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IU

Indiana 31 at Michigan State 40

MSU
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:13 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+23.3Home team on offense+4.5Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:52: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 12 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +21.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:12: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +20.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 3:33: Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:00: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +43.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +28.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 1 at IU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:51MSU 4th & 10 at IU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:51IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:59IU 4th & 1 at IU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:50MSU 4th & 1 at IU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.8%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46IU 4th & 4 at IU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:13MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:25IU 4th & 5 at IU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:23IU 4th & 8 at MSU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:17MSU 4th & 3 at IU 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−3.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16IU 4th & 14 at IU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−6.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:08IU 4th & 2 at IU 35, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:33MSU 4th & 6 at IU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−13.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:04MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:35IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:55MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:07IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:33MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:52IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:12MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:00IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:0982% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.4%
Elijah Collins run for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 25 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
82.4%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+12
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 12 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
82.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 4 yds to the Ind 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
82.4%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
82.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
81.6%
Matt Coghlin 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
81.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
81.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
81.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1181% → 83%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
81.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
81.3%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
81.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
50
+30
81.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 30 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
81.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Ind 19Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+15
81.6%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Gillison, Trenton, PENALTY IND pass interference 15 yards to the IND4, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.6%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
82.1%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 6 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-5
81.9%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
82.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 8 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
81.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
82.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 3 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
82.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-7
82.0%
Sampson James run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
82.7%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
82.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 7 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
82.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Anthony Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-1
82.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0418% → 23%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
81.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 19 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
81.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+16
81.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 16 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
80.7%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
80.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stevie Scott III, broken up by Josh ButlerSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+28
77.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 28 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4079% → 83%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.9%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
78.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
78.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 20 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+35
79.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 35 yds to the Ind 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
79.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Ind 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
79.9%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Ind 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+12
79.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the Ind 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Tiawan MullenSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Tiawan MullenSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
82.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
81.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
81.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 4 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
81.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
81.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
81.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
82.5%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
82.5%
Laress Nelson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
82.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt Dotson, broken up by Bryant FitzgeraldSimilar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
82.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to C.J. Hayes, broken up by Tiawan MullenSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
81.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3818% → 32%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
81.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
81.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
81.2%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
81.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+10
80.7%
Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to Hale, Donavan for 7 yards to the IND48 (Butler, Josh), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU49, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
80.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 16 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
79.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 28 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
78.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
78.6%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY IND holding 10 yards to the MSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+7
79.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 7 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
79.6%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY MSU pass interference 5 yards to the MSU2, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.7%
Sampson James run for no gain to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.7%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
74.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
73.8%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+9
73.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
75.3%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
74.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
73.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+10
72.6%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 60 yds , Whop Philyor returns for 10 yds to the Ind 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4830% → 29%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
70.2%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+3
70.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 3 yds to the Ind 14Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+4
70.7%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ind 18Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
71.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:4674% → 84%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
74.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 9 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
74.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
74.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
74.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 16 yds to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
84.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 81 yds · 6:3219% → 23%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
80.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+9
80.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
80.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+13
79.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 13 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
79.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
78.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 25 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
77.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 5 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+8
77.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 8 yds to the MchSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
77.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 3 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
77.0%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
78.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for no gain to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
76.6%
Logan Justus 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
78.3%
Elijah Collins run for 19 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
79.8%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
50
+4
80.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
79.7%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
78.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:3622% → 51%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
77.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 12 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 3 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
76.5%
Whop Philyor run for 6 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+6
75.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
74.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 18 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
73.0%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+12
74.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 12 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
72.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to David Ellis for 7 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
72.9%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
74.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
72.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 1 yd to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
70.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Josh ButlerSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
49.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 12 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Matt SeybertSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
54.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr., broken up by Tiawan MullenSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 56 yds , Whop Philyor returns for 2 yds to the Ind 27 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Ind 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0048% → 43%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
52.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 13Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
52.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-6
54.1%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Raequan Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 7Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 14
OWN 7
+22
56.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 46 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 22 yds to the Ind 29 INDIANA Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:3062% → 82%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
61.6%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 16 yds to the Ind 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
81.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
75.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
74.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
74.6%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the Ind 35Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
76.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 6:2577% → 94%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.9%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
77.2%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
76.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to C.J. Hayes for 7 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
77.4%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
78.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
79.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
78.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+10
77.2%
Lewerke, Brian sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MSU45 (Ziemba, Michael), fumble by Lewerke, Brian recovered by IND Nofoagatoto'a, Sio at MSU45, PENALTY IND holding 10 yards to the IND44, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.2%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
79.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 14 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
81.5%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
81.5%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
80.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
93.6%
Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 1:2710% → 61%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
90.0%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Hale, Donavan, PENALTY MSU pass interference 15 yards to the IND37, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
88.5%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
87.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+12
88.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
86.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 19 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
82.7%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY MSU roughing passer 11 yards to the MSU11, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:5557% → 94%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
56.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 44 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
68.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 30 yds to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
69.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 4Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
68.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Ind 3Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
95.4%
Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
94.1%
INDIANA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -25 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 6 yds lat. to Nick Westbrook for a loss of 5 yards lat. to Michael Penix Jr. for a loss of 18 yards for a TD Michael Penix Jr. fumbled, recovered by MchSt Michael Dowell for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:00
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)
-43.6
FG · Q4 0:05
Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOOD
+28.7
TD · Q4 14:52
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 12 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)
-21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com