Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 3 at Iowa 48

IOWA
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:12 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the Iowa 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+31.2Home team on offense+16.0Score differential+11.7Garbage-time factor+6.1Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:15: Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 18 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:33: Brady Ross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 10:52: Keith Duncan 42 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:24: Crews Holt 43 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:19: Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 14 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:01MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:54IOWA 4th & 6 at MTSU 31, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:33MTSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 43, down 24
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:12IOWA 4th & 11 at IOWA 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:37MTSU 4th & 15 at IOWA 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57IOWA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:52IOWA 4th & 7 at MTSU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:24MTSU 4th & 11 at IOWA 26, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:19MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:01MTSU 4th & 23 at MTSU 42, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:12IOWA 4th & 3 at MTSU 37, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:47IOWA 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:01IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33IOWA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:19IOWA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:01IOWA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:47IOWA Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5994% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
94.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
94.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
94.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+14
94.2%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
94.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+19
94.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 19 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
93.6%
[SG], O'HARA, Asher pass complete to MARSHALL, Jimmy for 6 yards to the MT31 (Niemann,Nick), PENALTY MT illegal block (GILCHRIST, Will) 12 yards to the MT13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
93.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+11
93.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 11 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
93.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds, downed at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 5:0194% → 93%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.5%
Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Smith,Brandon, PENALTY IOWA illegal shift (Paulsen,Levi) 5 yards to the IOWA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
93.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 10 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
93.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
93.5%
Nate Stanley run for 10 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.6%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+16
93.6%
Toren Young run for 16 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
93.6%
[SG], Stanley,Nate pass incomplete to Wieting,Nate, PENALTY IOWA holding (Banwart,Cole) 10 yards to the MT45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+18
93.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-5
93.6%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
93.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 3
OPP 28
-3
93.6%
Toren Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
92.9%
Keith Duncan 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.6%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Cedrick Lattimore for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
92.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
92.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:4793% → 95%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
92.6%
Sargent,Mekhi rush right for 17 yards to the IOWA46, out-of-bounds (ROSS, Teldrick), PENALTY IOWA illegal block off-setting, PENALTY MT face mask off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
92.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 12 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for no gain to the Iowa 41Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+33
92.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 33 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
92.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+18
94.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 18 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:156% → 6%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.4%
Terelle West run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
94.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
94.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 15 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
94.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-10
94.2%
[SG], O'HARA, Asher pass complete to WINDHAM, CJ for 7 yards to the IOWA38, out-of-bounds (Johnson,D.J.), PENALTY MT holding (JONES, Robert) 10 yards to the MT45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:2495% → 97%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
94.8%
Toren Young run for 18 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
94.8%
Toren Young run for 6 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+15
95.0%
Toren Young run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
95.0%
Nate Stanley sacked by Tyshun Render for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+38
94.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 38 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
95.0%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
95.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
94.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Brady Ross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.3%
Jayy McDonald run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
96.1%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+21
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 21 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.9%
Brad Anderson run for no gain to the Iowa 45 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
96.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
96.0%
[SG], PENALTY MT false start (HARRIS, Luke) 5 yards to the IOWA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
96.1%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-6
97.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 2Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 16
OWN 2
+5
97.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 7Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
97.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
96.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
96.1%
DJ England-Chisolm run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+7
96.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-8
96.1%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Daviyon Nixon for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 46 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, tripping ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
96.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds, downed at the Iowa 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11MISSED FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
97.5%
Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+1
97.7%
Nate Stanley run for 1 yd to the Iowa 5Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+9
97.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 9 yds to the Iowa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+27
97.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 27 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
98.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 1
50
0
98.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 1
50
+3
97.9%
Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
97.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 12 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.0%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
97.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+14
97.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+39
97.9%
Keith Duncan 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
97.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 9 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
96.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall, broken up by A.J. EpenesaSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-10
96.7%
[SG], O'HARA, Asher rush up middle for 2 yards to the MT49 (Lattimore,C.), PENALTY MT holding (OWENS, Angelo) 10 yards to the MT37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-15
97.0%
[SG], O'HARA, Asher pass complete to ALI, Yusuf for 13 yards to the 50 yardline (Ojemudia,M.), PENALTY MT pass interference (PIERCE, Jarrin) 15 yards to the MT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 26
OWN 22
+7
97.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
97.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:2298% → 100%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+52
97.7%
Toren Young run for 52 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
97.9%
Toren Young run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
97.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
97.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
99.5%
Keith Duncan 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 5:281% → 2%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.5%
Brad Anderson run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Brad Anderson run for no gain to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
99.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 9 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+8
99.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
99.4%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
99.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Terelle West for no gain to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-5
99.4%
[SG], PENALTY MT false start (WINDHAM, CJ) 5 yards to the IOWA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
99.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+43
98.1%
Crews Holt 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0598% → 100%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.4%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
98.4%
Toren Young run for 11 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
98.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
98.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
98.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+33
98.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 33 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 14 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
99.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
99.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 10 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
99.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
99.8%
Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-11
99.8%
Nate Stanley sacked by Rakavian Poydras for a loss of 11 yards to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+35
99.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 35 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Isiah Upton for 12 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.9%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-10
99.9%
[SG], MCDONALD, Jayy rush up middle for 17 yards to the IOWA31 (Harris, Jermari), PENALTY MT holding (LUCKETT, Amir) 10 yards to the MT42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 23
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 23
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nico Ragaini at the Iowa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 6:25100% → 100%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 25 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Oliver Martin for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 7 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 27 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Monte Pottebaum run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Turner Pallissard run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Jayy McDonald run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:33
Brady Ross run for 1 yd for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q1 0:15
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 18 yds for a TD, (Keith Duncan KICK)
+1.8
FG · Q3 10:52
Keith Duncan 42 yd FG GOOD
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com