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MICH

Michigan 42 at Illinois 25

ILL
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:57 · Will Hart punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior−26.5Home team on offense−27.8Score differential−13.6Garbage-time factor−6.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:19: Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +3.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:30: Matt Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +7.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:50: Dre Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Brown Run For Two-point Conversion) — ILL win probability +22.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 8:57: Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:21: Shea Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +7.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:22ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13MICH 4th & 16 at ILL 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:23ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:08ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:59ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 26, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:37MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14ILL 4th & 16 at MICH 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:57MICH 4th & 14 at ILL 49, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:50ILL 4th & 1 at MICH 7, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−2.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−7.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:55MICH 4th & 2 at ILL 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−2.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−17.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:14MICH 4th & 2 at ILL 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−1.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−7.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:17ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:20MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:59MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:19MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:33MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:55ILL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:30ILL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:50ILL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:57MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:21MICH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:305% → 6%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.3%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.6%
Matt Robinson run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
5.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, downed at the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:5494% → 94%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
5.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 16 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
5.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 11 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
6.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
6.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+29
6.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 29 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:216% → 6%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
6.1%
Isaiah Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 22Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
6.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 8 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
6.4%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Dominic StampleySimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
6.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 52 yds, downed at the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:2994% → 93%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
6.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 18 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
6.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 16 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
6.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
6.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 10 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
6.7%
Tru Wilson run for 14 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
6.8%
Tru Wilson run for 9 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+1
6.9%
Tru Wilson run for 1 yd to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-16
7.0%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ben Mason) to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
7.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ben MasonSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 26
0
7.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
+5
7.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+5
7.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 5 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
7.5%
Quinn Nordin 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:108% → 8%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
7.6%
Dre Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
7.7%
Dre Brown run for 15 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
8.0%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the Illin 46Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
8.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
8.5%
Donny Navarro run for 6 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-5
8.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Vederian Lowe) to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-16
8.5%
Matt Robinson sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 16 yards to the ILLINOIS 43 ILLINOIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Illin 43Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 25
OWN 43
+5
8.2%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Justice Williams for 5 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
8.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4692% → 93%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
8.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
8.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+28
8.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 28 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
6.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 25 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 3:217% → 8%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
7.2%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+13
7.2%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 13 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
7.5%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
7.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+15
7.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
7.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 48 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 17
OWN 38
+7
7.6%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Donny Navarro for 7 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-6
7.8%
Matt Robinson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 16
OWN 39
0
7.5%
Matt Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
7.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Jordan Glasgow for a 1ST down blocked by Jordan Glasgow for a 1ST down for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:115% → 5%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
5.1%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
5.1%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
5.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 70 yds, downed at the Mich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:2295% → 96%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
4.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 5 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+9
4.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 9 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
4.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
4.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
50
+10
4.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 10 yds to the Illin 40 Zach Charbonnet fumbled, recovered by Illin Stanley GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:125% → 5%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
5.3%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+5
5.3%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
5.5%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
5.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:2795% → 95%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.7%
Tru Wilson run for no gain to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+71
4.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 71 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
4.3%
Tru Wilson run for 6 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
4.3%
Tru Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 4Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:214% → 4%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
4.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-3
6.7%
Isaiah Williams sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
3.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 12
OWN 24
+3
3.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 54 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for 3 yds to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5595% → 95%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
4.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
5.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
4.8%
Will Hart punt for 41 yds, downed at the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:535% → 6%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
4.5%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 18 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
4.9%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 4 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
4.1%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
3.1%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Carlo Kemp) to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
3.2%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
5.9%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 23 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4796% → 96%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
3.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
3.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1396% → 95%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
4.1%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 21 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Mich Shea PattersonSimilar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
4.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
4.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tarik BlackSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
4.6%
Will Hart punt for 43 yds, downed at the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18FG
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:165% → 6%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
5.3%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 4 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+14
5.4%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 14 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
5.7%
Matt Robinson run for 7 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
5.9%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+9
5.8%
Matt Robinson run for 9 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
5.9%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
5.8%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-10
5.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
5.1%
Matt Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+50
6.3%
James McCourt 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:0895% → 95%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
5.0%
Tru Wilson run for 5 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
4.7%
Tru Wilson run for 1 yd to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
4.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
4.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
4.6%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
4.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
4.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
5.0%
Will Hart punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20TD
19 plays · 80 yds · 7:206% → 14%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
6.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Donny Navarro for 9 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
6.3%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
6.2%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+12
6.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 12 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
6.7%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
6.7%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+35
6.5%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 35 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
7.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+2
7.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 9
0
7.1%
Matt Robinson run for no gain to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
7.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Donny Navarro for 2 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
6.9%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 2 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
7.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
7.0%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 1 yd to the Mich 3Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
5.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for no gain to the Mich 1Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.7%
Matt Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3190% → 90%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.4%
Tru Wilson run for 5 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
10.5%
Tru Wilson run for 6 yds to the Mich 36 Tru Wilson fumbled, recovered by IllinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:5513% → 36%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
12.7%
Dominic Stampley run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+20
13.4%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Casey Washington for 20 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
13.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+19
13.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 19 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+1
13.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.8%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Brown Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:3675% → 92%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
24.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tarik Black for 12 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
23.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+25
22.3%
Shea Patterson run for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
21.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 18 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
20.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
19.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+6
20.3%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+4
21.4%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
18.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
7.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
9.5%
Matt Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 20 Matt Robinson fumbled, recovered by Mich Jordan GlasgowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2692% → 93%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
7.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
7.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
8.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
7.5%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:3910% → 9%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
10.1%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Dominic Stampley for 1 yd to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-12
8.9%
Matt Robinson sacked by Trente Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the Illin 1 Matt Robinson fumbled, recovered by Mich Carlo Kemp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.3%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:563% → 2%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
3.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
2.9%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
2.8%
Matt Robinson sacked by Josh Uche for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
2.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29END OF GAME
7 plays · 44 yds · 4:3199% → 99%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
1.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+24
1.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 24 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
1.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+3
0.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+14
0.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 14 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 12
OPP 13
-3
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:50
Dre Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (D. Brown Run For Two-point Conversion)
+22.1
TD · Q4 8:57
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q4 6:21
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Quinn Nordin KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com