Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 19 at Iowa 23

IOWA
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.7IOWA 90.8%Keith Duncan 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 23 · Q4 7:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:13 · Keith Duncan 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialPregame priorBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+20.9Garbage-time factor+12.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Score differential+2.6Pregame prior+0.6Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:18: Tyler Goodson run for 10 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +7.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:47: Brock Walker 24 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +4.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:20: Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +11.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:35: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK) — MINN win probability +13.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:27: Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Walker PAT MISSED) — MINN win probability +17.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:47IOWA 4th & 1 at MINN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:45MINN 4th & 13 at IOWA 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:47MINN 4th & 6 at IOWA 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:00MINN 4th & 1 at IOWA 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−2.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−9.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:30MINN 4th & 5 at IOWA 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24MINN 4th & 18 at IOWA 33, down 17
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:39IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:00IOWA 4th & 19 at IOWA 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−3.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:54IOWA 4th & 27 at IOWA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−5.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:22MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:13IOWA 4th & 8 at MINN 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:52IOWA 4th & 5 at MINN 42, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−2.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:46MINN 4th & 21 at MINN 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:26IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:18IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:20IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:35MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:27MINN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    19.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2855% → 57%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Micah Dew-Treadway) to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
55.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+26
55.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 26 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
55.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+8
55.6%
Nate Stanley run for 8 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+11
55.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
57.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:0344% → 41%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
56.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
56.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Cam Wiley for no gain to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+17
57.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
56.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
56.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+20
57.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 20 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
56.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+4
56.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 4 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
56.5%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
56.7%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-4
57.4%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Brady Reiff and Chauncey Golston for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
59.4%
Brock Walker 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:2159% → 69%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
59.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+21
60.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 21 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
60.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-5
61.3%
Stanley, Nate pass incomplete to Tracy Jr., Tyrone, PENALTY IOWA ineligible downfield on pass (Beyer, Shaun) 5 yards to the MINNESOTA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
61.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
60.9%
Nate Stanley run for 4 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
61.3%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
61.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 11 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
61.9%
Nate Stanley run for 4 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
69.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 10 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG
13 plays · 87 yds · 5:1332% → 35%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+46
67.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 46 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
66.0%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
66.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
66.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 5 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
66.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 11 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
67.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 6 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
67.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Iowa 16Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+8
68.5%
Seth Green run for 8 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
68.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
68.4%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
65.5%
Brock Walker 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1366% → 81%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
65.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 15 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
66.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+27
67.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 27 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
68.6%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 11 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
69.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 9 yds to the Minn 5Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
80.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:4923% → 19%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
77.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 38 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
75.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
75.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
76.4%
Seth Green run for no gain to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-4
77.6%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Iowa 22 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+7
78.3%
Tanner Morgan run for 7 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
77.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Kristian Welch for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 18
OPP 33
0
79.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
80.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 18
OPP 33
0
81.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 31 yds, downed at the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1185% → 88%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
84.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-1
84.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+7
86.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+11
87.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 46 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8END OF HALF
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:2815% → 24%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
84.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 29 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
80.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 11 yds to the Iowa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
79.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
79.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
80.3%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Johnson, Tyler, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Moss, Riley) 4 yards to the IOWA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
76.0%
Brock Walker 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 3:0322% → 36%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
78.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 7 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+18
77.8%
Rodney Smith run for 18 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
77.7%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+12
78.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Iowa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
77.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
64.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:2770% → 73%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
70.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
69.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 12 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
71.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 9 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+11
75.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 11 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
75.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-9
75.4%
Nate Stanley sacked by Boye Mafe for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 19
OWN 46
0
72.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:1029% → 25%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
70.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+14
71.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 14 yds to the Minn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
70.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
70.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 4 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+13
70.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 13 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
68.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
70.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rodney Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 6
50
+30
71.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 30 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
69.0%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
69.8%
Tanner Morgan sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 25 Tanner Morgan fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by Minn Shannon Brooks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+11
75.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 11 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2282% → 84%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
81.5%
IOWA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (7 Yards) to the Iowa 7, MINNESOTA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
82.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for no gain to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+20
83.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 20 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
85.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 17 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
86.1%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
86.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 11
OPP 42
-16
85.7%
Nate Stanley sacked by Braelen Oliver for a loss of 16 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 27
OWN 42
0
83.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2619% → 17%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+1
80.9%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 24Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-2
82.2%
Tanner Morgan sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 22Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+17
83.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Max Cooper at the IOWA 46 MINNESOTA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:3487% → 91%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
87.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 1
OPP 30
-1
87.5%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+8
86.8%
Nate Stanley run for 8 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
88.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
88.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+7
87.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the Minn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
88.6%
Nate Stanley run for 2 yds to the Minn 10Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
89.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
90.8%
Keith Duncan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:339% → 25%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
91.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 17 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
90.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 16 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.1%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
90.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
90.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 15 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
89.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 5 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
89.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Demetrius Douglas for 5 yds to the Iowa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
89.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 14 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Walker PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:2390% → 91%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
90.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
91.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
90.4%
Nate Stanley run for no gain to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
91.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17INT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4911% → 8%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
88.6%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 17Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-8
90.3%
Tanner Morgan sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 9Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
91.6%
Cole Kramer pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
91.9%
Cole Kramer pass intercepted Riley Moss return for no gain to the Minn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:2596% → 96%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-3
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:27
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Walker PAT MISSED)
-17.4
TD · Q3 11:35
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 28 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q2 6:20
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com