Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 7 at Michigan State 28

MSU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG—MSU 92.1%Matt Coghlin 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q2 14:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:03 · Matt Coghlin 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior+36.5Home team on offense+4.6Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:59: Matt Coghlin 47 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. SACK · Q2 4:49: Zach Smith sacked by Kenny Willekes and Raequan Williams for a loss of 6 yards Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Raequan Williams, recovered by MchSt Kenny Willekes , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:36: Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +0.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:36: MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — MSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:20: Matt Coghlin 40 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 13TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:45MSU 4th & 1 at TLSA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:28MSU 4th & 1 at TLSA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:53MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:03MSU 4th & 6 at TLSA 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:59MSU 4th & 18 at TLSA 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−1.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:19MSU 4th & 1 at TLSA 9, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:32MSU 4th & 6 at TLSA 26, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:19TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:30MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 6, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:43TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 45, down 18
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:20MSU 4th & 10 at TLSA 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53TLSA 4th & 24 at TLSA 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:30MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:17TLSA 4th & 20 at TLSA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:35MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:02TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:34MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 38, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:52TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:00MSU 4th & 7 at TLSA 42, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    30% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TLSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:41MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:0994% → 94%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
94.1%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+26
94.0%
Brian Lewerke run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
94.0%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
94.0%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
93.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+10
93.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
93.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 3 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
93.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
93.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:036% → 7%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
93.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-6
93.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+13
93.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
93.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-5
93.3%
Zach Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
93.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Cannon Montgomery, broken up by Antjuan SimmonsSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+10
93.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 51 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0293% → 93%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
93.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 3 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
93.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
93.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 18 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-2
93.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 12
OPP 38
+11
93.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
93.0%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:227% → 7%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.7%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
92.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
92.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
92.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5793% → 92%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
92.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
92.8%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
92.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 1 yd to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-7
92.5%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
92.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:568% → 8%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
92.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
92.0%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Tiller Bucktrot) to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+10
92.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 10 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
91.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
91.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
91.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
92.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Dominique Long blocked by Dominique LongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4792% → 92%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
92.3%
Cody White run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
92.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
92.1%
Matt Coghlin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:448% → 9%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
92.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
91.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
91.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
91.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 25 yards to the Tulsa 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MchSt Kenny Willekes , return for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
10 plays · -8 yds · 2:0692% → 93%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
92.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
91.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+5
91.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 5 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
91.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+15
91.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
92.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the TULSA31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 20
OPP 31
+2
91.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 18
OPP 29
0
91.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 18
OPP 29
0
91.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q2 9:59
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+47
93.3%
Matt Coghlin 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10SF
3 plays · -19 yds · 0:317% → 7%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
93.2%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, through the endzone Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:4194% → 93%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
93.8%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
93.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
93.3%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
93.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 25 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
93.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
93.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+4
93.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 5:19
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
93.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:176% → 3%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
93.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 12
OWN 7
0
96.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Kenny Willekes and Raequan Williams for a loss of 6 yards Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Raequan Williams, recovered by MchSt Kenny Willekes , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:383% → 3%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
96.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+13
96.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Antjuan Simmons return for 13 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
97.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
97.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
97.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
97.7%
Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 1:245% → 5%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
95.3%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
95.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+15
95.4%
Smith, Zach pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (Willekes, Kenny) 15 yards to the TULSA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
94.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
94.9%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+37
94.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 37 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.8%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
93.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 28 yds for a TD, (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
94.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:366% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
94.5%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
94.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+8
95.0%
Zach Smith run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+7
94.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 54 yds , Cody White returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 16 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4595% → 95%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
95.4%
Heyward, Connor rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGANST10, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 4 yards to the MICHIGANST4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 14
OWN 4
0
95.1%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+2
95.1%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
95.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. HayesSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+5
95.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 61 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:375% → 5%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
94.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
94.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-2
94.4%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
95.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
20 plays · 73 yds · 7:1296% → 99%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
96.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 6Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
96.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+7
96.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 7 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
96.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+7
96.7%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
96.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 13 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.9%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 4
50
+4
96.9%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
97.0%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+9
97.0%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to White, Cody, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Evans, Akayleb) 9 yards to the TULSA34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
97.1%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Dotson, Matt, PENALTY MICHIGANST ineligible downfield on pass (Reid, Jordan) 5 yards to the TULSA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+8
97.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+9
97.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
97.4%
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-1
97.5%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-8
97.5%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 12 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
97.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
98.5%
Matt Coghlin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:072% → 1%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
98.4%
Zach Smith sacked by Shakur Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 18
OWN 20
-8
98.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 12 Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Jacub Panasiuk, recovered by TulsaSimilar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 26
OWN 12
+2
98.7%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 24
OWN 14
0
98.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.0%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
99.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+11
99.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 49 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 11 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+12
99.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Antjuan Simmons for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 15
OWN 30
-5
99.1%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Anthony Goodlow) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+7
99.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 49 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 32 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:4299% → 100%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Seybert) to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 15
OWN 18
-3
99.4%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+8
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+30
99.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 30 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.5%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-10
99.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kevin Jarvis) to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+1
99.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 16
OWN 47
+3
99.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 38 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
99.2%
Zach Smith sacked by Kenny Willekes and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
99.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+6
99.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+1
99.6%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+5
99.6%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+3
99.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 57 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.5%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
99.5%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Cannon MontgomerySimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-10
99.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Shakur Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 17
OWN 1
+6
99.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 50 yds , Cody White returns for 6 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-2
99.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+5
99.8%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-5
99.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Trenton Gillison) to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+2
99.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SACK · Q2 4:49
Zach Smith sacked by Kenny Willekes and Raequan Williams for a loss of 6 yards Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Raequan Williams, recovered by MchSt Kenny Willekes , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+3
FG · Q2 9:59
Matt Coghlin 47 yd FG GOOD
+1.9
TD · Q2 0:36
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com