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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:43 · Elijah Barnwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- SACK · Q2 7:39: Johnny Langan sacked by Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 42 — RUTG win probability +0.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:38: Stevie Scott III run for 26 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST down — IU win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:22: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 54 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST down — IU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the Ind 34 — IU win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:55: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 14:50RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q1 12:14RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q1 8:08RUTG 4th & 18 at IU 36, down 21Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.3%−0.113% to convertField goal4.4%42% to makePunt4.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:43RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it4.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00IU 4th & 12 at IU 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q2 14:37RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 4, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 13:03RUTG 4th & 10 at IU 38, down 21Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.6%30% to convertField goal3.5%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call3.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:47IU 4th & 9 at IU 14, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q2 7:39RUTG 4th & 25 at RUTG 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 5:38IU 4th & 6 at RUTG 48, up 21Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 4:26RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q2 1:48IU 4th & 1 at RUTG 5, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%67% to convertField goal96.9%−0.792% to makePunt95.3%−2.4average punt
- Q3 12:55RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 4:02RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 26, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00IU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 35Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:25RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 24, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:58IU 4th & 12 at RUTG 25, up 35Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.122% to convertField goal99.9%66% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:14IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:08IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:55IU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:02IU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1FUMBLE TD2 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
96.7%
Johnny Langan sacked by Demarcus Elliott for a loss of 8 yards Johnny Langan fumbled, recovered by Ind Reakwon Jones , return for 0 yards , return for 17 yds, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
96.7%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aaron Young for 4 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD2 plays · 70 yds · 0:4797% → 97%
RUTGDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 3%
IUDrive 5TD6 plays · 59 yds · 2:4397% → 97%
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
96.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.5%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY RU pass interference (Young, Avery) 15 yards to the RU27, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
96.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 8 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
96.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 19 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+43
96.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 28 yds to the INDIANA 43 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, personal foul (Juwan Burgess) to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 16
OPP 34
-2
96.8%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Paul Woods for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 18
OPP 36
-3
96.8%
Johnny Langan sacked by Cam Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7INT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
RUTGDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
IUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 17 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 14:37
4TH & 11
OWN 4
+8
97.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 56 yds , Whop Philyor returns for 8 yds to the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11FUMBLE1 play · 6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
97.5%
Sampson James run for 6 yds to the Ind 48 Sampson James fumbled, forced by Olakunle Fatukasi, recovered by Rutgr Damon Hayes , return for 6 yds to the Ind 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-1
97.1%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Bo Melton for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 2:2697% → 98%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
97.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 6 yds to the Ind 9Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+4
97.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+3
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 3 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+8
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 8 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
97.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
IUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
RUTGDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 36 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
97.6%
Johnny Langan run for 32 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (Bo Melton) to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 94 yds · 0:3498% → 98%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+54
98.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 54 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
98.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 31 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
98.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
98.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the Rutgr 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0598% → 100%
Q3 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
IUDrive 21TD17 plays · 98 yds · 7:07100% → 100%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+4
99.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 4 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+7
99.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 7 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+18
99.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 18 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
99.8%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (Simon Stepaniak) to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+15
99.8%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Philyor, Whop, PENALTY RU pass interference (Avery, Tre) 15 yards to the RU3, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
99.8%
Johnny Langan sacked by Reakwon Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds , Whop Philyor returns for no gain to the Ind 26 INDIANA Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the Ind 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Miles Marshall for 4 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Damon HayesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
99.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25DOWNS16 plays · 50 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Gary Cooper for 2 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:55
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)
+1.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:22
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 54 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST down
+0.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:38
Stevie Scott III run for 26 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST down
+0.6