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IU

Indiana 27 at Penn State 34

PSU
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:13 · Jared Smolar on-side kick recovered by PENN ST at the PnSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:24: Journey Brown run for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:04: Logan Justus 25 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +3.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:45: Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +20.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 1:44: Sean Clifford run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:13: Logan Justus 27 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +7.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:50PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:22PSU 4th & 3 at IU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:08IU 4th & 7 at IU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:47IU 4th & 6 at IU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:03PSU 4th & 9 at IU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19IU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:52IU 4th & 1 at IU 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.7%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:04IU 4th & 7 at PSU 7, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:07PSU 4th & 9 at IU 42, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.8%−0.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:50PSU 4th & 1 at IU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−5.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−19.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:44PSU 4th & 1 at IU 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−9.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−30.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:25IU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:04PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:31IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:27IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:03PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:24PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:45IU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:44PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0181% → 81%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
81.2%
Journey Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
81.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 13
OWN 19
-3
80.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 51 yds , Whop Philyor returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 27 Whop Philyor fumbled, recovered by PnSt Jan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:4281% → 81%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
81.0%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+11
80.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 11 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
80.8%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Ind 12Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
81.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Nick Bowers for 12 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3019% → 21%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+24
81.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 24 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
80.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 8 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
80.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
79.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 38 yds for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:4880% → 80%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
79.7%
Journey Brown run for no gain to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
79.4%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+7
79.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+41
79.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 41 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
79.7%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
79.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+6
79.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 6 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
79.6%
Jake Pinegar 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3321% → 24%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 3 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
78.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+42
79.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 42 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
78.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 14 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
77.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
77.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 2 yds Matt Bjorson fumbled, recovered by IndSimilar
Q1 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:0776% → 79%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
76.2%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
76.5%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+9
75.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
76.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 17 yds Pat Freiermuth fumbled, forced by James Miller, recovered by PnSt Pat Freiermuth for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
78.8%
Sean Clifford run for 38 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4222% → 22%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 5 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
77.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
77.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+3
78.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
78.1%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:5377% → 79%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
77.3%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Devyn FordSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+5
76.6%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+15
76.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 15 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
78.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
77.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
77.1%
Sean Clifford run for 12 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
78.3%
Devyn Ford run for 19 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
78.5%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the Ind 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
76.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 4 yds to the Ind 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:0678% → 76%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.9%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the Ind 38Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-7
77.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by James Miller for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 45 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-7
77.0%
Sean Clifford sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 24
OWN 48
0
75.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ind 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2823% → 23%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
76.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 1 yd to the Ind 9Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+11
76.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 11 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
76.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to David EllisSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
76.8%
INDIANA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ind 18Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+6
77.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
77.3%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:2777% → 80%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
77.1%
Journey Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
77.5%
Journey Brown run for 6 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
77.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 14 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
78.0%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+21
77.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 21 yds to the Ind 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
77.9%
Journey Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 10Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
77.8%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the Ind 9Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
80.4%
Jake Pinegar 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:1720% → 21%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
78.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
78.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
78.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 3 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
78.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 7 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
77.5%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 16
OWN 40
+10
79.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 6
50
0
77.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 6
50
0
79.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
80.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 15 yds · 4:0822% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.6%
INDIANA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
77.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 12 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
76.1%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
77.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 3 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
75.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
75.1%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-4
78.9%
Peyton Hendershot run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1882% → 91%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
81.9%
Journey Brown run for 5 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
90.6%
Journey Brown run for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 7:0611% → 14%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
89.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Stevie Scott IIISimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
89.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 14 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the Ind 43Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
89.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 10 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
88.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
88.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 11 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
88.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 11 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
87.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
88.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 9 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
88.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
88.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Donavan HaleSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
86.2%
Logan Justus 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:3787% → 88%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.2%
Journey Brown run for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
87.7%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
88.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+18
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for 18 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
88.8%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the Ind 42Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
88.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Ricky SladeSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
88.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
87.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 33 yds, downed at the Ind 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 5:1212% → 34%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
88.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 10Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+12
89.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 12 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
88.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 9 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
87.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
88.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 2 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+39
88.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 39 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
85.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 11 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
85.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 7 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
85.7%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+7
86.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 7 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:3677% → 97%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.0%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
77.3%
Journey Brown run for 13 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
78.9%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
77.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
77.3%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
80.4%
Journey Brown run for no gain to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+15
80.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 15 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
82.0%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
81.8%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
81.2%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the Ind 24Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+3
79.7%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
83.0%
Journey Brown run for 7 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
84.6%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+6
85.4%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
87.8%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the Ind 5Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
90.8%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the Ind 4Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
89.5%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 1:173% → 13%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 11 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
96.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 10 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 5 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-5
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 6
50
+46
96.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 46 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to David EllisSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
94.8%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 9Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ronnie Walker Jr.Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
87.1%
Logan Justus 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:45
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd for a TD (Logan Justus KICK)
-20.8
TD · Q3 10:24
Journey Brown run for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+8.7
FG · Q4 0:13
Logan Justus 27 yd FG GOOD
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com