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MTST

Montana State 10 at Texas Tech 45

TTU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadMTST aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreMTST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:16 · Casey Bauman run for no gain to the TexTc 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+24.4Home team on offense+23.8Score differential+16.2Garbage-time factor+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:04: SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:42: Casey Bauman pass complete to Coy Steel for 31 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — MTST win probability +2.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:13: Armand Shyne run for 69 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:50: SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:13: Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 45 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK) — TTU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MTST made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00MTST 4th & 2 at MTST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26MTST 4th & 3 at MTST 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:04MTST 4th & 6 at MTST 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:53TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MTST 4th & 13 at MTST 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:34MTST 4th & 4 at MTST 26, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:13MTST 4th & 7 at MTST 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:14TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:50MTST 4th & 9 at MTST 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:01TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:28MTST 4th & 7 at MTST 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:56TTU 4th & 10 at MTST 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:16MTST 4th & 1 at TTU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:10TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:08MTST 4th & 2 at MTST 36, down 24
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:37TTU 4th & 5 at MTST 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:14MTST 4th & 5 at TTU 29, down 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:48MTST 4th & 9 at TTU 20, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:23MTST 4th & 1 at MTST 34, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:08TTU 4th & 10 at TTU 24, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:26TTU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:42MTST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:13TTU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:50TTU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:13TTU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:23TTU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.2%
Casey Bauman run for 4 yds to the MntSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
96.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 5 yds to the MntSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
96.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
96.2%
Jered Padmos punt for 42 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 4 yds to the TexTc 37 TEXAS TECH Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the TexTc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:2496% → 96%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
95.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the TexTc 17Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+12
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 12 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 6 yds to the TexTc 35Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 11 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 1 yd to the TexTc 47Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+14
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Donta Thompson for 14 yds to the MntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 18 yds to the MntSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
95.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the MntSt 16Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+9
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 9 yds to the MntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
95.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the MntSt 5Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.7%
Alan Bowman pass complete to McLane Mannix for 5 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.5%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Kevin Kassis for 4 yds to the MntSt 39Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
95.5%
Casey Bauman run for 2 yds to the MntSt 41Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
95.5%
Casey Bauman run for 1 yd to the MntSt 42Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+7
95.5%
Jered Padmos punt for 44 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 7 yds to the TexTc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:0995% → 96%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
95.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 18 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
95.4%
Armand Shyne run for 3 yds to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+10
95.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Armand Shyne for 10 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
95.4%
Armand Shyne run for 2 yds to the MntSt 46Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
95.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Travis Koontz for 6 yds to the MntSt 40Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+4
95.4%
Armand Shyne run for 4 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
95.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 13 yds to the MntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete Alan Bowman fumbled,Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
95.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 12 yds to the MntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
95.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 10 yds to the MntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the MntSt 25Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.7%
Tucker Rovig pass complete to Lance McCutcheon for 5 yds to the MntSt 30Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
95.6%
Tucker Rovig pass complete to Lance McCutcheon for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 29Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
95.7%
Jered Padmos punt for 50 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 10 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
95.7%
McLane Mannix run for 7 yds to the TexTc 38Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
95.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 7 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
95.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
95.7%
Austin McNamara punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:555% → 5%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
95.4%
Logan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 11Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 11
OWN 11
-2
95.4%
Isaiah Ifanse run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 9
0
95.5%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Lance McCutcheon, broken up by Zech McPhearsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
95.5%
Jered Padmos punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 64 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.7%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.6%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 9 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
95.7%
Bowman, Alan pass incomplete, PENALTY MSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
50
+5
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the MntSt 45Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+9
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 9 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
95.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 35 yds Xavier White fumbled, recovered by MntSt Jahque AlleyneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:525% → 7%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Troy AndersenSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
95.3%
Logan Jones run for 6 yds to the MntSt 26Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
95.3%
Casey Bauman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
95.3%
Callahan O'Reilly run for 7 yds to the MntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.2%
Troy Andersen run for no gain to the MntSt 33Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
95.2%
Casey Bauman sacked by Evan Rambo for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 32Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+35
95.2%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Kevin Kassis for 35 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
94.7%
Karl Tucker II run for 2 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+31
92.7%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Coy Steel for 31 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2993% → 96%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 6 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
95.5%
Armand Shyne run for 69 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Troy AndersenSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
Demareus Hosey run for 3 yds to the MntSt 28Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.1%
Casey Bauman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.2%
Jered Padmos punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexTc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
95.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
95.1%
Armand Shyne run for 6 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-3
95.1%
Alan Bowman sacked by Bryce Sterk for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 20Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
94.9%
Austin McNamara punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
94.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 11 yds to the MntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
94.8%
Isaiah Ifanse run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 41Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
94.9%
Casey Bauman run for 2 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
94.9%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Willie PattersonSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
95.0%
Jered Padmos punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
95.0%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 10 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
95.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 12 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
95.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the TexTc 44Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
95.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 42Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
95.0%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
94.8%
Austin McNamara punt for 57 yds, downed at the MntSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:505% → 5%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
94.9%
Casey Bauman run for 1 yd to the MntSt 2Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
94.9%
Casey Bauman run for 2 yds to the MntSt 4Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
95.0%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Kevin KassisSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
95.0%
Jered Padmos punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Adrian Frye at the MntSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:2795% → 98%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
95.4%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 23 yds to the MntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
95.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 5 yds to the MntSt 18Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
95.5%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the MntSt 15Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
95.3%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 5 yds to the MntSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
95.5%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 7 yds to the MntSt 3Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the MntSt 15Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
97.6%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the MntSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 5:0498% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 5 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 6 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.0%
Dalton Rigdon run for 7 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
98.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Erik Ezukanma for 5 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
98.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 15 yds to the MntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
98.1%
Armand Shyne run for 6 yds to the MntSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
98.1%
Alan Bowman run for 2 yds to the MntSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+3
98.0%
Alan Bowman run for 3 yds to the MntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
98.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Travis Koontz for 13 yds to the MntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
98.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 6 yds to the MntSt 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-5
98.1%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Madison Akamnonu) to the MntSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
98.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 4 yds to the MntSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-5
98.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (Travis Bruffy) to the MntSt 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
98.0%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
98.2%
Trey Wolff 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:402% → 2%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Casey Bauman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+40
98.2%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 40 yds to the TexTc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
97.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
97.8%
Tyrel Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
98.0%
Casey Bauman run for 1 yd to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
98.2%
Casey Bauman run for no gain to the TexTc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
98.5%
Armand Shyne run for 6 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-3
98.5%
Armand Shyne run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 29Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. VasherSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Austin McNamara punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Logan Jones at the MntSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
98.4%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Coy Steel for 7 yds to the MntSt 35Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
98.4%
Casey Bauman run for 1 yd to the MntSt 36Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
98.4%
Casey Bauman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
98.4%
Jered Padmos punt for 63 yds, downed at the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.8%
Armand Shyne run for no gain to the TexTc 1Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+24
98.8%
Armand Shyne run for 24 yds to the TexTc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.8%
Alan Bowman pass complete to McLane Mannix for 30 yds to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.9%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the MntSt 41Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
98.9%
Donta Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 42Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
98.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to McLane Mannix for 2 yds to the MntSt 40Similar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
98.8%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to McLane Mannix, broken up by Level Price Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 23MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 6 yds to the MntSt 46Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+20
98.9%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Willie Patterson for 20 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
98.8%
Willie Patterson run for 8 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-10
98.7%
ANDERSEN, Troy rush for 10 yards to the TTU16 (Brooks, Jordyn), PENALTY MSU holding (66) 10 yards to the TTU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+3
98.9%
Troy Andersen pass complete to Logan Jones for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+4
99.0%
Troy Andersen pass complete to Derryk Snell for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
99.1%
Tristan Bailey 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 1:0199% → 100%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.2%
SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
99.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Donta Thompson for 8 yds to the TexTc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.3%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 14 yds to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Dalton Rigdon, broken up by Brayden KonkolSimilar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 45 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 25FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Kevin Kassis for 5 yds to the MntSt 30Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Kevin Kassis, broken up by Adam BeckSimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
99.9%
Casey Bauman pass complete to Coy Steel for 18 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+31
99.9%
Kevin Kassis pass complete to Willie Patterson for 31 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Kevin Kassis, broken up by Ja'Marcus IngramSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.9%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 1 yd to the TexTc 20Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
99.9%
Casey Bauman pass incomplete to Willie PattersonSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
99.9%
Tristan Bailey 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 5:25100% → 100%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to SaRodorick Thompson for 4 yds to the TexTc 23Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the TexTc 26Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 10 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 5 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Armand Shyne run for 8 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to McLane Mannix for 4 yds to the MntSt 43Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
McLane Mannix run for 7 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to KeSean Carter for 9 yds to the MntSt 27Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the MntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Xavier White for 16 yds to the MntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the MntSt 5Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to T.J. Vasher, broken up by Tyrel ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Alan Bowman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the MntSt 28Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 4 yds to the MntSt 32Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 2 yds to the MntSt 34Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jered Padmos punt for 55 yds, downed at the TexTc 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
100.0%
Jax Welch run for 13 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Xavier WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
100.0%
Jax Welch run for 5 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-5
100.0%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 24Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Austin McNamara punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Willie Patterson at the MntSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
100.0%
Jaharie Martin run for 4 yds to the MntSt 26Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-2
100.0%
Demareus Hosey run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 24Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+6
100.0%
Shane Perry run for 6 yds to the MntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:50
SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 9:13
Armand Shyne run for 69 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 9:42
Casey Bauman pass complete to Coy Steel for 31 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)
-2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com