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PSU

Penn State 17 at Iowa 12

IOWA
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:33 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−8.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 2:08: Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:01: Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Iowa 34 — PSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:17: Noah Cain run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:31: Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 33 yds for a TD, (Nate Stanley intercepted ) — IOWA win probability +24.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:24: Timeout IOWA, clock 02:24 — PSU win probability +14.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:33IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57PSU 4th & 18 at IOWA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:33IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:31IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:40PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:12IOWA 4th & 19 at PSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:02PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:16IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:01IOWA 4th & 7 at PSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:46PSU 4th & 10 at IOWA 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:20IOWA 4th & 5 at PSU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:32PSU 4th & 10 at IOWA 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−2.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:50IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:19PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:08PSU 4th & 15 at IOWA 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−5.2
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−15.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:00IOWA 4th & 14 at PSU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:13PSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−2.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:00IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 8:36PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:17PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2242% → 42%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
42.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
42.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3258% → 57%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
42.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Journey BrownSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
42.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Cedrick Lattimore and Brady Reiff for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 15
OPP 46
-3
42.5%
Sean Clifford sacked by Chauncey Golston and TEAM for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
42.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 32 yds, downed at the Iowa 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:1443% → 44%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
42.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
43.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+6
42.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
43.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
43.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 8 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 38
0
43.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
43.5%
Nate Stanley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
43.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
43.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyler GoodsonSimilar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
43.6%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4556% → 56%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-BrownSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.6%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
44.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
44.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:1844% → 46%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
43.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 8 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+9
44.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
50
+1
44.9%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+17
45.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 17 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
45.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
45.6%
Toren Young run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+10
45.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 10 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
46.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-9
46.7%
Nate Stanley sacked by Robert Windsor and Shaka Toney for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+1
45.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 1 yd to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 19
OPP 29
+47
45.6%
Keith Duncan 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5853% → 52%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
46.6%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
46.2%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
46.4%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-2
45.7%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
47.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
48.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4447% → 46%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
47.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
47.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
46.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+5
46.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 53 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 32 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Drew Hartlaub) to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 5:3752% → 60%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
47.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
48.0%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
48.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 6 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
48.4%
Devyn Ford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+9
48.2%
Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
46.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 13 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
46.4%
Jahan Dotson run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 14
50
+13
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 13 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
46.4%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
46.6%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+6
45.8%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
45.6%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
45.7%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
40.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 22 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1943% → 43%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
43.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 9 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
44.5%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
43.6%
Nate Stanley run for 4 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
44.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 29 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
46.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-1
46.1%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
44.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
43.3%
Keith Duncan 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:0459% → 60%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
41.0%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
40.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+6
40.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
39.1%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
38.0%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
38.0%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
37.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Nick BowersSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
37.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
38.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
39.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 1:0841% → 43%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
41.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+10
41.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (John Reid) to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
41.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 25 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
44.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 11 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
45.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
45.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+36
42.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 36 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
45.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
42.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
43.2%
Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
42.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:1256% → 54%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
44.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
43.4%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
44.5%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
43.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Justin Shorter for 12 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
42.4%
Journey Brown run for 8 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
41.4%
Ricky Slade run for 2 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
42.1%
Ricky Slade run for 6 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-1
41.8%
Ricky Slade run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-5
42.6%
Sean Clifford sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
46.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, downed at the Iowa 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3046% → 45%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
46.3%
Toren Young run for 9 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+17
46.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 17 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
47.6%
Nate Stanley sacked by Robert Windsor for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 18
OWN 21
0
46.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 18
OWN 21
+6
45.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
44.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2455% → 52%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
45.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rasheed Walker) to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+4
46.1%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 22
0
46.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+8
47.9%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
48.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 62 yds, downed at the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2947% → 47%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
46.9%
Toren Young run for 7 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
47.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 2 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+5
45.8%
Nate Stanley run for 5 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
47.2%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 16 Tyler Goodson fumbled, forced by PJ Mustipher, recovered by PnSt Jan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 1 yds · 2:3060% → 64%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
40.2%
Journey Brown run for 5 yds to the Iowa 11Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+5
40.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 5 yds to the Iowa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
40.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Fries) to the Iowa 16Similar
Q3 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+15
40.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 15 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
40.1%
Journey Brown run for no gain to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
41.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (C.J. Thorpe) to the Iowa 11Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
42.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Steven Gonzalez) to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
44.0%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
36.4%
Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:4538% → 36%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
37.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 16 yds Brandon Smith fumbled, forced by Keaton Ellis, recovered by Iowa Toren Young for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
40.9%
Toren Young run for 6 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
42.0%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 1
50
-5
41.6%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Nate Wieting) to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+18
39.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 18 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
42.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nate WietingSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
42.5%
Toren Young run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
38.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
35.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 31 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:3766% → 70%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
34.0%
Noah Cain run for 12 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
33.7%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
33.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
32.2%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
30.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 7 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
29.6%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
28.4%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
28.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 1 yd to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
27.2%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
27.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
29.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 33 yds, downed at the Iowa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:4136% → 36%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
36.1%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
36.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+15
33.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (John Reid) to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
36.3%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Jaquan Brisker return for 4 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:4475% → 92%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
25.5%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Iowa 34Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
25.0%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
25.6%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 35Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+11
25.5%
Sean Clifford run for 11 yds to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
22.9%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+6
21.1%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+7
22.4%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
19.8%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.2%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 2:3910% → 34%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
9.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
9.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 2 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+13
8.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 13 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
9.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 15 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
7.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
7.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 5 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+9
7.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
8.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
10.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nate WietingSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
9.3%
Nate Stanley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33 Nate Stanley fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nate Stanley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
33.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 33 yds for a TD, (Nate Stanley intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 7 yds · 2:2487% → 96%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
12.7%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
11.9%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
12.6%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.7%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
5.8%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-10
4.4%
Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:31
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 33 yds for a TD, (Nate Stanley intercepted )
+24.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:24
Timeout IOWA, clock 02:24
-14.2
TD · Q4 5:17
Noah Cain run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com