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
85.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
85.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+27
85.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 20 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, roughing passer (7 Yards) to the WMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.4%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Hayes, C.J., PENALTY WMU pass interference 5 yards to the WMU2, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY, QB hurry by Zaire Barnes.Similar
Q1 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
86.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
86.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
86.1%
Jon Wassink run for no gain to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+6
86.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 6 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 2
OWN 44
-5
86.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
86.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1787% → 91%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.0%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
87.0%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+22
86.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 22 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
87.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 10 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
90.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:1810% → 15%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
90.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-3
90.3%
Jon Wassink sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+12
90.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 12 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
90.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 3 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
90.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
90.6%
Davon Tucker rush for loss of 10 yards to the WMU45 (Bachie, Joe), PENALTY MSU offside defense 5 yards to the MSU40, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
90.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Corey Crooms for 18 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
90.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Brett Borske for 9 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-2
90.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
90.6%
Jon Wassink run for 1 yd to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+14
85.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 14 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
87.2%
Connor Heyward run for 14 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
87.7%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
87.5%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Najee Clayton return for no gain to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:0214% → 14%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
85.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon Bussell, broken up by Josiah ScottSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
85.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+21
85.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 21 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
84.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy Moore (Butler, Josh), PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the MSU12, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
84.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
84.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Jaylen Hall, broken up by Josh ButlerSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
85.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
86.0%
Thiago Kapps 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4087% → 95%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.1%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
87.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
87.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 21 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
87.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 14 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
87.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
87.8%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
87.5%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the WMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+17
87.9%
Darrell Stewart Jr. pass complete to Brian Lewerke for 17 yds to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
92.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
93.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
92.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni Ricci, broken up by Joe BachieSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
93.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni Ricci, broken up by David DowellSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+41
93.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds, downed at the MICHIGANST 11 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
95.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White, broken up by D'Wayne EskridgeSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
95.6%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17 Connor Heyward fumbled, forced by Antonio Balabani, recovered by WMich Will McCabeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:277% → 7%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
93.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+9
93.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 9 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
92.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.1%
Jon Wassink pass intercepted, touchback. Xavier Henderson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 0:4996% → 97%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
96.1%
Elijah Collins run for 24 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
96.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 7 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+5
96.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
96.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
96.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 14 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+38
96.5%
Matt Coghlin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
95.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to LeVante BellamySimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
95.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 21Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
95.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 7 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+10
95.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 50 yds , Cody White returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15FG
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:5596% → 99%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+58
96.2%
Elijah Collins run for 58 yds to the WMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
96.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 5Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
96.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
99.2%
Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
99.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
99.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
99.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:0699% → 100%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 17 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.4%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
99.4%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+14
99.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 14 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 7Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 5 yds to the WMich 2Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
99.6%
Matt Coghlin 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.6%
Jon Wassink sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 19Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+27
99.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 27 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keith Mixon Jr.Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
99.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Jon Wassink pass intercepted Tyriq Thompson return for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:25100% → 100%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+16
99.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 16 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 16 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+9
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 12 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:560% → 0%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 6 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-8
99.9%
Jon Wassink sacked by Chase Kline for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 8 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+43
99.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 43 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keith Mixon Jr., broken up by Tre PersonSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
99.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni Ricci, broken up by Dominique LongSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
99.9%
Thiago Kapps 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 42 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the WMich 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Davion WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+17
99.9%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 17 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Alante Thomas run for no gain to the WMich 1Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Alante Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+26
99.9%
Sean Tyler run for 26 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Griffin Alstott pass complete to Skyy Moore for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+12
100.0%
Griffin Alstott pass complete to Cam Cooper for 12 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+5
99.9%
Griffin Alstott pass complete to Ryan Selig for 5 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.9%
Griffin Alstott run for 8 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+5
99.9%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
100.0%
Griffin Alstott pass complete to Ryan Selig for 15 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
100.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:32
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q2 11:34
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 14 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q1 1:59
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com