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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:25 · Adam Korsak punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Holmes at the Illin 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:25: Johnny Langan pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 31 yds for a TD, (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q2 0:15: Justin Davidovicz 25 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +6.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:08: Dre Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +10.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:29: Nate Hobbs 36 Yd Fumble Return (James McCourt Kick) — ILL win probability +7.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:30: Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 52 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snapGo for it88.6%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.6%average punt
- Q1 13:49RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 16, tiedClose callPunted · 11.8% before the snapGo for it11.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:38RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 7Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:28ILL 4th & 7 at RUTG 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.7%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call86.8%83% to makePunt85.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 12:25ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snapGo for it82.3%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%average punt
- Q2 10:25RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 49, down 3Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.0%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:29ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snapGo for it80.3%−1.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.5%average punt
- Q2 0:15RUTG 4th & 1 at ILL 7, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it23.3%70% to convertField goalTheir call22.6%−0.791% to makePunt18.0%−5.2average punt
- Q3 15:00RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.8%average punt
- Q3 13:23ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snapGo for it74.3%−1.431% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%average punt
- Q3 11:50RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 13, tiedClose callPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it26.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:30RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 14:03RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 22, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:53ILL 4th & 4 at RUTG 49, up 28Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:07RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:38ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:25RUTG Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.7%97% to makeGo for two16.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:08ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:29ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:30ILL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:09ILL Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartILLDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
RUTGDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD8 plays · 78 yds · 3:0289% → 89%
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+48
88.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 48 yds to the Rutgr 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 8:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
88.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 44 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 7 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG12 plays · 56 yds · 4:1489% → 88%
Q1 6:42
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+4
88.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 4 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+29
88.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 14 yds to the ILLINOIS 43 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, personal foul (Christian Izien) to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
89.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for no gain to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
89.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh Imatorbhebhe, broken up by Avery YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0312% → 16%
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
88.2%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 20 yds Mohamed Jabbie fumbled, forced by Stanley Green, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+31
83.9%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 31 yds for a TD, (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
RUTGDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
ILLDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
82.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 9 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+7
82.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dre Brown for 7 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-6
82.9%
Brandon Peters sacked by Julius Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+5
82.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds , Avery Young returns for 5 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10FG11 plays · 66 yds · 4:4418% → 26%
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+14
80.0%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Bo Melton for 14 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+8
76.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 44 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 8 yds to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-15
77.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Josh Imatorbhebhe) to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+3
75.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 55 yds , Avery Young returns for 3 yds to the Rutgr 38 RUTGERS Penalty, illegal block (3 Yards) to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
76.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro, broken up by Mike TverdovSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 11:50
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+3
75.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD2 plays · 56 yds · 0:4377% → 87%
RUTGDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3916% → 9%
RUTGDrive 17FUMBLE7 plays · 30 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q3 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
91.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
90.6%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
50
+3
90.0%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 3 yds to the Illin 45 Kay'Ron Adams fumbled, forced by Dele Harding, recovered by Illin Stanley GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1894% → 98%
Q3 3:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+52
98.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 52 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19INT TD9 plays · 23 yds · 4:212% → 0%
RUTGDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:03
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+15
99.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 48 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 15 yds to the Illin 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
ILLDrive 23Uncategorized4 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:08
Dre Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q3 7:29
Nate Hobbs 36 Yd Fumble Return (James McCourt Kick)
+7.5
FG · Q2 0:15
Justin Davidovicz 25 yd FG GOOD
-6.2