2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:32 · Gavin Baechle 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:41: T.J. Vasher 13 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Trey Wolff Kick) — TTU win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:56: Josh Fields run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20 — UTEP win probability +0.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:35: Dalton Rigdon 49 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Trey Wolff Kick) — TTU win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 11:26: Trey Wolff 45 yd FG GOOD — TTU win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:45: Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 30 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 13 of 13
- Q1 15:00UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 11:14UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 8:15TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q1 6:44UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q1 4:13TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q2 10:41UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q2 3:56UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 0:56UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 15:00TTU 4th & 3 at UTEP 37, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%53% to convertField goal98.1%−0.440% to makePunt98.1%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:26TTU 4th & 6 at UTEP 28, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%60% to makePunt97.9%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:08UTEP 4th & 8 at TTU 30, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call1.4%56% to makePunt1.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:08TTU 4th & 8 at TTU 32, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.4%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%average punt
- Q3 5:58UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 21, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q3 0:48UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 19, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:53UTEP 4th & 1 at TTU 18, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−0.179% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:32UTEP 4th & 21 at TTU 27, down 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.18% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%62% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:32TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 43, up 35Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:37UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 12, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:14TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:41TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:35TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:45TTU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:51TTU Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.3%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-4
98.3%
Brandon Jones sacked by Broderick Washington Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
98.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD9 plays · 50 yds · 2:1798% → 98%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
50
+12
98.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 12 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+10
98.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Donta Thompson for 10 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
98.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 2 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
98.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 7 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 7 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 3 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 41 yds , Adrian Frye returns for no gain to the TexTc 20 Adrian Frye fumbled, recovered by TexTc Adrian FryeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
97.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Armand Shyne for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-5
97.7%
Alan Bowman sacked by Denzel Chukwukelu for a loss of 5 yards to the TexTc 13 Alan Bowman fumbled, recovered by TexTc Alan Bowman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+5
97.7%
Austin McNamara punt for 55 yds , Justin Garrett returns for 5 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 4:13
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the UTEP 21Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 5 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+8
97.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 8 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for no gain to the TexTc 33Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
97.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Donta Thompson for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma, broken up by Duron LoweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:403% → 3%
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-11
96.9%
JONES, Brandon pass complete to DAWN JR, Walter for 4 yards to the UTEP26 (Frye, Adrian), PENALTY UTEP personal foul (HENRY, Zuri) 11 yards to the UTEP11, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:3097% → 97%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 3 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+4
96.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to R.J. Turner for 4 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
96.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Donta Thompson for 7 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+17
96.6%
Alan Bowman pass complte to Dalton Rigdon for 17 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
96.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 13 yds to the UTEP 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
96.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 13 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
96.9%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Jess Trussell for 13 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
96.9%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon Wolf, broken up by Ja'Marcus IngramSimilar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
96.9%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the TexTc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10INT11 plays · 52 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
96.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to R.J. Turner for 11 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+8
96.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to McLane Mannix for 8 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 4
50
+5
96.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Myller Royals for 5 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
97.0%
Alan Bowman pass intercepted Ykili Ross return for no gain to the UTEP 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD2 plays · 56 yds · 0:3097% → 99%
UTEPDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q2 0:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14END OF HALF7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.7%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete to Ezukanma, Erik, PENALTY UTEP offside (CHUKWUKELU, D.) 5 yards to the TTU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+9
98.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 9 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
98.7%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete to Carter, KeSean, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (ROSS, Ykili) 15 yards to the UTEP40, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 15FG14 plays · 44 yds · 3:3499% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
98.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 7 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
98.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 8 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.7%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma, broken up by Josh CaldwellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
98.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to R.J. Turner for 6 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+5
98.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 5 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16MISSED FG12 plays · 45 yds · 4:181% → 1%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
98.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 1 yd to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
98.5%
LOCKSLEY, Kai pass incomplete to GARRETT, Justin, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Bowman, Alan) 15 yards to the TTU32, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:58
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
98.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the TexTc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 19TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
99.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 39Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+10
99.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to McLane Mannix for 10 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
50
0
99.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Erik Ezukanma, broken up by Josh CaldwellSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 30 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-10
99.9%
LOCKSLEY, Kai pass complete to COWING, Jacob for 43 yards to the TTU31, PENALTY UTEP holding (LEE, Darta) 10 yards to the UTEP16, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 21TD7 plays · 59 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 16 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to R.J. Turner for 9 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 2 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+15
99.9%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete to Carter, KeSean, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (CALDWELL, Josh) 15 yards to the UTEP7, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22FG15 plays · 48 yds · 7:190% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
100.0%
LOCKSLEY, Kai pass intercepted by McPhearson, Z. at the UTEP33, McPhearson, Z. return to the UTEP0, clock 12:12, PENALTY TTU offside (Taylor, Dadrion) 5 yards to the UTEP42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
99.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 25 yds to the TexTc 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-7
99.9%
Kai Locksley sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. and Brayden Stringer for a loss of 7 yards to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-14
100.0%
Kai Locksley sacked by Thomas Leggett for a loss of 14 yards to the TexTc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TTUDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
100.0%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Caden Leggett for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:35
Dalton Rigdon 49 Yd pass from Alan Bowman (Trey Wolff Kick)
+2.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:56
Josh Fields run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20
-0.7
TD · Q3 2:45
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 30 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+0.7