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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:46: Javon Leake run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +5.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:19: Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +10.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:21: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 15 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt PAT MISSED) — SYR win probability +10.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:53: Josh Jackson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 15 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +10.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:56: Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 13:44SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 33, tiedClose callPunted · 45.6% before the snapGo for it45.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:16SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 42, down 14Close callPunted · 33.6% before the snapGo for it34.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:01MD 4th & 18 at SYR 46, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snapGo for it69.4%−2.313% to convertField goal69.9%−1.823% to makePuntTheir call71.7%average punt
- Q2 3:05SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 34, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%average punt
- Q3 9:49MD 4th & 4 at MD 31, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q3 7:54SYR 4th & 20 at MD 42, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.110% to convertField goal1.0%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 4:14SYR 4th & 8 at MD 24, down 29Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.133% to convertField goal0.8%68% to makePunt0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 0:31MD 4th & 8 at MD 38, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 12:19SYR 4th & 3 at MD 42, down 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%52% to convertField goal0.2%−0.130% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:04SYR 4th & 5 at MD 8, down 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%34% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.190% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:07MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.5%97% to makeGo for two55.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:01MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:40SYR Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.0%97% to makeGo for two40.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:46MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.9%97% to makeGo for two65.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:19MD Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.3%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:21SYR Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call26.6%97% to makeGo for two26.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:53MD Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:56MD Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 13:06MD Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:36SYR Touchdown, down 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.5%97% to makeGo for two1.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:13MD Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:24MD Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1640% → 40%
Q1 13:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
60.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DJ Turner at the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2TD5 plays · 67 yds · 1:1060% → 62%
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+40
60.4%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Darryl Jones for 40 yds to the Syrac 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
60.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 16 yds to the Syrac 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3FUMBLE6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5239% → 38%
Q1 11:03
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+2
61.8%
Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds to the Syrac 32 Tommy DeVito fumbled, recovered by MarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3862% → 65%
SYRDrive 5TD11 plays · 91 yds · 3:4635% → 37%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
65.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 7 yds to the Syrac 16Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+5
65.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 5 yds to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
65.9%
Abdul Adams run for 4 yds to the Syrac 25 Abdul Adams fumbled, recovered by SyracSimilar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+33
66.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 33 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+29
65.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 29 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
66.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Jordan Mosley for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
62.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2364% → 72%
Q1 3:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
64.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 5 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
65.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Darryl Jones for 18 yds to the Syrac 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
66.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 17 yds to the Syrac 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5930% → 30%
MDDrive 8PUNT12 plays · 37 yds · 3:4372% → 74%
Q2 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+7
72.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+14
73.5%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 14 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+6
74.6%
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 6 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-8
75.1%
Josh Jackson sacked by Curtis Harper for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 46Similar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
74.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9INT2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2127% → 27%
MDDrive 10TD2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0676% → 87%
SYRDrive 11TD7 plays · 69 yds · 1:2116% → 27%
MDDrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1877% → 90%
Q2 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
76.9%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Darryl Jones for 12 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+23
78.7%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 23 yds to the Syrac 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.1%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 15 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:1912% → 11%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
88.2%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Keandre Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 23Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+10
89.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for 10 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
89.2%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD8 plays · 86 yds · 2:0591% → 98%
Q2 2:07
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+4
91.6%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 4 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+29
92.3%
Josh Jackson pass complete to DJ Turner for 29 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
93.0%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for 39 yds to the Syrac 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.8%
Josh Jackson pass complete to Anthony McFarland Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15END OF HALF3 plays · 7 yds · 0:173% → 2%
MDDrive 16TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
SYRDrive 17TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:142% → 1%
Q3 12:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
98.5%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Keiron Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 26Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
98.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 11 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
98.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for 9 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
98.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for 2 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
98.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 52 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2199% → 99%
Q3 9:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 32 yds , Sean Riley returns for 15 yds to the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
98.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 16 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-13
98.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Keandre Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 23
OPP 45
+8
99.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 8 yds to the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20INT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
SYRDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 2 yds · 1:011% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
SYRDrive 23DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
99.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 10 yds to the Syrac 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 4 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 10 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
99.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24TD9 plays · 58 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
SYRDrive 25DOWNS13 plays · 69 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 11 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 19 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 1 yd to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+10
99.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 5 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for no gain to the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26TD3 plays · 92 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:53
Josh Jackson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 15 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 9:19
Anthony McFarland Jr. run for 20 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q2 7:21
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 15 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt PAT MISSED)
-10.3