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IOWA

Iowa 3 at Michigan 10

MICH
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:07 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 56 yds, downed at the Mich 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+8.0Pregame prior+4.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+1.9Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:11: Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mich 7 — MICH win probability +4.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:37: Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 10 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST down — MICH win probability +6.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:43: Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Mich 19 — MICH win probability +4.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31: Nate Stanley pass incomplete — IOWA win probability +5.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 41 — MICH win probability +6.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 10IOWA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:48MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:19MICH 4th & 2 at IOWA 10, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:37IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:46IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:43MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:18IOWA 4th & 4 at MICH 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:36MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:29IOWA 4th & 19 at MICH 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:37MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:15IOWA 4th & 3 at MICH 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−2.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:44MICH 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:07IOWA 4th & 21 at IOWA 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−4.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:13MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−4.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:47IOWA 4th & 9 at MICH 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01MICH 4th & 7 at IOWA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−9.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:14IOWA 4th & 25 at IOWA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−3.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:08MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:35MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:14IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:37IOWA 4th & 10 at MICH 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:33MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:0764% → 64%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
64.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.2%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
64.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Christian TurnerSimilar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
64.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
64.1%
Will Hart punt for 40 yds, downed at the Iowa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
64.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 18 Mekhi Sargent fumbled, recovered by Mich Ambry ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1764% → 65%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
64.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
64.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
64.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 2 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
64.5%
Jake Moody 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3536% → 36%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
64.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
64.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
64.1%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
64.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5264% → 67%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+51
64.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 51 yds to the Iowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
65.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
65.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+8
65.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 8 yds to the Iowa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
65.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Iowa 2Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4235% → 33%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
50
0
65.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
50
-6
65.7%
Nate Stanley sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+4
66.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 12
OWN 48
+36
66.9%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 48 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 36 yds to the Mich 40 Donovan Peoples-Jones fumbled, recovered by Mich Gemon GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1567% → 68%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
67.4%
Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the Mich 45 Christian Turner fumbled, recovered by Mich Ben BredesonSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
67.6%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Geno Stone return for no gain to the Iowa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4234% → 34%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
66.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
66.3%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Josh Metellus return for no gain to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1768% → 68%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
67.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+7
67.9%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
68.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
67.7%
Will Hart punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:5432% → 32%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.7%
Toren Young run for 6 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
67.5%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
68.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 7 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
67.7%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+5
68.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 6
50
+15
67.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
67.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 11 yds to the Mich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
67.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+9
67.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Mich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
67.7%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Mich 9Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
67.8%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
69.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Oliver MartinSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
68.4%
Keith Duncan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3670% → 70%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
69.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+10
69.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 10 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
71.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
70.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+3
70.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
70.0%
Will Hart punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 38 yds · 4:0030% → 28%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.2%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
70.3%
Nate Stanley sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 13Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 17
OWN 13
-5
71.3%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 8Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+34
71.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 34 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
70.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.0%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
69.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+6
69.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 6 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
68.4%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-7
68.3%
Nate Stanley sacked by Jordan Glasgow for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 14
OPP 37
0
71.4%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 14
OPP 37
-5
72.3%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
72.4%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4172% → 71%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-8
72.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 6Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 18
OWN 6
+1
72.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Christian Turner for 1 yd to the Mich 7Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 17
OWN 7
+7
71.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 7 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+17
71.1%
Will Hart punt for 55 yds , Nico Ragaini returns for 17 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0230% → 32%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
71.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+19
71.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 19 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
68.3%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Lavert Hill return for no gain to the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:1173% → 77%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
72.9%
Tru Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+6
71.8%
Tru Wilson run for 6 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+18
72.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 18 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
72.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
74.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 7 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
74.8%
IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+58
76.8%
Quinn Nordin 58 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4028% → 29%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.8%
Toren Young run for 15 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
70.7%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-8
70.2%
Nate Stanley sacked by Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 35Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+22
73.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 22 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
69.4%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
69.1%
Toren Young run for 2 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
69.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi SargentSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
71.3%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Ambry Thomas return for no gain to the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2774% → 76%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
73.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
74.7%
Shea Patterson run for 15 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
76.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+4
76.7%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
77.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+4
76.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
75.5%
Will Hart punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:2627% → 24%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
73.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 15 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
73.0%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 26Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
74.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for no gain to the Iowa 26Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 20
OWN 26
-1
75.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 56 yds, downed at the Mich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:3878% → 80%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
77.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 2 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
77.9%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 3:46
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+10
77.0%
Shea Patterson run for 10 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-9
78.7%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for a loss of 9 yards to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 19
OWN 24
-7
79.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 26
OWN 17
+8
78.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 8 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 1:13
4TH & 18
OWN 25
+17
79.7%
Will Hart punt for 59 yds , Nico Ragaini returns for 17 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:2124% → 23%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
76.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 27 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
73.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-4
71.2%
Nate Stanley sacked by Michael Danna for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
74.3%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
77.2%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3684% → 85%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
83.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 10 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
83.9%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+10
84.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 10 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
85.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 20 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
86.7%
Tru Wilson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+11
87.2%
Tru Wilson run for 11 yds to the Iowa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
87.1%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
86.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
85.3%
Jake Moody 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:4019% → 16%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
81.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 12 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
80.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
79.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 6 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-9
78.2%
Nate Stanley sacked by Jordan Glasgow for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 39Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-12
82.2%
Nate Stanley sacked by Cameron McGrone for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 25
OWN 27
0
84.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5288% → 88%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
88.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
88.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-5
87.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+10
87.6%
Will Hart punt for 35 yds , Nico Ragaini returns for 10 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:0616% → 12%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
83.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
81.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
82.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 31 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
79.0%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 20
OPP 35
-10
80.7%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 30
OPP 45
+5
83.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+6
84.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 6 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 19
OPP 34
-5
85.4%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 24
OPP 39
-12
86.9%
Nate Stanley sacked by Cameron McGrone and Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 36
OWN 49
0
88.1%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0893% → 94%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
92.7%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+4
93.1%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+10
93.5%
Will Hart punt for 44 yds , Nico Ragaini returns for 10 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3112% → 4%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.7%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
88.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+2
88.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+11
90.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 11 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
88.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nate WietingSimilar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-1
89.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 41
+6.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:37
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 10 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST down
+6.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31
Nate Stanley pass incomplete
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com