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WIS

Wisconsin 23 at Illinois 24

ILL
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameFG-2.2ILL 11.9%Collin Larsh 20 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 14 · Q4 9:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:46 · Collin Larsh 20 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior−13.9Home team on offense−21.9Garbage-time factor−8.8Score differential−9.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:53: Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 48 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +3.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 10:31: Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +4.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:48: Reggie Corbin run for 43 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +13.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 5:53: Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 29 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +32.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: James McCourt 39 Yd Field Goal — ILL win probability +65.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:34ILL 4th & 18 at WIS 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:26WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13ILL 4th & 3 at WIS 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:02WIS 4th & 6 at ILL 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:20WIS 4th & 7 at ILL 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:47WIS 4th & 9 at ILL 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:12ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:08WIS 4th & 3 at ILL 48, up 6
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:01ILL 4th & 21 at ILL 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:39WIS 4th & 8 at ILL 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:46WIS 4th & 2 at ILL 2, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.4%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−10.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:11ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 6 at WIS 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−38.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−51.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:15WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:53ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:31WIS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:48ILL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:53ILL Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3097% → 96%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
3.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 16 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
3.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
3.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+10
3.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
3.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 14 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
3.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
3.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+9
3.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 9 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
4.1%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
4.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
4.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 18 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:364% → 5%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.1%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+25
4.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 25 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
4.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 14 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
4.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+4
4.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
4.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 11
OPP 42
-7
4.5%
Brandon Peters sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
4.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, downed at the Wisc 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0896% → 95%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
4.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the Wisc 2Similar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+3
4.6%
John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+5
4.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 10
-6
5.0%
Jack Coan sacked by Oluwole Betiku Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 4Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 9
OWN 4
+5
5.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 41 yds , Jordan Holmes returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:565% → 5%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
5.3%
Dre Brown run for 11 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
5.5%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
5.6%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
5.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
5.4%
James McCourt 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 6:0495% → 94%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
5.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+6
5.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 6 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
5.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
5.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+28
5.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 28 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
5.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+22
5.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 22 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
5.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
6.4%
Collin Larsh 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:306% → 6%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
6.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
6.1%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+9
6.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
6.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
6.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0594% → 93%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
6.5%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
6.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 8 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
6.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 18 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
6.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
7.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+2
6.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 7
OPP 31
-6
7.0%
Jack Coan sacked by Jake Hansen for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 37 Jack Coan fumbled, recovered by Illin Dele Harding , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:027% → 12%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
7.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+13
7.5%
Brandon Peters run for 13 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
7.9%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
11.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 48 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:3390% → 91%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
10.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
10.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 5 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+19
10.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 19 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
10.5%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
10.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
10.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
10.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
10.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
10.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jonathan TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
9.1%
Collin Larsh 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:2110% → 11%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.2%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
10.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
10.2%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
9.8%
Peters, Brandon pass incomplete, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference 15 yards to the ILLINOIS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
10.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-9
10.7%
Brandon Peters sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 28 Brandon Peters fumbled, recovered by Illin Alex Palczewski , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+15
9.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dre Brown for 15 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+21
10.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds , Danny Davis III returns for 21 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
10.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4312% → 11%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
11.9%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
11.5%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
11.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds , Danny Davis III returns for 12 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4790% → 88%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
10.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
10.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 5
50
+2
10.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 2 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
11.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5713% → 13%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
12.7%
Corbin, Reggie rush for no gain to the ILLINOIS5, PENALTY WISCONSIN face mask 15 yards to the ILLINOIS20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
13.4%
Jakari Norwood run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-12
13.3%
Brandon Peters sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 12 yards to the Illin 11 ILLINOIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+9
13.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 13 yds Josh Imatorbhebhe fumbled, recovered by Wisc Eric Burrell , return for 9 yds to the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2089% → 94%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
11.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:189% → 8%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.6%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+14
8.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Roughing Passer (14 Yards) to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
8.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
8.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-11
8.4%
Brandon Peters sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 21
OWN 23
0
8.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 6:1893% → 93%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
7.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 10 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
7.3%
Danny Davis III run for 13 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
6.7%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
6.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 5
50
+14
6.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 14 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
6.1%
A.J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+7
6.0%
Nakia Watson run for 7 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
6.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-10
6.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 19
OPP 30
-4
5.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 23
OPP 34
+15
6.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 15 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
6.8%
Collin Larsh 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:469% → 23%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.1%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
8.8%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+5
8.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+19
9.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 19 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.9%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
9.6%
Brandon Peters run for 11 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
22.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 43 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:5384% → 88%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
15.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 12 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
15.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
15.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 15 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
14.5%
Garrett Groshek run for 3 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
14.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+35
14.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 35 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
14.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.3%
John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
14.0%
John Chenal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
11.9%
Collin Larsh 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2812% → 12%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
11.6%
Dre Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
12.4%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
12.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
13.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
11.7%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:4791% → 92%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
9.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 13 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
8.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 7 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+6
8.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds to the Illin 25 Jonathan Taylor fumbled, recovered by Illin Isaiah Gay , return for 6 yds to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1312% → 48%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
11.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 18 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
12.9%
Dre Brown run for 22 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
15.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
47.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 29 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1170% → 79%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
28.0%
Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
26.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 8 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
21.9%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
23.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 6 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
21.0%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Tony Adams return for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 32 yds · 2:0243% → 94%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.6%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
42.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
40.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
40.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+13
36.9%
Dre Brown run for 13 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
47.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
47.5%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+1
38.8%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Wisc 21Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
94.1%
James McCourt 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
James McCourt 39 Yd Field Goal
+65.2
TD · Q4 5:53
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 29 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+32.3
TD · Q3 0:48
Reggie Corbin run for 43 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com