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PSU

Penn State 59 at Maryland 0

MD
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2019 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:04 · Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense−32.8Score differential−19.7Pregame prior−8.6Garbage-time factor−7.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:55: Sean Clifford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 9:36: Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 58 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:23: Ricky Slade run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:40: Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:04: Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 11PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:55MD 4th & 10 at MD 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:36MD 4th & 1 at PSU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:18MD 4th & 5 at MD 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:43MD 4th & 11 at MD 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13MD 4th & 13 at MD 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:04MD 4th & 3 at MD 32, down 35
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:55PSU 4th & 4 at MD 34, up 38
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:55MD 4th & 6 at MD 39, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:11MD 4th & 1 at MD 31, down 45
    Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:45PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 31, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:20MD 4th & 18 at MD 31, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:24PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 37, up 45
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MD 4th & 2 at PSU 48, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:52PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 48, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:01MD 4th & 16 at MD 14, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:55PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:36PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:23PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:40PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:04PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:16PSU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:37PSU Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:49PSU Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.9%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
34.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for 5 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.9%
Josh Jackson run for 2 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.9%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 0
+8
34.9%
Josh Jackson pass intercepted Jan Johnson return for 17 yds to the MARYLAND 44 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (-9 Yards) to the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
34.9%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.1%
Josh Jackson run for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
35.2%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
35.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Marcus Minor) to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
35.0%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
34.9%
Brandon Gaddy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:1265% → 67%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
34.8%
Journey Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+3
35.0%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+58
33.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 58 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5INT
16 plays · 64 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.5%
Lorenzo Harrison III run for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
33.7%
Josh Jackson run for 6 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
33.8%
Javon Leake run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+30
33.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Sean Savoy for 15 yds to the MARYLAND 48 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, roughing passer (Micah Parsons) to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
34.2%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
34.1%
Javon Leake run for 9 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
34.1%
Josh Jackson run for no gain to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
34.0%
Javon Leake run for 2 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
34.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Ellis McKennie) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+6
34.1%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 6 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
34.2%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Jan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+10
34.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 10 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
34.2%
Josh Jackson run for no gain to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
34.2%
Josh Jackson pass intercepted Tariq Castro-Fields return for 5 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 4:5669% → 79%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
30.9%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+6
31.0%
Ricky Slade run for 6 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
30.9%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
30.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 18 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+40
30.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Dan Chisena for 40 yds to the MARYLAND 27 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
30.1%
Ricky Slade run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-1
30.2%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+15
28.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for no gain to the Mary 29 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Antoine Brooks Jr.) to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
28.7%
Ricky Slade run for 9 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
28.7%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.4%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
22.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 3 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
22.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+2
22.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
21.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:2179% → 85%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
21.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 9 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
21.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
21.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 7 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+14
21.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Justin Shorter for 14 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
20.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, personal foul (Deon Jones) to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
20.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+3
20.5%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
15.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:5315% → 11%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
14.6%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 13 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
14.7%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
10.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Anthony McFarland Jr.Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+2
10.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 2 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
10.6%
Brandon Gaddy punt for 44 yds , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 32 PENN ST Penalty, illegal block (Drew Hartlaub) to the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
15.2%
Devyn Ford run for 20 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
14.9%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Tyrrell Pigrome return for no gain to the Mary 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
10.3%
Jackson, Josh pass incomplete to Jones, Darryl (Porter Jr., J.), PENALTY PSU pass interference (Porter Jr., J.) 13 yards to the UMD43, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
10.3%
Javon Leake run for 5 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-8
10.1%
Josh Jackson sacked by Ellis Brooks for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+48
9.8%
Colton Spangler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the MARYLAND 24 PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan Sutherland) to the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:4086% → 94%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
13.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 3 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
13.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ Hamler, broken up by Antoine Brooks Jr.Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+25
14.3%
Sean Clifford run for 25 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
13.0%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
13.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 15 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
12.8%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
12.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+37
6.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.7%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
5.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 4 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
5.5%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
5.5%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:5194% → 94%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
5.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
5.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for 5 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
5.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+9
5.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 9 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
5.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for 19 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
5.3%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
5.3%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
3.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 2 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
3.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+14
3.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 14 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
6.0%
Jake Pinegar 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15MISSED FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 4:0596% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.5%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
4.5%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
4.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 14 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
4.4%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 35
+9
4.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+8
4.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 8 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
4.5%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
4.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 6 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
4.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ Hamler, broken up by Nick CrossSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
3.8%
Jordan Stout 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
2.4%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
2.3%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Sean SavoySimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+2
2.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for 2 yds to the Mary 39 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
2.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 6 , KJ Hamler returns for no gain to the PnSt 39 PENN ST Penalty, illegal block (C.J. Holmes) to the PnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 94 yds · 2:3897% → 99%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
2.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
2.3%
Journey Brown run for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
2.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+55
2.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 55 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
2.1%
Journey Brown run for 7 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.5%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
1.2%
Javon Leake run for no gain to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
1.1%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+9
1.1%
Josh Jackson run for 9 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
1.1%
Brandon Gaddy punt for 49 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
1.3%
Will Levis run for 8 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Zack KuntzSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
1.4%
Ricky Slade run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Zack Kuntz, broken up by Antoine Brooks Jr.Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
1.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-2
1.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Ricky Slade for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
1.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 30 yds, downed at the Mary 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.7%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Rayshad Lewis, broken up by Joey Porter Jr.Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
0.7%
Josh Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Jesse LuketaSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-8
0.7%
Josh Jackson sacked by Ellis Brooks and Adisa Isaac for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
0.7%
Brandon Gaddy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tariq Castro-Fields at the PnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
1.0%
Will Levis run for 8 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-3
0.9%
Devyn Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+1
0.9%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
1.0%
Blake Gillikin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Mary 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:181% → 1%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
0.5%
Josh Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+18
0.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 18 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.5%
Josh Jackson run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
0.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
50
+2
0.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 48
-4
0.5%
Josh Jackson sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 49 Josh Jackson fumbled, recovered by Mary Josh Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Noah CainSimilar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q4 12:52
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
0.6%
Blake Gillikin punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
0.3%
Javon Leake run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 16Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+3
0.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 3 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
0.3%
Josh Jackson sacked by Ellis Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+30
0.3%
Brandon Gaddy punt for 49 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 30 yds to the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
0.3%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+10
0.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Zack Kuntz for 10 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
0.3%
Devyn Ford run for 15 yds to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.3%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Will Levis run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
0.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
0.1%
PENN ST Penalty, personal foul (C.J. Holmes) to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mary 44 Tayon Fleet-Davis fumbled, forced by Keaton Ellis, recovered by PnSt Keaton EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
0.2%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
0.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Isaac Lutz for 15 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
0.2%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Mary 27Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+6
0.2%
Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+5
0.2%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
0.2%
Will Levis run for 8 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
0.1%
Will Levis run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:23
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 3:04
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 37 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q2 9:40
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 15 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com