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ILL

Illinois 37 at Michigan State 34

MSU
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+16MSU 89.0%Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 34 · Q4 3:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:17 · Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+2.6Home team on offense+17.9Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:48: Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 83 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +5.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:06: Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +12.0 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:53: Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Sydney Brown return for 76 yds for a TD (James McCourt PAT MISSED) — ILL win probability +20.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:17: Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:05: Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +74.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ILL made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:10ILL 4th & 6 at MSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:33ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:04MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:41ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:06MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:08ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:08ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 18, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:59MSU 4th & 5 at ILL 5, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:59ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:56MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:00ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:05MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:31ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:11MSU 4th & 1 at ILL 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.0%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:11MSU 4th & 7 at ILL 43, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:42MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:17MSU 4th & 3 at ILL 28, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−3.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−21.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:57ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 10:07MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:39MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:41MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:24MSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:48ILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:06ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:53ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:05ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
88.2%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
88.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+11
88.2%
Brandon Peters run for 11 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
88.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:3188% → 87%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.8%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-2
87.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+18
87.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 18 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
87.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
50
+22
87.9%
Elijah Collins run for 22 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
87.9%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+18
87.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 18 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
87.9%
Cody White run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
87.9%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
87.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:5713% → 14%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
87.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
87.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dre Brown for 4 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+33
87.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 33 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
87.2%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
87.3%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
86.2%
James McCourt 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3186% → 88%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
86.3%
Elijah Collins run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
86.5%
Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+21
86.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 21 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
87.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 42 yds for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Illin 18 ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Illin 13 (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+5
87.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
87.0%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
87.0%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
87.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
87.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, downed at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
87.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 1 yd to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
87.4%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
87.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
87.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 45 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for no gain to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
87.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
86.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
87.0%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
87.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:1287% → 91%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+9
87.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
87.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-6
87.3%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 31 Elijah Collins fumbled, recovered by MchSt Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+11
86.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
86.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
87.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+19
87.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Laress Nelson for 19 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
87.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 5 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+14
87.2%
Lewerke, Brian pass incomplete to Nelson, Laress, PENALTY ILL pass interference 14 yards to the ILL18, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
90.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 18 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:1091% → 88%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
90.9%
Julian Barnett run for 9 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+6
90.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.5%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
85.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-15
86.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 18
OWN 24
+5
85.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
85.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
88.6%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Nate HobbsSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+8
88.1%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 8 yds to the MchSt 33 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
87.5%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 33 yds , Nolan Bernat returns for no gain to the Illin 30 Nolan Bernat fumbled, recovered by Illin Jordan HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:0211% → 12%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
88.9%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
88.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 2 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
89.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 12 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
88.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro, broken up by Josiah ScottSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-6
88.3%
Brandon Peters sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
88.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14INT
9 plays · 73 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
87.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 13 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
87.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
87.7%
Brandon Wright run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+16
87.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 16 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
89.2%
Brandon Wright run for 1 yd to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
89.1%
Brandon Wright run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+31
88.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 31 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
89.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
87.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted, touchback. Stanley Green return for no gain MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:269% → 11%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
90.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
90.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-10
90.3%
Corbin,Reggie rush for 41 yards to the MSU30 (Thompson, Tyriq;Scott, Josiah), PENALTY ILL holding 10 yards to the ILL19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-1
90.0%
Brandon Peters sacked by Noah Harvey and Kenny Willekes for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 18Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+1
89.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 43 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 1 yd to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0094% → 95%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress Nelson, broken up by Stanley GreenSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
94.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Julian Barnett for 19 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.7%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Sydney Brown return for no gain to the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 0:3211% → 10%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
89.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 16 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
88.9%
Brandon Peters run for 7 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
91.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
90.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 46 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0192% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
92.3%
Elijah Collins run for 26 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
92.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+27
92.4%
Elijah Collins run for 27 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
92.4%
Brian Lewerke run for 9 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
92.4%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.4%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.4%
Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
92.1%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 5Similar
Q3 10:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
96.8%
Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.4%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
96.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
96.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
96.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.2%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Sydney BrownSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+10
96.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 10 yds to the Illin 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
96.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 9 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
96.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
96.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
96.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dre Brown ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cody White at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
97.0%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 16Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+14
96.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Seybert for 14 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
97.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
97.1%
Lewerke, Brian rush for 1 yard to the MSU39 (DeGroot,Dawson), PENALTY ILL offside defense 5 yards to the MSU43, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+43
96.8%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 33 yds, downed at the MICHIGANST 24 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
97.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 3 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+1
97.2%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 18Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
97.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Jordan Holmes, broken up by Raequan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+11
97.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 11 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
97.3%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
97.3%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 4
50
+3
97.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
97.0%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.3%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
97.3%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
97.2%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
96.9%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Holmes at the Illin 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 1:022% → 7%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
98.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 6 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
98.3%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+83
93.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 83 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
94.9%
Lewerke, Brian pass complete to White, Cody for 38 yards to the ILL36, PENALTY MSU pass interference 13 yards to the MSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 23
OWN 13
+4
94.8%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+3
94.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+4
94.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+17
94.1%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 46 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 17 yds to the Illin 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:088% → 20%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
92.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Caleb Reams for 17 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
92.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
92.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 12 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
91.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+23
91.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 23 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28FUMBLE
2 plays · -17 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
88.0%
Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 8 Team fumbled, recovered by Illin Khalan TolsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
79.7%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-8
79.7%
Brandon Peters run for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
82.2%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 10 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 30INT TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:4388% → 69%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
88.1%
Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
88.2%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+8
88.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
88.5%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+24
88.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 24 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
90.2%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
89.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+76
69.1%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Sydney Brown return for 76 yds for a TD (James McCourt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 31FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:3667% → 89%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
67.1%
Elijah Collins run for 40 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
73.5%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+1
73.5%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+1
74.5%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
89.0%
Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 32TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 3:1215% → 95%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Caleb Reams for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
83.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
80.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
81.9%
Brandon Peters sacked by Noah Harvey for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
85.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Caleb ReamsSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 17
OWN 44
+37
89.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 37 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
81.2%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+12
81.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dre Brown for 12 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
81.1%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.6%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh Imatorbhebhe, broken up by Noah HarveySimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
84.6%
Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Reams,Caleb, PENALTY MSU pass interference 2 yards to the MSU2, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
79.4%
Dre Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
4.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:05
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
-74.7
TD · Q4 4:53
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted for a TD Sydney Brown return for 76 yds for a TD (James McCourt PAT MISSED)
-20.4
FG · Q4 3:17
Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG GOOD
+16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com