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NU

Northwestern 29 at Illinois 10

ILL
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:44 · Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense−0.2Pregame prior+12.9Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:44: Dre Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +3.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:20: Andrew Marty run for 12 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +11.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:03: Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 34 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +14.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:28: Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander PAT MISSED) — NU win probability +16.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:28: Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the 50 yard line — ILL win probability +7.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:24NU 4th & 4 at NU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:03ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:05NU 4th & 10 at ILL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:05ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 4 at ILL 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:44NU 4th & 2 at ILL 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:20ILL 4th & 26 at ILL 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−3.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:34NU 4th & 2 at ILL 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.4%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23NU 4th & 5 at ILL 35, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%−0.7
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:32ILL 4th & 12 at NU 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:03ILL 4th & 4 at NU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−2.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:30ILL 4th & 13 at NU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−1.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:07NU 4th & 13 at ILL 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−5.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:07ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:10NU 4th & 5 at ILL 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09NU 4th & 8 at ILL 24, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 13:44ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:20NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:03NU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:28NU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:09NU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:3632% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
67.8%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
67.8%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
67.8%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+5
67.8%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 5 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
67.8%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
67.3%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for no gain to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+5
67.4%
Andrew Marty run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
67.3%
Andrew David punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.2%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
67.2%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
67.0%
Matt Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+21
66.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 40 , Riley Lees returns for 21 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 6:4533% → 36%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
66.7%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
66.6%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+12
66.6%
Drake Anderson run for 12 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
66.5%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
66.5%
Coco Azema run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+5
66.5%
Andrew Marty run for 5 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
66.3%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
66.3%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+9
66.4%
Andrew Marty run for 9 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
66.3%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Illin 18 Drake Anderson fumbled, forced by Stanley Green, recovered by Nwest Sam GerakSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+3
66.4%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
66.5%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Trey PughSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
64.4%
Charlie Kuhbander 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
64.1%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
63.9%
Matt Robinson run for 6 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
63.5%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+13
63.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds , Berkeley Holman returns for 13 yds to the Illin 40 ILLINOIS Penalty, ball on NU40, PENALTY personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Illin 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3237% → 38%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
62.6%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
62.7%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+8
63.4%
Andrew Marty run for 8 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+29
62.5%
Andrew Marty pass intercepted Nate Hobbs return for 29 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:0265% → 69%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
64.8%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Donny Navarro, broken up by Trent GoensSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+29
64.7%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Caleb Reams for 29 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
65.3%
Matt Robinson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 6Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
68.9%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:2433% → 46%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.9%
Andrew Marty run for 7 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
66.0%
Drake Anderson run for 10 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
65.7%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
65.5%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
65.5%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 8 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
65.2%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+6
65.0%
Coco Azema run for 6 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
64.6%
Coco Azema run for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
64.4%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
65.0%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
64.4%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+1
64.4%
Jace James run for 1 yd to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+4
65.1%
Raymond Niro III run for 4 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+2
65.8%
Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
54.2%
Andrew Marty run for 12 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0059% → 56%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.5%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-17
57.7%
Matt Robinson sacked by Paddy Fisher for a loss of 17 yards to the Illin 19 ILLINOIS Penalty, intentional grounding (Matt Robinson) to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 26
OWN 19
+4
56.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds , Berkeley Holman returns for 4 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:1145% → 46%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
55.4%
Andrew Marty run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+1
56.0%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
56.8%
Raymond Niro III run for 8 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+9
56.6%
Andrew Marty run for 9 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
54.9%
Marty, Andrew pass incomplete to Lees, Riley, PENALTY NU ineligible downfield on pass (Slater, Rashawn) 5 yards to the ILL45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
55.5%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Malik Washington, broken up by Delano WareSimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+7
55.9%
Andrew Marty run for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+3
52.6%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
54.5%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Jace JamesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.5%
Dre Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11MISSED FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:2858% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
57.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-6
59.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+13
55.4%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Caleb Reams for 13 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
59.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+20
58.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 20 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
60.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+11
60.5%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
61.8%
Matt Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
61.5%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
58.5%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+49
53.6%
James McCourt 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2947% → 65%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
53.3%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+16
52.5%
Coco Azema run for 16 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
50.9%
Andrew Marty run for 7 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+8
50.5%
Coco Azema run for 8 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.8%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
35.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 34 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13FG
15 plays · 40 yds · 5:3337% → 38%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+9
36.2%
Matt Robinson run for 9 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
37.1%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
37.6%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
37.5%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Caleb Reams for 7 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
38.3%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
39.3%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Caleb Reams for 4 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
39.0%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+15
37.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 15 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.1%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
41.0%
Matt Robinson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-6
39.2%
Matt Robinson sacked by Joe Gaziano for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
38.0%
James McCourt 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 4:0265% → 88%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
35.5%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 3 yds to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
35.7%
Drake Anderson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+62
34.6%
Coco Azema run for 62 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
31.2%
Andrew Marty run for 2 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
28.4%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
29.3%
Marty, Andrew pass intercepted by Green,Stanley at the ILL0, Green,Stanley return to the ILL0, touchback, PENALTY ILL personal foul (Shogbonyo,Ayo) 5 yards to the ILL5, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
28.4%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.2%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
22.1%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 1
50
-8
23.5%
Matt Robinson sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
20.9%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
20.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 6:0887% → 94%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
13.4%
Azema, Coco rush for 5 yards to the NU20 (Gay,Isaiah), PENALTY NU holding (Pugh, Trey) 7 yards to the NU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+4
13.3%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+7
13.2%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+54
13.8%
Raymond Niro III run for 39 yds to the ILLINOIS 42 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Sydney Brown) to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
11.4%
Andrew Marty run for 7 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+5
11.4%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
11.4%
Andrew Marty run for 3 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
11.4%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-11
11.6%
James, Jace rush for loss of 3 yards to the ILL15 (Green,Stanley), PENALTY NU holding (Pugh, Trey) 11 yards to the ILL23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 18
OPP 23
+5
12.2%
Raymond Niro III run for 5 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+36
6.5%
Charlie Kuhbander 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
7.7%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
8.1%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
7.6%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Caleb Reams for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
7.9%
Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 36 Isaiah Williams fumbled, forced by Trent Goens, recovered by Nwest Bryce JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:0195% → 99%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
5.4%
Andrew Marty run for no gain to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
5.5%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+4
4.7%
Andrew Marty run for 4 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+5
4.8%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
4.2%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
4.2%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+1
2.8%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+24
0.6%
Coco Azema run for 24 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.7%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
0.7%
Isaiah Williams run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
0.7%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
0.7%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 25 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.8%
Isaiah Williams pass intercepted, touchback. A.J. Hampton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:28
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander PAT MISSED)
-16.2
TD · Q3 8:03
Andrew Marty pass complete to Riley Lees for 34 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q2 5:20
Andrew Marty run for 12 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com