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ILL

Illinois 10 at Iowa 19

IOWA
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+2.6IOWA 87.1%Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 16 · Q4 14:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:08 · Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+10.0Home team on offense+15.0Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:26: Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 31 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +2.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Keith Duncan 45 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +3.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:08: Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +2.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:52: James McCourt 28 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +8.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:46: Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Illin 38 — IOWA win probability +12.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 11ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 6 at ILL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10IOWA 4th & 15 at ILL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:01IOWA 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:34IOWA 4th & 5 at ILL 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:34ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:38ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:26IOWA 4th & 12 at ILL 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16ILL 4th & 6 at IOWA 37, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:01IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:57ILL 4th & 14 at IOWA 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:08IOWA 4th & 1 at ILL 6, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−2.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−10.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:52ILL 4th & 4 at IOWA 10, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−9.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:52IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 25, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−2.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:44IOWA 4th & 5 at ILL 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:44ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:42IOWA 4th & 5 at ILL 21, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:16IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:26ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4486% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
86.4%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
86.4%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 18 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
86.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 22 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
86.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-2
86.4%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-2
86.4%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+29
86.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 29 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds for a TD ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
85.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
85.8%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted Michael Ojemudia return for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0086% → 86%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
86.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 23 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nate WietingSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
86.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
86.0%
IOWA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
85.9%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+43
85.6%
Keith Duncan 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4414% → 17%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
85.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 11 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
85.3%
Brandon Peters run for 7 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+15
85.2%
Brandon Peters run for 15 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
83.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 31 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 25Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 54 yds, downed at the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
83.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+3
83.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
83.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+16
83.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 44 , Max Cooper returns for 16 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
83.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 4
50
0
83.5%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 4
50
0
83.4%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 4
50
0
83.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro at the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3418% → 19%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
82.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh Imatorbhebhe, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+8
82.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 8 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+6
82.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 6 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
81.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
81.5%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-15
81.4%
[SG], Peters,Brandon pass complete to Barker,Daniel for 8 yards to the ILL49 (Colbert,Djimon), PENALTY ILL pass interference (Navarro,Donny) 15 yards to the ILL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 23
OWN 26
+6
82.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 6 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+3
81.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
81.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Max Cooper at the Iowa 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:4381% → 81%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+40
81.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 40 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
82.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 10 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
82.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 2 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
82.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
82.2%
Nate Stanley run for 4 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
82.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
82.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
82.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 3 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
80.9%
Keith Duncan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.5%
Dre Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
79.7%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
80.1%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.0%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
80.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
80.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro ILLINOIS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 10
OWN 37
-5
81.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
81.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
80.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 10 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
81.5%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
50
0
81.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 8
50
+14
80.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 14 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
81.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+8
82.1%
Nate Stanley pass intercepted Sydney Brown return for 8 yds to the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
79.1%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
79.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dre BrownSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
79.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
80.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Geno Stone at the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:3281% → 78%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
80.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 29 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
81.3%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
81.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
80.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
77.8%
Keith Duncan 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 20 yds · 2:1022% → 22%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
78.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Caleb Reams for 5 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
77.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 6 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
76.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
76.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Ra'Von Bonner for 6 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
76.1%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
75.6%
[SG], Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Williams,J., PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Welch,Kristian) 4 yards to the IOWA41, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
75.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 4 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
75.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 6
OPP 37
-14
78.3%
Brandon Peters sacked by Geno Stone for a loss of 14 yards to the Illin 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15FG
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:1281% → 85%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
80.5%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 22 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
85.3%
Keith Duncan 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:0020% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
80.5%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+6
79.3%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
79.6%
Brandon Peters run for 37 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
77.4%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
77.4%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted, touchback. Matt Hankins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
82.1%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+23
81.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 23 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
83.5%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico Ragaini, broken up by Nate HobbsSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
81.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro at the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18MISSED FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 6:4520% → 21%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
80.0%
[SG], Corbin,Reggie rush right for 1 yard to the ILL14 (Belton, Dane), PENALTY ILL holding (Cerny,Jake) 6 yards to the ILL7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+10
80.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 10 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+4
80.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+6
80.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
79.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+10
79.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 10 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
78.6%
[SG], Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Washington,C., PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Hankins,Matt) 15 yards to the IOWA46, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
77.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 4 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
77.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Iowa 41Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+12
77.6%
Brandon Peters run for 12 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
75.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 13
OPP 32
-4
77.1%
Dre Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+3
79.6%
Brandon Peters run for 3 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
79.3%
James McCourt 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:4981% → 87%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
81.1%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
82.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 6 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
82.8%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+40
82.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 40 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
83.5%
[SG], Stanley,Nate pass complete to Goodson, Tyler for 3 yards to the ILL12 (Carney,Owen), PENALTY IOWA illegal formation 5 yards to the ILL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
83.5%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+10
83.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 10 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
84.5%
Nate Stanley run for 4 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
87.1%
Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1613% → 25%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dele Harding, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
86.8%
Dre Brown run for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
85.5%
Brandon Peters run for 7 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+19
85.0%
Dre Brown run for 19 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
83.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 19 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
82.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
82.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 4 yds to the Iowa 10Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
84.1%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Justice WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
75.3%
James McCourt 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
86.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 5 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+1
86.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
85.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 3 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+2
84.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 40 yds , Donny Navarro returns for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0022% → 24%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
78.0%
Brandon Peters run for 6 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
76.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Griffin Palmer for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
76.2%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Illin 47 Brandon Peters fumbled, forced by Kristian Welch, recovered by Iowa Jack KoernerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:0289% → 93%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
88.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+8
89.0%
Nate Stanley run for 8 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
89.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
89.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
88.4%
Nate Stanley run for 6 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
89.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
89.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
92.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
93.1%
Keith Duncan 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
Brandon Peters run for 1 yd to the Illin 26 Brandon Peters fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by Illin Brandon PetersSimilar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
93.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Caleb Reams, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1695% → 96%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
95.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-1
95.9%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 22Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+1
96.4%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 21
0
95.9%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nate Wieting, broken up by Khalan TolsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
96.7%
Matt Robinson sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+14
96.8%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Caleb Reams for 14 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
96.5%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
96.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (Alex Palczewski) to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
96.8%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-6
96.5%
Matt Robinson sacked by Kristian Welch for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:46
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the Illin 38
+12.7
FG · Q4 10:52
James McCourt 28 yd FG GOOD
-8.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Keith Duncan 45 yd FG GOOD
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com