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SMU

SMU 41 at TCU 38

TCU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:44 · Jordy Sandy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Pregame prior+15.5Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK) — SMU win probability +13.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:09: Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +15.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:58: Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK) — SMU win probability +16.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:43: Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +21.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 3:37: Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +29.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:57SMU 4th & 1 at TCU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:51SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00SMU 4th & 8 at TCU 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:44TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:28TCU 4th & 9 at SMU 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:59TCU 4th & 18 at SMU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:17SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 11, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−3.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:25TCU 4th & 1 at SMU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−4.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−18.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:50TCU 4th & 6 at TCU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 25, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:36SMU 4th & 9 at TCU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−10.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:35TCU 4th & 3 at SMU 34, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%−1.2
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−11.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:42SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:57TCU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:05TCU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:44SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:13SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:09TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:58SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:43TCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:37TCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:1828% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
72.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+46
72.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 46 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
72.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
72.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.4%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Hogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.5%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.4%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
71.4%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Davis, A., PENALTY SMU offside defense (PAUL, Nelson) 5 yards to the TCU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
71.4%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
71.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 27 , James Proche returns for 3 yds to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 72 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
70.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+16
70.5%
Xavier Jones run for 16 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
70.4%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
70.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+35
70.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 35 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
70.3%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
70.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+6
70.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the TCU 9Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+5
70.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
70.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
70.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
70.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 4 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.4%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the TCU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
67.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd to the TCU 4 Sewo Olonilua fumbled, forced by Richard McBryde, recovered by SMU Patrick NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0633% → 37%
Q1 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
66.9%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the TCU 2Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.9%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the TCU 1Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (K. Freeman Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5965% → 66%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
64.6%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+29
64.7%
Jalen Reagor run for 29 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
65.1%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
65.1%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+7
64.9%
Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
65.1%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
65.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
65.9%
Darius Anderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.3%
TJ McDaniel run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
64.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
64.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr., broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+54
65.2%
Warren Scott punt for 44 yds, downed at the TCU 27 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the TCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
63.4%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
63.6%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
63.6%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 30
-8
62.9%
Max Duggan sacked by Turner Coxe for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 23 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by SMU Demerick Gary , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0638% → 40%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
61.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-2
61.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 25Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+4
62.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 4 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
60.4%
Luke Hogan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.5%
Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
60.8%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 24 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by SMU Toby NdukweSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
59.0%
Reggie Roberson Jr. run for 1 yd to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
59.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
59.4%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted, touchback. Ar'Darius Washington return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4459% → 68%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+77
59.2%
Darius Anderson run for 77 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.0%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
64.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
65.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Jeff GladneySimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
65.8%
Trevor Denbow punt for 55 yds, downed at the TCU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
64.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Ar'mani JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
64.5%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the TCU 13Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+22
63.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 22 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
65.1%
Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
66.3%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
64.9%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
64.3%
Jordy Sandy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:0138% → 48%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
62.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
62.7%
Shane Buechele run for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
61.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+44
61.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 44 yds to the TCU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
60.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
60.3%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Hogan PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:0855% → 55%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
55.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
55.5%
Sewo Olonilua run for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
55.4%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
56.5%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+21
56.4%
Darius Anderson run for 21 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
56.5%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+5
56.0%
Duggan, Max sacked for loss of 5 yards to the SMU24 (NELSON, Patrick), PENALTY SMU offside defense (NELSON, Patrick) 5 yards to the SMU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+2
56.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
52.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Sewo OloniluaSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
54.9%
Jonathan Song 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:0850% → 67%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
50.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
50.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+16
50.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 16 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
49.6%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
45.5%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
45.5%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+1
45.5%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the TCU 17Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+8
46.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 8 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
32.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
38.6%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
38.5%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
39.3%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
39.2%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Dylan ThomasSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
38.6%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 2 yds to the TCU 39Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+30
38.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 30 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
41.6%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-8
41.6%
Max Duggan sacked by Delano Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 18
OPP 39
0
39.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to Jalen Reagor for no gain to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 14:59
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
38.7%
Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds, downed at the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
30.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+5
31.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+3
31.6%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+23
32.2%
Trevor Denbow punt for 35 yds , Jalen Reagor returns for 23 yds to the SMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:2734% → 49%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
33.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 10 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
33.9%
Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
33.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen Reagor, broken up by Ar'mani JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+12
48.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 12 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
41.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-9
42.4%
Shane Buechele sacked by Garret Wallow and Jeff Gladney for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
44.6%
Trevor Denbow punt for 29 yds, downed at the SMU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
47.9%
Derius Davis run for 19 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.8%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
49.7%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 10 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
49.8%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
49.8%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
47.8%
Alex Delton run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-6
46.1%
Sewo Olonilua sacked by Patrick Nelson and Delano Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 3:0564% → 90%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
36.5%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+16
36.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 16 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 5 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+23
33.6%
Xavier Jones run for 23 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
32.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+8
32.1%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
32.1%
BUECHELE, Shane pass complete to ROBERSON JR, Re for 18 yards to the TCU3, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SMU illegal touching (ROBERSON JR, Re) 0 yards to the TCU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+16
29.6%
Shane Buechele run for 16 yds to the TCU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
29.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
18.2%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
18.6%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
17.9%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Pro WellsSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
17.4%
Jordy Sandy punt for 52 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
10.4%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-1
10.4%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+5
10.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
10.9%
Shane Buechele punt for 36 yds , Trevon Moehrig returns for no gain to the TCU 31 Trevon Moehrig fumbled, recovered by TCU Trevon Moehrig , return for 7 yds to the TCU 32 TCU Penalty, personal foul (Garret Wallow) to the TCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 27TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:1516% → 40%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
15.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 7 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+11
16.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Dylan Thomas for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
17.4%
Max Duggan pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 14 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
17.9%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for 32 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.8%
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:0775% → 87%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
23.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
22.1%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
22.4%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
22.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Innis GainesSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+38
22.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 38 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
17.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
17.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen Granson, broken up by Dee WintersSimilar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-3
18.6%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 15Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
13.4%
Russell Roberts 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 29TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 2:5013% → 45%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
12.8%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the TCU 25Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
12.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 9 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
13.3%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Dylan ThomasSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
13.0%
Max Duggan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+15
12.1%
Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Stephens, John, PENALTY SMU pass interference (NELSON, Patrick) 15 yards to the TCU49, 1ST DOWN TCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
15.1%
Max Duggan pass complete to Darius Anderson for no gain to the TCU 49Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
14.6%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
16.1%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+11
18.2%
Max Duggan pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
18.2%
Max Duggan run for 11 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
18.2%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius Davis, broken up by Ar'mani JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
15.1%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Artayvious Lynn, broken up by Demerick GarySimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
44.5%
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · -22 yds · 0:5572% → 73%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.3%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
25.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 3 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SMU Xavier JonesSimilar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 32
OWN 3
0
29.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 32
OWN 3
0
27.3%
Trevor Denbow punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0046% → 42%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
46.4%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+2
46.4%
Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
45.4%
Max Duggan run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 34 Max Duggan fumbled, recovered by TCU Max Duggan , return for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
41.8%
Max Duggan pass incomplete to Darius Anderson, broken up by Delano RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
9.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-2
9.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:37
Max Duggan pass complete to Pro Wells for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+29.4
TD · Q4 9:43
Max Duggan pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
+21.9
TD · Q4 13:58
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Russell Roberts KICK)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com