2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:42 · Drue Chrisman punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:28: Justin Fields run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:26: Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 37 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:30: Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:07: Donavan Hale pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 49 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +2.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:15: Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 13:31IU 4th & 14 at IU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.6%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q1 11:46OSU 4th & 6 at IU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.4%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call84.4%83% to makePunt84.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:24IU 4th & 13 at IU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%average punt
- Q1 3:45IU 4th & 6 at OSU 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snapGo for it17.4%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call17.4%87% to makePunt16.0%−1.4average punt
- Q1 0:40OSU 4th & 7 at IU 44, up 4Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it80.3%37% to convertField goal79.9%−0.527% to makePuntTheir call80.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 13:50IU 4th & 2 at IU 26, down 4Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it20.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:15IU 4th & 15 at IU 18, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q2 6:02IU 4th & 11 at IU 46, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snapGo for it11.0%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%average punt
- Q3 8:28IU 4th & 7 at IU 46, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 3:05IU 4th & 2 at OSU 48, down 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:58IU 4th & 14 at IU 26, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 10:42OSU 4th & 6 at IU 42, up 41Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%40% to convertField goal99.6%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:50IU 4th & 12 at IU 33, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:07IU 4th & 13 at OSU 28, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.120% to convertField goal0.2%60% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:58OSU 4th & 22 at OSU 28, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 7:28OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.2%97% to makeGo for two83.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:26OSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:30OSU Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:09OSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:07IU Touchdown, down 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.7%97% to makeGo for two6.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:15OSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:58OSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00OSU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2116% → 17%
Q1 13:31
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+25
16.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 yds, downed at the INDIANA 44 INDIANA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Ind 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2MISSED FG7 plays · 26 yds · 1:2183% → 83%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
16.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 10 yds to the Ind 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0318% → 18%
OSUDrive 4TD9 plays · 68 yds · 2:4182% → 83%
IUDrive 5FG10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2518% → 21%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
18.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+14
18.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
50
+12
19.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 12 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
19.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 3 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+4
19.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 4 yds to the OhSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 2:4979% → 78%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
20.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 14 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+10
21.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 10 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
21.7%
Drue Chrisman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Whop Philyor at the Ind 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4122% → 22%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
21.7%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Arnette, Damon) 10 yards to the INDIANA18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
22.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
21.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD7 plays · 63 yds · 2:1978% → 83%
IUDrive 9SF5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5718% → 17%
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
18.4%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4183% → 91%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
16.7%
Justin Fields sacked by Allen Stallings IV for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+20
16.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 20 yds to the Ind 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
9.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 2:1912% → 12%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+28
11.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 28 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-1
12.7%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 47 Peyton Ramsey fumbled, recovered by Ind Hunter LittlejohnSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
12.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12TD7 plays · 58 yds · 1:3491% → 92%
IUDrive 13TD9 plays · 78 yds · 2:5411% → 12%
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
12.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 9 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-5
13.6%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 30Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+21
11.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 21 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+49
11.8%
Donavan Hale pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 49 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF5 plays · 26 yds · 0:4992% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3391% → 97%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
8.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
50
+13
8.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 13 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
7.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 21 yds to the Ind 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
3.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 3:254% → 3%
OSUDrive 17TD11 plays · 97 yds · 3:1597% → 99%
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+10
2.9%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jamar Johnson) to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
2.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 31Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
1.8%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jaylin Williams) to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18INT TD16 plays · 68 yds · 4:462% → 0%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
1.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 19 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
1.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 18 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-3
0.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cole Gest for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 24Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+15
0.4%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Hale, Donavan, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Brown, Cameron) 15 yards to the OHIOST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
0.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 1 yd to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-6
0.2%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Tyler Friday for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 26Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
0.3%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the Ind 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
0.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Miles Marshall for 10 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-6
0.1%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Zach Harrison for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+3
0.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 3 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-3
0.3%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Jaelen Gill for a loss of 3 yards Jaelen Gill fumbled, recovered by IndSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23DOWNS4 plays · -3 yds · 1:010% → 0%
OSUDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
0.2%
Gunnar Hoak pass complete to Cameron Brown for 9 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-8
0.2%
Jerron Cage run for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 35 Jerron Cage fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-7
0.2%
Gunnar Hoak sacked by Demarcus Elliott for a loss of 7 yards to the OhSt 28Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 22
OWN 28
+54
0.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 54 yds , Whop Philyor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 7 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:30
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q2 11:26
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 37 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q3 12:15
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-4.4