Try the model
TEX

Texas 27 at TCU 37

TCU
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:30 · Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:11: Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 17 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +11.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:30: Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +19.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:17: Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 44 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +24.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:50: Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK) — TEX win probability +28.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:59: Max Duggan run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +10.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:30TCU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:32TEX 4th & 1 at TCU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:25TCU 4th & 4 at TEX 14, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:45TEX 4th & 7 at TEX 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:00TEX 4th & 7 at TCU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:51TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:23TEX 4th & 15 at TCU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:22TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:33TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.9%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23TEX 4th & 3 at TEX 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:50TCU 4th & 8 at TCU 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:33TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:43TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−3.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:28TCU 4th & 5 at TEX 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−9.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:53TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEX made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 12:18TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:57TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:11TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:30TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:17TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:50TEX Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:59TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:2051% → 52%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.8%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
50.9%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
51.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 11 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
51.2%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
51.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 1
50
0
51.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 1
50
0
51.6%
Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brandon Jones at the Texas 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:4949% → 49%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
51.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 17 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
51.3%
Ehlinger, Sam rush for 8 yards to the TEXAS42, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Angilau, Junior) 10 yards to the TEXAS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+20
51.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 20 yds to the Texas 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
51.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
51.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 6 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
50.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
50.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
50.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 2 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+26
51.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 26 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
50.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+7
50.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
50.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+21
50.9%
Cameron Dicker 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:5451% → 52%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.1%
Jalen Reagor run for 11 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
51.1%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
52.4%
Max Duggan pass intercepted Brandon Jones return for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 24 TEXAS Penalty, Illegal Block (12 Yards) to the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:0249% → 49%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
51.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
51.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 20Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+8
51.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 8 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
51.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
51.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Garret Wallow return for 12 yds to the Texas 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0553% → 53%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
52.7%
Jalen Reagor run for 5 yds to the Texas 15Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
52.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the Texas 14Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
52.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
Q1 2:25
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
53.2%
Jonathan Song 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2948% → 47%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.9%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
51.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Al'Vonte WoodardSimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
52.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Cade BrewerSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:1453% → 60%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
53.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+7
54.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 7 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
54.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
54.7%
Max Duggan run for no gain to the Texas 46Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
54.4%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Wells, Pro, PENALTY TEXAS roughing passer (Coburn, Keondre) 15 yards to the TEXAS31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
55.3%
Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+6
55.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the Texas 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
55.6%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-5
55.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 24Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+24
60.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 24 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2141% → 50%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
59.1%
Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the Texas 29 TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Texas 19Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 16
OWN 36
+32
59.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 17 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
57.9%
Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+47
50.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 47 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:2050% → 49%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.6%
Keaontay Ingram run for no gain to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
49.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 15 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
49.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
49.3%
Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the TCU 8Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
50.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
51.5%
Cameron Dicker 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5354% → 53%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
54.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Carter Ware for 2 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
54.0%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
53.6%
Darius Anderson run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
52.9%
Jordy Sandy punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2851% → 48%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
48.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Junior Angilau) to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
49.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
50.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Roschon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 15
OPP 47
0
51.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
52.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5454% → 53%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
54.0%
Darius Anderson run for 1 yd to the TCU 3Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
54.0%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Te'Vailance HuntSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+11
52.9%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
54.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+1
54.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
53.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 6
OWN 18
-7
52.6%
Dillon Jones punt for 58 yds , Jake Smith returns for no gain to the Tex 24, J. Smith fumbled, recovered by J. Smith at Tex 17.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 1:3749% → 65%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
51.1%
Sam Ehlinger sacked by Corey Bethley for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 11Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 16
OWN 11
0
51.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 16
OWN 11
+25
52.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 25 yds to the Texas 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
50.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 28 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
47.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 8 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+11
46.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 11 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
46.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
34.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 17 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14END OF HALF
14 plays · 60 yds · 1:0040% → 49%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+17
40.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 17 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
40.3%
Max Duggan pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 8 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+10
41.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
41.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 11 yds to the Texas 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
41.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the Texas 42Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
42.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+8
41.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 8 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+52
49.2%
Griffin Kell 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:2855% → 55%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
44.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
44.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for no gain to the Texas 34Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
45.8%
Ryan Bujcevski run for 3 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
44.2%
Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
43.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
44.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1746% → 44%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
46.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 9 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
46.5%
Duggan, Max rush for 6 yards to the TCU41, PENALTY TCU holding (McKinney, Anthony) 10 yards to the TCU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+6
45.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 6 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+6
45.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 6 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
45.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Dillon Jones punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:5456% → 67%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
44.2%
Roschon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Texas 29Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
44.3%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 2 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+63
45.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 63 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
39.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 1 yd to the TCU 5Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Reese LeitaoSimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
41.0%
Ehlinger, Sam pass complete to Johnson, Collin for 5 yards to the TCU0, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Johnson, Collin) 15 yards to the TCU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
42.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 0
OPP 20
+38
33.5%
Cameron Dicker 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5437% → 61%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
37.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 7 yds to the TCU 37Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
39.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+51
39.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 51 yds to the Texas 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.3%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5948% → 47%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.1%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 2 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
51.4%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 28Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Ar'Darius Washington return for no gain to the Texas 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
77.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 44 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3729% → 26%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.5%
Keaontay Ingram run for 1 yd to the Texas 26Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
73.0%
Sam Ehlinger run for 1 yd to the Texas 27Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
74.2%
Chris Naggar punt for 54 yds, downed at the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3277% → 77%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
77.1%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
77.7%
Max Duggan sacked by Juwan Mitchell for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 23Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+4
79.3%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
78.4%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
77.4%
Dillon Jones punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Texas 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3526% → 25%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
73.7%
Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
75.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Trevon Moehrig return for no gain to the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:1184% → 85%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
83.9%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the Texas 32Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+11
84.4%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the Texas 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
85.0%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
85.6%
Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Texas 13Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-3
84.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 16Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
84.7%
Jonathan Song 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3116% → 43%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Roschon Johnson run for no gain to the Texas 25Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Collin Johnson for 12 yds to the Texas 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+20
86.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Roschon Johnson for 5 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Innis Gaines) to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
84.9%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
84.1%
Sam Ehlinger run for 16 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
83.8%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Parker Braun) to the TCU 22Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
84.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+4
85.0%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 4 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+13
87.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to John Burt for 13 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
85.6%
Roschon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.4%
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4171% → 95%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.8%
Jalen Reagor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
71.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye BarberSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
70.0%
Max Duggan pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 16 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
76.3%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
77.1%
Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
82.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 45Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
86.4%
Max Duggan sacked by Juwan Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 47Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+36
84.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 36 yds to the Texas 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.4%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27INT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:556% → 5%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.4%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Devin DuvernaySimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.2%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 3 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
94.5%
Sam Ehlinger run for 10 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.5%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Sam Ehlinger pass incomplete to Collin JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+1
94.6%
Sam Ehlinger pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for 1 yd to the Texas 34Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
94.8%
Sam Ehlinger pass intercepted Innis Gaines return for no gain to the Texas 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2496% → 96%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
95.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the Texas 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
95.8%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the Texas 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:50
Roschon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
-28.1
TD · Q3 4:17
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 44 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+24.8
TD · Q3 5:30
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com