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ILL

Illinois 17 at Minnesota 40

MINN
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+0.7MINN 80.6%Michael Lantz 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 3 · Q1 0:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:52 · Michael Lantz 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+28.9Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Shannon Brooks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MINN win probability +5.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:13: James McCourt 46 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:53: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +6.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:52: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +7.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:48: Rodney Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +4.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00ILL 4th & 8 at MINN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:25ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:52MINN 4th & 5 at ILL 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:52MINN 4th & 7 at ILL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−3.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 7 at MINN 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:23ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:50MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40ILL 4th & 3 at MINN 25, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13ILL 4th & 4 at MINN 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:53ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 19, down 13
    Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:52ILL 4th & 10 at MINN 44, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:34MINN 4th & 1 at ILL 9, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−1.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−7.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:48ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:51MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 39, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:44ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 41, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:51MINN 4th & 4 at ILL 9, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:58ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:23MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:32MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:53MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:52MINN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:48MINN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
86.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
86.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+11
86.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 11 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
86.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
86.0%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
86.0%
Brandon Peters run for 3 yds to the Minn 40 Brandon Peters fumbled, forced by Kamal Martin, recovered by Illin Richie PetitbonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
-5
86.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
86.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
85.3%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+6
85.3%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
85.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
85.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
85.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+5
85.2%
Jacob Herbers punt for 45 yds , Kyron Cumby returns for 5 yds to the Illin 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
84.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
84.6%
Dre Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
84.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
84.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4INT TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:5684% → 82%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
84.1%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+11
84.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the Minn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.2%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 28Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+40
81.7%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted for a TD Dele Harding return for 40 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:0682% → 81%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.7%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 32Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
81.7%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
81.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
82.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
81.4%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.2%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
81.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
81.0%
Jacob Herbers punt for 39 yds, downed at the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
79.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh Imatorbhebhe, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+4
79.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+13
80.0%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted Austin Winfield return for 13 yds to the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2780% → 81%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
80.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-1
80.3%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
79.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+28
80.6%
Michael Lantz 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5220% → 21%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
79.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Kyron Cumby for no gain to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
79.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+13
79.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 13 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
78.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+4
78.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 4 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
78.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
79.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 33 yds, downed at the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 2:0279% → 83%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
78.6%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+64
78.9%
Rodney Smith run for 64 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
80.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
82.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.3%
Brandon Peters run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
80.7%
Matt Robinson run for 4 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
81.0%
Robinson,Matt pass incomplete to Smalling,Ricky, dropped pass, PENALTY ILL ineligible downfield on pass (Kramer,Doug) 5 yards to the ILL31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 15
OWN 31
-3
81.3%
Matt Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 28 Matt Robinson fumbled, recovered by Illin Matt RobinsonSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+11
81.5%
Matt Robinson run for 11 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
81.0%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Benjamin St-JusteSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
81.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, downed at the Minn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
80.5%
Rodney Smith run for 16 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
80.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
80.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
80.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
79.6%
Jacob Herbers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kyron Cumby at the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:4020% → 21%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
80.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+10
79.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 10 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
78.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 21 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
78.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 5 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
78.0%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
78.6%
Matt Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
78.7%
James McCourt 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:0880% → 87%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
79.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 20 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.1%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
80.6%
Rodney Smith run for 18 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
81.5%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+12
82.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
87.1%
Shannon Brooks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 1:1915% → 19%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.7%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.4%
Matt Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
84.9%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 10 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
84.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Donny Navarro for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
50
+16
83.2%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Donny Navarro for 16 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
82.1%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Donny Navarro, broken up by Coney DurrSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
82.2%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Trevon Sidney, broken up by Braelen OliverSimilar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
83.2%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Donny Navarro for 6 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
80.8%
James McCourt 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0782% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
82.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 59 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
84.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+4
84.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rodney Smith for 4 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
90.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
88.4%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
88.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
88.6%
Matt Robinson run for 4 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
88.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5990% → 97%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
89.8%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+20
90.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 20 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+21
90.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 21 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
90.3%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
97.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
96.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+12
96.8%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 12 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Ricky Smalling, broken up by Benjamin St-JusteSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
96.6%
Robinson,Matt pass incomplete to Sidney,Trevon, PENALTY MINN pass interference (Williamson, C) 10 yards to the ILL45, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
96.6%
Matt Robinson sacked by Micah Dew-Treadway and Winston DeLattiboudere for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+10
96.8%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
50
+6
96.6%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 6 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside (Tai'yon Devers) to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 5
OPP 39
0
96.4%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
96.4%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-5
96.6%
Matt Robinson sacked by Braelen Oliver for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
96.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0497% → 93%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
97.4%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+6
97.4%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.4%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
92.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Jake Hansen for a loss of 8 yards Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Illin Milo Eifler , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3992% → 99%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.2%
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
92.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+40
92.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 25 yds to the MINNESOTA 33 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Jake Hansen) to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
93.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
94.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+3
94.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+1
95.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 1 yd to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.4%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Trevon SidneySimilar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.7%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Trevon SidneySimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, downed at the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
99.5%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
99.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 3
OWN 44
-5
99.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+51
99.4%
Jacob Herbers punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINNESOTA 20 ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khalan Tolson) to the Illin 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.0%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+11
99.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 11 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
98.9%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Trevon Sidney for 4 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
98.9%
Matt Robinson sacked by Chris Williamson for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+2
99.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Justice Williams for 2 yds Justice Williams fumbled, forced by Kamal Martin, recovered by Illin Justice WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+8
99.0%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Justice Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Ricky SmallingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25FG
15 plays · 32 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.7%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+8
99.7%
Seth Green run for 8 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
99.7%
Seth Green run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
99.6%
Bryce Williams run for no gain to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-4
99.8%
Seth Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+15
99.8%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Autman-Bell, C, PENALTY ILL pass interference (Witherspoon,D.) 15 yards to the ILL15, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
99.8%
Bryce Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Seth Green run for 4 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Seth Green run for 3 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 4
OPP 9
-5
99.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+5
99.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive offside (Calvin Avery) to the Illin 9Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
99.8%
Michael Lantz 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Luke Ford for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Kyron CumbySimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
99.6%
Matt Robinson pass complete to Jordan Holmes for 10 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Dalevon CampbellSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Matt Robinson pass incomplete to Kyron Cumby, broken up by Tyler NubinSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.6%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:52
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)
+7
TD · Q3 12:53
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds for a TD, (Michael Lantz KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 1:32
Shannon Brooks run for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com