Try the model
IU

Indiana 34 at Ball State 24

BALL
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+3.3BALL 15.0%Ryan Rimmler 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:30 · Ryan Rimmler 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior−37.3Home team on offense+0.7Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:53: Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) BALL ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declined — IU win probability +5.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:34: Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 45 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +9.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:47: Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Ellis pass to Peyton Hendershot for Two-Point Conversion) — IU win probability +11.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:28: Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 36 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +17.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:15: Logan Justus 50 yd FG GOOD — IU win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:44IU 4th & 7 at BALL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:30BALL 4th & 5 at IU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:35BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:21BALL 4th & 4 at IU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:12IU 4th & 7 at BALL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:12BALL 4th & 6 at IU 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:28IU 4th & 6 at IU 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:03BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:02IU 4th & 4 at IU 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:59BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:51BALL 4th & 8 at IU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:51IU 4th & 5 at IU 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:15IU 4th & 8 at BALL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:39BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:41IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:58BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:53IU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:34BALL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:47IU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:28BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
9.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
9.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Caleb Huntley for 5 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-2
9.5%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
9.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:2990% → 89%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
10.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
10.2%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+18
10.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 18 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
10.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 8 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
10.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
50
+17
10.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 17 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
10.1%
Cole Gest run for 3 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
10.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
10.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
11.5%
Logan Justus 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:1412% → 15%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
11.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
11.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 16 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
11.7%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to MILLER, Riley, PENALTY IND pass interference (Ball, Marcelino) 15 yards to the IND41, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
11.8%
Walter Fletcher run for 1 yd to the Ind 40Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
11.7%
Justin Hall run for 4 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+16
11.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 16 yds to the Ind 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
11.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+5
11.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
11.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the Ind 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
11.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the Ind 7Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
11.8%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
11.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
15.0%
Ryan Rimmler 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:4285% → 87%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
14.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+75
12.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 75 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
12.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
12.7%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
12.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
12.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Whop Philyor at the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0287% → 87%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
12.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+5
12.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 5 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Amechi Uzodinma II return for no gain to the Ind 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:3115% → 19%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
14.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
14.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
15.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 28 yds to the Ind 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
15.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the Ind 1Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
17.2%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+19
17.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 19 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
16.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+16
16.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 16 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
16.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
16.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Antonio Phillips return for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
19.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 11 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
20.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+6
20.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
20.7%
Justin Hall run for 9 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
21.1%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
21.0%
Markice Hurt Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+15
19.8%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to TYLER, Yo'Heinz, PENALTY IND pass interference (Matthews, Devon) 15 yards to the IND37, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
21.2%
Walter Fletcher run for 6 yds to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
21.7%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-2
21.1%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 31Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
20.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 3:2179% → 79%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
20.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
21.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
20.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 4 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
19.8%
BALL ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 5
OWN 49
+11
19.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 11 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
19.5%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 14 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
19.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ronnie Walker Jr.Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
19.1%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Hale, Donavan, PENALTY BALL offside defense (PHILLIPS, A.) 5 yards to the BALL21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+6
19.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 6 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
19.0%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
19.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+5
19.6%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY BALL offside defense (HALL, Shannon) 5 yards to the BALL12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
19.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
20.9%
Logan Justus 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
21.1%
Drew Plitt run for 12 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
22.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
23.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 6 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
23.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+6
22.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
23.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
22.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Whop Philyor at the Ind 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 1:1078% → 85%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
21.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 9 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
21.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+5
22.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the Ind 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
21.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 13 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
20.3%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 9 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+18
20.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 18 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
19.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
19.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
19.9%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Westbrook, Nick, PENALTY BALL offside defense (COSBY, Bryce) 5 yards to the BALL31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+49
15.3%
Logan Justus 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:5483% → 89%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
17.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 7 yds to the Ind 44Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+22
16.6%
Whop Philyor run for 22 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
16.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Nick Westbrook for 12 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
16.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 11 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
16.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
16.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
10.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Justus KICK) BALL ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1913% → 24%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
13.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
13.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+10
13.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 10 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
14.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 2 yds to the Ind 46Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+8
14.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 8 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
14.4%
Drew Plitt sacked by Jamar Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+45
23.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 45 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
18.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stevie Scott IIISimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
19.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop Philyor, broken up by Nic JonesSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
21.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
22.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Marcelino Ball) to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
23.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
24.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
22.5%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Cam JonesSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+11
21.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 42 yds , Whop Philyor returns for 11 yds to the Ind 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
20.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
20.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop Philyor, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+15
21.4%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 15 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
18.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Cole GestSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
19.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 3 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+3
18.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ronnie Walker Jr. for 3 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
19.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 43 yds, downed at the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
22.6%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 9Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
22.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
22.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
23.1%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
22.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
21.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
21.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Whop Philyor at the Ind 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:2081% → 94%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
19.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
19.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Nick WestbrookSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+16
19.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Donavan Hale for 16 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
18.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+17
18.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 17 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
17.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 22 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
17.8%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Ellis pass to Peyton Hendershot for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:569% → 10%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.3%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
9.4%
Drew Plitt sacked by James Miller and Jerome Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+30
8.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
50
+5
10.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 5 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+18
11.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, personal foul (Marcelino Ball) to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
11.7%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
11.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Caleb Huntley for 2 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
10.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
10.2%
Ryan Rimmler 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.8%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
5.8%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
6.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for no gain to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 10:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.3%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 63 yds , Justin Hall returns for no gain to the BalSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
9 plays · 93 yds · 2:256% → 24%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
5.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+9
5.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Nolan Givan for 9 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
5.8%
Walter Fletcher run for no gain to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+19
5.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 19 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
6.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
6.7%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
6.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 13 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
23.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 36 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:0584% → 94%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
15.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 24 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
13.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
13.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 10 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
12.9%
Sampson James run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-2
12.9%
Michael Penix Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+4
13.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+50
6.2%
Logan Justus 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24INT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:367% → 6%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
6.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Will Jones for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
6.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
6.7%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to DAVIS, Antwan, dropped pass, PENALTY IND offside defense (Johnson, Jerome) 5 yards to the BALL41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
7.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Andre Brown Jr.Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-9
6.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Jerome Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+16
4.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 16 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
5.5%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Jaylin Williams return for 29 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0396% → 96%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-2
3.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+13
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Crumb) to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:28
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 36 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q4 13:47
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD, (David Ellis pass to Peyton Hendershot for Two-Point Conversion)
-11.9
TD · Q3 8:34
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 45 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com