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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreIOWA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:31 · Keith Duncan 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:14: Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +7.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:16: Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 27 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +6.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:06: Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 3 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:27: Keith Duncan 39 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +9.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:12: Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — IOWA win probability +26.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 12:41WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snapGo for it69.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%average punt
- Q1 9:56IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it30.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.3%average punt
- Q1 7:38IOWA 4th & 6 at WIS 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.2%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call31.2%91% to makePunt30.1%−1.1average punt
- Q1 1:38WIS 4th & 7 at IOWA 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snapGo for it66.6%−0.234% to convertField goalTheir call66.8%85% to makePunt64.4%−2.4average punt
- Q2 6:31IOWA 4th & 3 at WIS 22, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.9%52% to convertField goalTheir call31.4%−0.572% to makePunt27.8%−4.1average punt
- Q3 12:58IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 43, down 8Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snapGo for it22.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%−0.9average punt
- Q3 10:59WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 22, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snapGo for it77.3%−0.951% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q3 9:00IOWA 4th & 5 at WIS 43, down 8Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it23.4%42% to convertField goal21.4%−1.928% to makePuntTheir call22.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:11WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 27, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it81.0%−0.939% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%average punt
- Q3 4:24IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 37, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it16.4%−2.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q4 11:57IOWA 4th & 1 at WIS 38, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.4%70% to convertField goal11.2%−5.238% to makePunt10.6%−5.7average punt
- Q4 9:27IOWA 4th & 7 at WIS 21, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snapGo for it13.0%−2.935% to convertField goalTheir call15.9%74% to makePunt3.6%−12.2average punt
- Q4 3:29WIS 4th & 5 at IOWA 11, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call86.1%87% to makePunt75.1%−11.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 9:44WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:14WIS Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.9%97% to makeGo for two75.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:16WIS Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:06IOWA Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.7%97% to makeGo for two16.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:12IOWA Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick30.8%−0.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call31.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 2:1970% → 70%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
70.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 12 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
70.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 7 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-5
70.3%
Taylor, Jonathan rush for 4 yards to the WISCONSIN48, PENALTY WISCONSIN illegal formation 5 yards to the WISCONSIN39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
70.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 33 yds , Max Cooper returns for no gain to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 2:3530% → 30%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
70.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 16 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
69.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-8
69.3%
Nate Stanley sacked by Matt Henningsen for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
69.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3FUMBLE4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1170% → 69%
Q1 8:40
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
69.0%
Jack Coan sacked by A.J. Epenesa to the Wisc 16 Jack Coan fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by IowaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4FG5 plays · 10 yds · 0:5432% → 32%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
68.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Holding (8 Yards) to the Wisc 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5MISSED FG14 plays · 58 yds · 5:4869% → 66%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
68.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 4 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 39 yds · 2:4834% → 37%
Q2 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
63.1%
Nate Stanley run for no gain to the Wisc 41 Nate Stanley fumbled, recovered by WiscSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD8 plays · 59 yds · 3:5566% → 71%
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
66.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 5 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
65.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 5 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
66.5%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Cephus, Quintez, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Ojemudia, Michael) 15 yards to the IOWA19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8FG9 plays · 53 yds · 3:0732% → 34%
Q2 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+22
67.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the Iowa 33 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Noah Burks) to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD15 plays · 76 yds · 6:0268% → 80%
Q2 5:22
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+6
67.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 6 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
68.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 11 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+14
71.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 14 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 4 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 1:5823% → 23%
Q3 14:51
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
77.6%
Stanley, Nate pass incomplete to Smith-Marsette, Ihmir, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Wildgoose, Rachad) 15 yards to the IOWA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
77.5%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5379% → 77%
IOWADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4923% → 23%
WISDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4279% → 80%
Q3 8:16
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
79.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 3 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+8
79.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 8 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
80.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 4 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
80.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Max Cooper at the Iowa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4222% → 18%
WISDrive 16TD4 plays · 86 yds · 1:5984% → 93%
IOWADrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:049% → 19%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
91.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 26 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
90.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 17 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+3
89.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 3 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
89.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 8 yds to the Wisc 14Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+12
89.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 12 yds to the Wisc 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 3 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18INT4 plays · 20 yds · 1:0986% → 88%
Q4 12:42
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Matt Hankins return for no gain to the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FG11 plays · 26 yds · 3:0919% → 26%
Q4 12:21
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
83.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
81.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 9 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+3
79.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 3 yds to the Wisc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
80.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 3 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20FG13 plays · 64 yds · 5:5079% → 94%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
83.6%
Taylor, Jonathan rush for 5 yards to the IOWA34, PENALTY WISCONSIN illegal formation 5 yards to the IOWA44, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
66.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22Uncategorized11 plays · 62 yds · 2:3675% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:12
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-26.8
FG · Q4 9:27
Keith Duncan 39 yd FG GOOD
-9.5
TD · Q4 14:06
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 3 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
-9