2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadEIU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreEIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:10 · Robert Columbus run for 5 yds to the EIlln 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:05: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — EIU win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:28: Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:34: Cole Gest run for 3 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:44: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 8 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:19: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 43 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) — IU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6EIU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 11:05EIU 4th & 16 at EIU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 4:28EIU 4th & 17 at EIU 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 1:34EIU 4th & 7 at EIU 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 15:00IU 4th & 11 at IU 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q2 14:16EIU 4th & 2 at EIU 34, down 21Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:50IU 4th & 9 at IU 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q2 7:55EIU 4th & 13 at IU 43, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.121% to convertField goal1.9%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 1:30EIU 4th & 5 at EIU 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00EIU 4th & 2 at EIU 46, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00EIU 4th & 5 at IU 41, down 35Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%42% to convertField goal0.3%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:19EIU 4th & 7 at EIU 28, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 5:51IU 4th & 2 at EIU 30, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%57% to convertField goal99.7%−0.156% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 2:36EIU 4th & 6 at EIU 38, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:28EIU 4th & 1 at EIU 34, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:54IU 4th & 9 at EIU 30, up 49Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%56% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:54EIU 4th & 10 at EIU 25, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:33IU 4th & 1 at EIU 44, up 52Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.327% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:32EIU 4th & 5 at EIU 14, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 8:21IU 4th & 3 at EIU 3, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%44% to convertField goal99.9%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:05IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:28IU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:34IU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:44IU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:07IU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:19IU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:28IU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5599% → 98%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+18
98.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 18 yds to the EIlln 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-9
98.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 6 yds to the EIlln 22 INDIANA Penalty, illegal block (Stevie Scott III) to the EIlln 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+15
98.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 15 yds to the EIlln 22Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
98.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 8 yds to the EIlln 10Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+10
98.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
IUDrive 3TD11 plays · 68 yds · 4:1898% → 98%
Q1 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+5
98.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+36
98.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 36 yds to the EIlln 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
98.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 12 yds to the EIlln 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+8
97.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 8 yds to the EIlln 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
IUDrive 5TD2 plays · 32 yds · 0:2998% → 99%
EIUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1099% → 98%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+3
98.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Cole Gest for 3 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 41
+44
98.3%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Darshon McCullough at the INDIANA 10 INDIANA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the EIlln 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
IUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 11:50
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EIlln 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 10PUNT12 plays · 27 yds · 3:072% → 2%
IUDrive 11TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:4199% → 100%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
98.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 23 yds to the EIlln 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
98.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 16 yds to the EIlln 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 8 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:140% → 0%
IUDrive 13TD1 play · 64 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
99.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 64 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 14END OF HALF3 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
EIUDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
IUDrive 16TD7 plays · 96 yds · 3:07100% → 100%
Q3 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+10
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 10 yds to the Ind 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+12
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 12 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
99.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 27 yds to the EIlln 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 43 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
IUDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Turon Ivy Jr. for 6 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Stevie Scott III, broken up by Grant EdwardsSimilar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Miles Marshall for 7 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.9%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY EIU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Mark) 15 yards to the EIU38, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Turon Ivy Jr. for 4 yds to the EIlln 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
IUDrive 20TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Turon Ivy Jr. for 14 yds to the EIlln 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Donavan Hale for 9 yds to the EIlln 32Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+12
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 12 yds to the EIlln 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to David Ellis for 14 yds to the EIlln 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 21DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
IUDrive 22FG5 plays · 1 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 12:39
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Matt Bjorson, broken up by Charlie BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Christiaan Masucci punt for 28 yds, fair catch by David Ellis at the Ind 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:33
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Darshon McCullough at the EIlln 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 13
-5
100.0%
EASTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the EIlln 8Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+6
100.0%
Harry Woodbery pass complete to Kirk Pinkston Jr. for 6 yds to the EIlln 14Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+9
100.0%
Christiaan Masucci punt for 36 yds , David Ellis returns for 9 yds to the EIlln 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26DOWNS12 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
100.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Sampson James for 11 yds to the EIlln 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
100.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Josh Sanguinetti for a loss of 3 yards to the EIlln 23Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+10
100.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Sampson James for 10 yds to the EIlln 13Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
100.0%
Tuttle, Jack pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY EIU offside 4 yards to the EIU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
100.0%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to David Ellis, broken up by Brandon GuidoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EIUDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:44
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 8 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 1:34
Cole Gest run for 3 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 11:05
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 10 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)
-0.3