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LT

Louisiana Tech 14 at Texas 45

TEX
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:45 · Bailey Hale 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Pregame prior+37.1Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:40: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +0.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:20: Collin Johnson 6 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:26: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 28 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:06: Brennan Eagles 25 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick) — TEX win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:54: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +1.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 7LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:45LT 4th & 7 at TEX 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:53TEX 4th & 3 at LT 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:02LT 4th & 18 at LT 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:59LT 4th & 13 at TEX 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:36TEX 4th & 2 at TEX 32, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:56TEX 4th & 4 at LT 25, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:38LT 4th & 3 at LT 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03TEX 4th & 11 at LT 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:01LT 4th & 1 at TEX 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:51TEX 4th & 1 at LT 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.5%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:14LT 4th & 5 at TEX 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:46TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 22, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:00LT 4th & 4 at TEX 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:37TEX 4th & 3 at LT 46, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:40TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:20TEX Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:26TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:06TEX Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:44TEX Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:31LT Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:54LT Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:09TEX Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:0591% → 90%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
90.5%
Devin Duvernay run for 2 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (L'Jarius Sneed) to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
90.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 19 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
90.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-1
90.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+8
90.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 8 yds to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
90.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 6 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 4:4910% → 11%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
90.2%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
90.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 8 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
90.0%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+18
89.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 18 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
89.6%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+11
89.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 11 yds to the Texas 33Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
89.5%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
89.3%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+6
89.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 6 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
89.4%
Bailey Hale 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:3790% → 89%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
89.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
89.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+9
89.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 9 yds to the Texas 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
89.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the Texas 49Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
89.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 4 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
89.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
89.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 3 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
89.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Malcolm EppsSimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+15
89.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 15 yds Collin Johnson fumbled, forced by Connor Taylor, recovered by LaTch Connor TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:5111% → 11%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.1%
Smith, J'Mar pass incomplete to Powell, Cee Jay, PENALTY LATECH holding (Allen, Willie) 10 yards to the LATECH15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
89.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 9 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
88.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+26
89.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
50
0
88.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
50
-2
88.4%
Jaqwis Dancy run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 48Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-6
88.3%
J'Mar Smith sacked by DeMarvion Overshown for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 18
OWN 42
0
88.6%
Brady Farlow punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:3488% → 91%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
88.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+5
88.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
88.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
88.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 4 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
88.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
88.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 5 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
88.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
88.4%
Sam Ehlinger run for 7 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
88.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 18 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
88.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 14 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.0%
Collin Johnson 6 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:0510% → 10%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
90.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 8 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
89.7%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
89.8%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+6
89.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 6 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+7
89.6%
Justin Henderson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 37 Justin Henderson fumbled, forced by Jacoby Jones, recovered by Texas Brandon JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:3491% → 95%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
91.0%
Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+28
95.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 28 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 4:276% → 5%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
94.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
94.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 12 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.2%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
94.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Smoke Harris for 12 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
93.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 2 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
94.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 7 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+15
93.8%
Smith, J'Mar pass incomplete to Hardy, Adrian, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Boyce, Kobe) 15 yards to the TEXAS21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LATECH.Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
93.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 22Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OPP 22
-5
94.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Cee Jay Powell) to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
93.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+3
94.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 3 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+43
94.6%
Bailey Hale 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2396% → 96%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
95.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
96.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 5 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
96.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
95.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cee Jay Powell at the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:325% → 5%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
94.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 13 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
94.9%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Joseph Ossai return for 16 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0897% → 97%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
96.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
96.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+2
96.6%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
96.5%
Cameron Dicker 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:185% → 4%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 2 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
95.7%
TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeffrey McCulloch) to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
95.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
95.6%
Brady Farlow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jake Smith at the Texas 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:3597% → 97%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
96.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 5 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
96.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Cade Brewer for 3 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
97.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 6 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
97.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 27 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 5 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-6
96.8%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Connor Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 31Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
96.7%
Cameron Dicker 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:594% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 12 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for 5 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
95.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 10 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
95.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 13 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
96.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 6 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
96.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
96.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
95.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for no gain to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5598% → 100%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 5 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
97.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
97.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 11 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
97.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+9
97.8%
Sam Ehlinger run for 9 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
97.8%
Devin Duvernay run for 2 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
98.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 22 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.6%
Brennan Eagles 25 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:521% → 1%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
99.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the LaTch 14Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+17
99.5%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 17 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
99.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 7 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
99.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 14 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
99.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Jake Smith for 4 yds to the Texas 43Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+12
99.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 12 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 21 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
99.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
99.7%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Parker Braun) to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+14
99.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 14 yds to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
99.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 1 yd to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Smoke Harris for 18 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.8%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 3
50
+19
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 19 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 11 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for 13 yds to the Texas 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 2 yds to the Texas 5Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 5 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.8%
Roschon Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 27Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Chris BrownSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Marcus Washington) to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 48 yds , Michael Sam returns for no gain to the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:520% → 1%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Smoke Harris for 13 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+8
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
J'Mar Smith run for 5 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+13
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 13 yds to the Texas 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the Texas 24Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Brandon Jones) to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Javonte WoodardSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.5%
Roschon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+11
99.5%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Jordan Pouncey for 11 yds to the Texas 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.6%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Al'Vonte Woodard) to the Texas 42Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+9
99.6%
Casey Thompson run for 9 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+1
99.7%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 1 yd to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cee Jay Powell at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
99.4%
Westin Elliott pass complete to DeAndre Marcus for 9 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+7
99.3%
DeAndre Marcus run for 7 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Westin Elliott pass incomplete to Joshua MatthewsSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Westin Elliott pass intercepted DeMarvion Overshown return for no gain to the LaTch 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.7%
Casey Thompson pass incomplete to Marcus WashingtonSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.7%
Roschon Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+4
99.8%
Roschon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.8%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 13 yds to the LaTch 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Bobby Holly run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
100.0%
Bobby Holly run for 1 yd to the LaTch 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:26
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Brennan Eagles for 28 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 13:20
Collin Johnson 6 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)
+2.5
TD · Q3 9:06
Brennan Eagles 25 Yd pass from Sam Ehlinger (Cameron Dicker Kick)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com